{ "generated": "2026-07-11", "protocol": "PREREG §8 — matching sweep over all 28 kept questions; venue priority Polymarket > Metaculus > Kalshi > Manifold", "result": "0 of 28 questions have a qualifying crowd anchor; every near-miss recorded with its failing axis", "humanConfirmation": "PENDING — Jakub to confirm the four closest discards (q-3fe38d6e-1 Starmer, q-a6d095e7-1 US-Iran, q-8d9dba5d-2 Sanchez, q-6c2b0c97-2 Toy Story 5)", "venueAccess": { "polymarketGamma": "reachable only via non-ISP DNS (Polish gambling-domain register NXDOMAINs the domain); searched via 1.1.1.1-resolved IP", "kalshi": "reachable via the same DNS workaround", "metaculus": "UNREACHABLE unauthenticated — API returns 403 for all endpoints; venue #2 not searched; token re-sweep pending operator answer", "manifold": "fully reachable", "adjacentNews": "api.data.adj.news does not resolve; fell back to Gamma text search per §8" }, "entries": [ { "questionId": "q-05d64025-1", "subject": "Christian Eriksen announces retirement from professional football", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T18:27:53Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Christian Eriksen announce retirement by EOM June", "whyFails": "Same subject and condition, but market deadline is June 30 2026 vs question deadline July 7 2026 18:27Z — 7 days apart, fails ±24h; also play-money with only 5 bettors", "idOrSlug": "christian-eriksen-announce-retireme", "closeTime": "2026-06-30T23:59Z", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$133 / 5 bettors" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-12b79b13-1", "subject": "Latvia MoD/NAF officially attributes June 8 drone to Russia", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-08T07:35:01Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will a russian missile fly into a NATO country by the end of 2025?", "whyFails": "Different event class (missile incursion, not attribution statement), different country scope, 2025 deadline", "idOrSlug": "will-a-russian-missile-fly-into-a-n", "closeTime": "2025-12-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "19 bettors" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [latvia drone / russian drone latvia / drone shot down latvia] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-16d4db8b-1", "subject": "Council of the EU formally adopts EU-US trade agreement regulations", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-03T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "US-EU trade agreement by July 9?", "whyFails": "2025 market about concluding a trade agreement, not the 2026 Council adoption of implementing regulations; closed July 2025", "idOrSlug": "us-eu-trade-agreement-by-july-9", "closeTime": "2025-07-09", "volumeOrForecasters": "$257,031" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [eu us trade / eu tariffs / eu council regulation] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-16d4db8b-2", "subject": "EU-US trade regulations published in the Official Journal of the EU", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [eu us trade / official journal] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-2b08e558-1", "subject": "Spain INE flash CPI (June 2026, annual rate) >= 3.3%", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-05T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Kalshi", "title": "CPI in June [In Jun 2026]", "whyFails": "US BLS CPI, not Spanish INE IPC — wrong country and wrong statistical release", "idOrSlug": "KXCPI-26JUN", "volumeOrForecasters": "745,432 contracts" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [spain inflation / spain cpi / spain cpi june] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-2e4a0893-1", "subject": "Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un issue a joint statement during June 2026 DPRK visit", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T04:20:37Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will Xi JingPing and Kim Jong-un meet in person in year 2026?", "whyFails": "Condition is an in-person meeting, not the issuance of a joint statement/communique; closes Dec 31 2026, fails ±24h; play-money, 6 bettors", "idOrSlug": "will-xi-jingping-and-kim-jongun-mee-62ef73810672", "closeTime": "2026-12-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$242 / 6 bettors" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-356eb3b6-2", "subject": "Santos Cerdán ceases to be a deputy in the Congreso de los Diputados", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-02T12:40:37Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [cerdan (Polymarket text search returns only Cardano-crypto and esports noise)] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-37435e85-2", "subject": "SNRIU/Energoatom report radiation above safety limits at CSFSF near Chernobyl", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T09:01:21Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "IAEA confirms Russian responsibility for Chernobyl drone attack by April 1st 2025", "whyFails": "Prior 2025 event, attribution-of-attack condition rather than radiation-threshold report; resolved", "idOrSlug": "iaea-confirms-russian-responsibilit", "closeTime": "2025-04-01", "volumeOrForecasters": "13 bettors" }, { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will Russia breach a nuclear reactor in Ukraine resulting in a radiation release of >10^-4 chernobyls", "whyFails": "Reactor breach with quantified release, not a CSFSF operational-limit report; closes 2030", "idOrSlug": "will-russia-breach-a-nuclear-reacto", "closeTime": "2030", "volumeOrForecasters": "7 bettors" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-3d03e1d7-1", "subject": "Andrij Sybiha returns his Polish Order of Merit", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will FIFA president Gianni Infantino renounce his Russian Order of Friendship award?", "whyFails": "Closest textual hit only: different person, different award, resolved 2022", "idOrSlug": "will-fifa-president-gianni-infantin", "closeTime": "2022-12-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "5 bettors" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [sybiha / order of merit] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-3d03e1d7-2", "subject": "Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdansk (June 25-26) postponed or canceled", "deadlineUtc": "2026-06-26T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [ukraine reconstruction / gdansk (all Gdansk hits are ITF tennis matches)] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-3fe38d6e-1", "subject": "Keir Starmer remains UK Prime Minister through July 10, 2026", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? (event: Starmer officially leaves office by…?)", "whyFails": "Complement of the question (leave-by vs remain-through) with clean subject match, but the event's date buckets are June 30 / July 17 / July 31 — no bucket within ±24h of July 10; nearest (July 17) is 7 days late", "idOrSlug": "starmer-officially-leaves-office-by-20260622151447063", "closeTime": "2026-07-17T23:59Z", "volumeOrForecasters": "$64,289" }, { "venue": "Kalshi", "title": "Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1 / Jul 23 / Jul 24 / Aug 1, 2026? (series KXLEAVESTARMER)", "whyFails": "No bucket within ±24h of July 10 (gap between Jul 1 and Jul 23); entire series also stopped trading 2026-06-22 when Starmer's departure was announced, so no live price near the snapshot", "idOrSlug": "KXLEAVESTARMER", "closeTime": "2026-06-22T11:54Z (early close)", "volumeOrForecasters": "4,166,544 contracts series total" }, { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "whyFails": "Multi-date market with answers June 30 2026 / July 31 2026 / Dec 31 2026 — no July 10 answer, nearest is 10 days off", "idOrSlug": "on-what-dates-will-keir-starmer-sti", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$318,397 / 216 bettors" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-481c3dfd-1", "subject": "New York Knicks hold a public 2026 NBA championship parade in NYC", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Kalshi", "title": "What will the Knicks say during their Championship Parade? (City Hall Ceremony, Jun 18)", "whyFails": "Mention-market conditioned on parade content, not on whether a parade occurs by a deadline; pegged to the June 18 ceremony", "idOrSlug": "KXATHLETEMENTION-26JUN18", "closeTime": "2026-06-18", "volumeOrForecasters": "178,705 contracts" }, { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "Will Mamdani cancel class Thursday for the Knicks parade?", "whyFails": "Different condition (school closure), ended June 19, and volume $1,528 is far below the $10k venue threshold", "idOrSlug": "will-mamdani-cancel-class-thursday-for-the-knicks-parade-20260615160813579", "closeTime": "2026-06-19", "volumeOrForecasters": "$1,528" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-6c2b0c97-2", "subject": "Toy Story 5 is #1 at the domestic weekend box office, June 19-21 2026", "deadlineUtc": "2026-06-25T12:00:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "\"Toy Story 5\" Opening Weekend Box Office (bracket markets, e.g. 145m-158m)", "whyFails": "Same film and weekend but the market's threshold is gross-dollar brackets, not rank-#1 of the weekend chart — different threshold semantics; market end June 22 vs question deadline June 25 is also outside ±24h", "idOrSlug": "toy-story-5-opening-weekend-box-office", "closeTime": "2026-06-22T12:00Z", "volumeOrForecasters": "$686,369" }, { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will Toy Story 5 gross $162.5M or more domestically in its opening weekend?", "whyFails": "Gross threshold, not weekend rank", "idOrSlug": "will-toy-story-5-gross-1625m-or-mor", "closeTime": "2026-06-22", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$10,496 / 51 bettors" }, { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?", "whyFails": "Year-long biggest-opening contest, not the June 19-21 weekend chart", "idOrSlug": "which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026", "closeTime": "2026-12-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "$1,681,999" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-7ab6c1d8-1", "subject": "Real Madrid officially announce signing of Marc Cucurella from Chelsea", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Kalshi", "title": "KXJOINCLUB 'Next Club' player-transfer series", "whyFails": "Series exists for other players (Julian Alvarez, Rodrygo, Haaland, ...) but has no Cucurella market", "idOrSlug": "KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02*" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [cucurella / real madrid transfer] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-8d9dba5d-1", "subject": "Spanish Congress approves motion urging Sanchez to dissolve Cortes and call elections (week of June 15)", "deadlineUtc": "2026-06-23T10:27:57Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "¿Habra mocion de censura al presidente Sanchez en España antes de Agosto del 26?", "whyFails": "A censure motion (mocion de censura) is a different parliamentary instrument from a motion urging dissolution/elections; closes Aug 2026, fails ±24h; play-money, 10 bettors", "idOrSlug": "habra-mocion-de-censura-al-presiden", "closeTime": "2026-07-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$279 / 10 bettors" }, { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?", "whyFails": "No-confidence vote, not a motion urging election call; June 30 deadline vs June 23", "idOrSlug": "no-confidence-vote-against-spain-pm-sanchez-by-june-30", "closeTime": "2026-06-30", "volumeOrForecasters": "$13,692" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-8d9dba5d-2", "subject": "Pedro Sanchez officially announces dissolution of Cortes and early general elections", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? (event: Spain snap election called by...?)", "whyFails": "Same subject and same condition family, but buckets are June 30 2026 and Aug 31 2026 — neither within ±24h of July 10 (10 and 52 days off)", "idOrSlug": "spain-snap-election-called-by", "closeTime": "2026-06-30 / 2026-08-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "$85,708 / $3,697" }, { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "Spain snap election called in 2026?", "whyFails": "Dec 31 2026 deadline, fails ±24h", "idOrSlug": "spain-snap-election-called-in-2026", "closeTime": "2026-12-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "$31,530" }, { "venue": "Kalshi", "title": "Will Spain announce a snap election this year?", "whyFails": "Dec 31 2026 deadline; volume 224 contracts also far below the $10k threshold", "idOrSlug": "KXSNAPELECTIONSPAIN-27JAN01", "closeTime": "2026-12-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "224 contracts" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-a52acc1b-1", "subject": "UK FCDO/MoD formally summons Russian Ambassador over June 16 Channel yacht incident", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "Will Russia's ambassador to any EU country be recalled or expelled before June 1?", "whyFails": "2022 market, recall/expulsion not a summons, wrong country scope", "idOrSlug": "will-russias-ambassador-to-any-eu-country-be-recalled-or-expelled-before-june-1", "closeTime": "2022-06-01", "volumeOrForecasters": "$18,773" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [russian ambassador / russian yacht / english channel] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-a6d095e7-1", "subject": "US and Iran sign bilateral agreement formally ending the war or permanently extending the ceasefire", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-05T23:37:56Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? / by July 31, 2026? (event: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?)", "whyFails": "Same subject and near-identical condition, but the question deadline July 5 falls between the June 30 and July 31 buckets — 5 and 26 days off, both fail ±24h", "idOrSlug": "us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by", "closeTime": "2026-06-30 / 2026-07-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "$49.0M / $12.7M" }, { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?", "whyFails": "Condition matches almost verbatim but deadline Aug 31 vs July 5 — 57 days, fails ±24h", "idOrSlug": "will-the-us-and-iran-sign-a-formal", "closeTime": "2026-08-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$1,137 / 23 bettors" }, { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? / July 31, 2026?", "whyFails": "Nuclear deal, not an end-of-war/permanent-ceasefire agreement — different threshold semantics, and no July 5 bucket", "idOrSlug": "us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412", "closeTime": "2026-06-30 / 2026-07-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "$3.18M / $0.89M" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-a79d1f07-1", "subject": "Spain average Social Security affiliation (June 2026) > 22,450,000", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-02T07:12:21Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Kalshi", "title": "country unemployment-rate series (Russia/Germany/China/Brazil UE)", "whyFails": "No Spain series, and affiliation count is a different statistic from an unemployment rate", "idOrSlug": "KXUE-*" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [spain social security / spain employment] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-a79d1f07-2", "subject": "Spain registered unemployment (paro registrado, June 2026) < 2,280,000", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-02T07:12:21Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Kalshi", "title": "Unemployment rate in July? (US, KXECONSTATU3-26JUL)", "whyFails": "US unemployment rate, not Spain's SEPE registered-unemployment count", "idOrSlug": "KXECONSTATU3-26JUL", "volumeOrForecasters": "37,574 contracts" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [spain unemployment / paro registrado] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-b0699fe8-2", "subject": "Kevin Warsh delivers a public speech or press conference as Fed Chair, Jun 24 - Jul 10", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?", "whyFails": "Mention-market about content of the June 17-18 FOMC press conference, which predates the question's June 24 window start; no market on whether he speaks at all in the window", "idOrSlug": "what-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-june-press-conference-20260608181155516", "closeTime": "2026-06-18", "volumeOrForecasters": "$177,751" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-b5d8bf44-1", "subject": "Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn officially names a successor to the throne", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will Kim Ju Ae be formally designated as the heir to Kim Jong Un in 2026?", "whyFails": "Closest formally-designated-heir market found, but wrong country and monarch (DPRK, not Thailand); closes Dec 31 2026", "idOrSlug": "will-kim-ju-ae-be-formally-designat", "closeTime": "2026-12-31", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$790 / 14 bettors" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [thailand king / vajiralongkorn / thai succession / thai king heir] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-ccdd5a0b-1", "subject": "Meta officially attributes the June 12 2026 outage to a cyberattack/external malicious activity", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will \"DNS\" be implicated in the March 5th Meta outage?", "whyFails": "Concerns the March 2024 outage, not June 12 2026; resolved long ago", "idOrSlug": "will-dns-be-implicated-in-the-march", "closeTime": "2024-04-04", "volumeOrForecasters": "22 bettors" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [meta outage 2026 (Polymarket/Kalshi hits are all META stock-price markets)] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-ccdd5a0b-2", "subject": "CISA issues an official advisory/alert mentioning the June 12 2026 Meta outage", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will CISA add at least 25 vulnerabilities to the KEV catalog in May 2026?", "whyFails": "Same agency but unrelated condition (KEV catalog cadence) and May 2026 window", "idOrSlug": "will-cisa-add-at-least-25-vulnerabi", "closeTime": "2026-06-08", "volumeOrForecasters": "5 bettors" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [cisa meta] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-cf1415d8-2", "subject": "Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas hold an official bilateral meeting or joint press conference, Jun 25 - Jul 10", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [kallas / gideon saar (only NATO-SecGen and Israeli-election markets surface)] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-e8968a75-1", "subject": "Armand Duplantis wins his first World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition on/after June 14 2026", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T16:36:03Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record?", "whyFails": "World-record height market, not win/lose of a specific next competition; closes 2026+", "idOrSlug": "how-far-will-armand-duplantis-take", "volumeOrForecasters": "M$16,428 / 17 bettors" }, { "venue": "Polymarket", "title": "Pole Vault Winner (M)", "whyFails": "Paris 2024 Olympic final market, resolved 2024", "idOrSlug": "pole-vault-gold-medal-winner", "closeTime": "2024-08-05", "volumeOrForecasters": "$3,929" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-fef4bee5-1", "subject": "UK MoD/NCA announce release of the sanctioned tanker Smyrtos from UK custody", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will the US seize Russian shadow fleet tanker Marinera?", "whyFails": "Different vessel, different navy (US), seizure not release, resolved Jan 2026", "idOrSlug": "will-the-us-seize-russian-shadow-fl", "closeTime": "2026-01-07", "volumeOrForecasters": "24 bettors" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [smyrtos (zero hits on any venue; 'tanker' hits are Hormuz-traffic and Venezuela markets)] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" }, { "questionId": "q-fef4bee5-2", "subject": "Russian MFA publishes statement condemning interception of / demanding release of the Smyrtos", "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z", "candidates": [], "nearMisses": [ { "venue": "Manifold", "title": "Will Russia retaliate to the US's capture of Russian oil tanker ships", "whyFails": "Different incident (US seizures, Jan 2026), retaliation not an MFA statement naming Smyrtos", "idOrSlug": "will-russia-retaliate-to-the-uss-ca-ORPq0dqtgd", "closeTime": "2026-01-09", "volumeOrForecasters": "7 bettors" }, { "venue": "all venues", "title": "no adjacent market found", "whyFails": "Polymarket public-search, Kalshi v1 search, Manifold search-markets for [smyrtos] returned no market on this subject in any period; Metaculus unreachable (403 auth wall), Adjacent News unreachable (DNS)" } ], "verdict": "no-candidate" } ] }