EXPERIMENT 003 · WHERE SOURCES DISAGREE

Cross-source contradiction, rendered as a claim ledger

Pollar Research
opened July 2026 · last revised July 2026
STATUS: MOCKUP · real cluster, hand-extracted claims · no bench entry yet

Abstract

When two newsrooms publish two different numbers for the same event, most readers never find out. This experiment renders the disagreement itself. Every dispatch in one cluster is reduced to its claims, and the claims are compared: corroborated, contradicted, compatible under composition, silent, or stale. The specimen below is real. Over one weekend our pipeline collected fifteen dispatches from fifteen newsrooms in six languages, all counting the dead of one prison riot; the counts disagreed for thirty hours. The claims were extracted by hand. The instrument that would extract them automatically is the future experiment; this page is its target interface.

1The artifact

Fig. 1 is the ledger: every source's latest claim on one quantity, read as of a chosen minute. Fig. 2 is the same quantity over thirty hours. Both are interactive; every value opens the verbatim sentence it was extracted from, in its original language, with a link to the dispatch.

EXPERIMENT 003 · REAL CLUSTER · CLAIMS EXTRACTED BY HAND, NOT BY THE PIPELINE
sourcepublishedkilledguardsattribution
aljazeera.com Mon 08:31 19Σ 4 medical official
mediapart.fr Mon 08:33 19Σ 4 source médicale (medical source)
noticiasaominuto.com Mon 09:02 15 19Σ 4 fonte médica (medical source)
niezalezna.pl Mon 09:07 19 lokalne służby (local services)
ct24.ceskatelevize.cz Mon 09:27 19Σ 4 zdravotnické zdroje via AFP (medical sources)
reuters.com Mon 09:41 25 two police sources and one hospital source
sourcepublishedkilledguardsattribution
aljazeera.com Mon 08:31 19Σ 4 medical official
mediapart.fr Mon 08:33 19Σ 4 source médicale (medical source)
noticiasaominuto.com Mon 09:02 15 19Σ 4 fonte médica (medical source)
niezalezna.pl Mon 09:07 19 lokalne służby (local services)
ct24.ceskatelevize.cz Mon 09:27 19Σ 4 zdravotnické zdroje via AFP (medical sources)
reuters.com Mon 09:41 25 two police sources and one hospital source
dw.com Mon 10:57 25 officials
bbc.co.uk Mon 12:54 25 4 unattributed
tagesschau.de Mon 12:57 25 unattributed
lemonde.fr Mon 13:16 23 6 les autorités (authorities)
spiegel.de Mon 15:42 26Σ 7 Behördenangaben (authorities)
Fig. 1. The claim ledger. One real event, one quantity, every source's latest claim as of a chosen minute. Struck values are headlines contradicted by their own body text; Σ marks claims made as a composition; ∅ means the source is silent on that quantity. Click a row for the verbatim quote.
15 20 25 Tue 00:00 Mon 08:00 Tue 10:00 19 19 19 19 19 25 25 25 25 23 26 26 26 27 25
Fig. 2. The same quantity over thirty hours. Hollow points are claims published after a higher official toll was already on the record. The instrument's verdicts for notable pairs are listed below. Click a point for the quote.
  • CONTRADICTS reuters.com vs ct24.ceskatelevize.cz · 25 versus 19, published 14 minutes apart, different sourcing chains: police plus hospital versus medical sources.
  • COMPATIBLE ct24.ceskatelevize.cz vs aljazeera.com · Different surface numbers, same composition: 15 inmates plus 4 guards equals 19.
  • CONTRADICTS noticiasaominuto.com vs itself · The headline says 15; the article's own lead counts 15 detainees plus 4 guards, which is 19.
  • CONTRADICTS lemonde.fr vs bbc.co.uk · 23 versus 25, 22 minutes apart, both citing authorities.
  • CONTRADICTS lemonde.fr vs bbc.co.uk · Six guards versus four guards among the dead.
  • CORROBORATED spiegel.de vs theguardian.com · 26 dead with the same composition, seven guards, from two independent newsrooms.
  • CONTRADICTS spiegel.de vs tagesschau.de · More than 75 versus around 100 injured, both from German public-facing wires on the same day.
  • SILENT reuters.com · The highest early count never breaks down inmates versus guards.
  • STALE sapo.pt vs 7sur7.be · 25 published 96 minutes after the toll had officially risen to 27.
  • COMPATIBLE dw.com vs itself · Vague lead, exact body: 'more than two dozen' resolves to 'at least 25' within the same dispatch.

2The specimen

Negombo prison, Sri Lanka, 6 and 7 July 2026. The riot entered our pipeline at 08:31 UTC on Monday as nineteen dead, on the word of a hospital director. Fourteen minutes after the Czech public broadcaster repeated nineteen, Reuters carried twenty-five from two police sources. Le Monde's twenty-three arrived mid-afternoon citing the authorities, twenty-two minutes after the BBC's twenty-five cited the same. By evening the composition itself disagreed: four, six, or seven guards among the dead. The toll settled at twenty-seven on Tuesday morning, and one newsroom published twenty-five an hour and a half later. None of this is a scandal. It is what honest early coverage of a chaotic event looks like, which is exactly why an instrument that reads the disagreement is worth building.

Quotes are verbatim from our ingestion record, timestamps are from the source articles as collected, and the full extraction table is downloadable: extraction.json, extraction.csv, cluster-query.sql.

3Journal

2026-07 · why this is a mockup and not a demo
The ledger, the timeline, and the verdict vocabulary are settled; the claims behind them were extracted by hand from fifteen dispatches. What does not yet exist is the extractor: span-grounded claim extraction across six languages, at cluster scale, with the compositional arithmetic done by the system rather than by us. That work lands with the autumn extraction pipeline, and the detection run it enables will be preregistered before it touches data.
2026-07 · what the ledger does not say
No newsroom named on this page was wrong. Early casualty tolls move because hospitals, police, and ministries count different things at different hours; a headline can lag its own body text by an editing cycle. The instrument's thesis is precisely that divergence is a signal to inspect, not an accusation. Where a claim was published after a higher official figure, the verdict is stale, and that is the strongest word this page uses.
2026-07 · what would kill it
Extraction precision below usefulness on multilingual input, and cost per cluster at frontier prices. A ledger that misreads one number in twenty is worse than no ledger. Both get bench measures before this experiment claims anything.

4Reported results

None yet. Under Rule 1, this experiment cannot appear in an edition until it has a bench entry. The first extraction-precision run publishes here, whatever it says.