Will Davide Ancelotti be officially replaced or step down as the head coach of LOSC Lille on or before June 25, 2026?

LOSC Lille or Davide Ancelotti officially announces his departure, resignation, or termination as the head coach of the club, or another individual is officially appointed as the new head coach of the club.

Davide Ancelotti remains the officially designated head coach of LOSC Lille, with no official announcement of his departure, resignation, termination, or replacement.

https://www.losc.fr/ actual club news page. A YES is determined if there is an official club statement announcing that Davide Ancelotti has left his post, has been terminated, or that a new head coach has been hired to replace him. A NO is determined if no such announcement is made.

https://www.lequipe.fr/ Football section. A YES is determined if L'Équipe reports that Davide Ancelotti is no longer the head coach of Lille or has been replaced. A NO is determined if he remains in his role.

LOSC Lille ceases to exist as a professional football club

The entire French Ligue 1 is permanently suspended or dissolved

Will Olivier Létang be replaced or step down as the President of LOSC Lille on or before June 25, 2026?

LOSC Lille officially announces that Olivier Létang is no longer the President of the club, or that a new President has been appointed to replace him.

Olivier Létang remains the active President of LOSC Lille, with no official announcement of his departure, resignation, or replacement.

https://www.losc.fr/ actual club news page. A YES is determined if there is an official club statement announcing that Olivier Létang has left his post as President or that a new President has been appointed. A NO is determined if no such announcement is made.

https://www.lequipe.fr/ Football section. A YES is determined if L'Équipe reports that Olivier Létang is no longer the President of Lille. A NO is determined if he remains in his role.

The club is sold and the role of President is structurally eliminated entirely from the organization


Will Toy Story 5 have a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of 85.0% or higher on June 24, 2026?

The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is 85.0% or higher (i.e., >= 85%) as of 4:00 PM UTC on June 24, 2026.

The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is strictly less than 85.0% (i.e., < 85%) as of 4:00 PM UTC on June 24, 2026, or the film does not have a Tomatometer score listed.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/toy_story_5 - Read the Tomatometer percentage score displayed on this page at the specified time.

https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/toy_story_5 - Retrieve the archived version of the Rotten Tomatoes page closest to 4:00 PM UTC on June 24, 2026, and read the Tomatometer percentage score.

The film Toy Story 5 is not listed on Rotten Tomatoes by the deadline.

Rotten Tomatoes does not display a Tomatometer score (e.g., due to insufficient reviews) by the deadline.

Will Toy Story 5 be the number one film at the domestic weekend box office for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026, according to Box Office Mojo?

Any film other than Toy Story 5 is listed as the #1 film by weekend gross in the domestic box office chart for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/by-year/2026/ - Locate the row for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026 (usually Week 25) and verify if 'Toy Story 5' is listed as the #1 movie.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2026/06/19 - Verify if 'Toy Story 5' is listed as the #1 movie on the domestic weekend chart starting June 19, 2026.

No domestic weekend box office data is published for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026 by either source by the deadline.


Will Christie's or Sotheby's announce the consignment or upcoming auction of any original painting by David Hockney with an estimated value of $10 million USD or more between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The official website or press room of Christie's (christies.com) or Sotheby's (sothebys.com) publishes a press release or official auction listing announcing the consignment or upcoming sale of an original painting by David Hockney with a low-estimate or high-estimate value of $10,000,000 USD or more.

No such announcement or official listing is published by Christie's or Sotheby's within the specified timeframe.

https://www.artnews.com/category/market/ (Read the published articles to verify if any report confirms an official announcement by Christie's or Sotheby's of a David Hockney painting valued at $10 million USD or more being consigned or scheduled for auction).

The websites of both Christie's and Sotheby's are completely inaccessible due to persistent technical outages during the entire period from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.

Will Tate Britain announce a new dedicated memorial exhibition or retrospective for David Hockney to be held in 2026 or 2027, with the announcement occurring between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The official Tate website (tate.org.uk) publishes a press release or exhibition announcement explicitly stating that a new exhibition or retrospective dedicated to David Hockney will be held at Tate Britain in 2026 or 2027.

No such official announcement of a new dedicated David Hockney exhibition at Tate Britain is published within the specified timeframe.

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign (Read the art news section to verify if Tate Britain has officially announced a new David Hockney memorial exhibition or retrospective).

The Tate press release website is permanently down or inaccessible from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.


Will Christie's or Sotheby's announce the consignment or upcoming auction of any painting by David Hockney with an estimated value of $10 million USD or more between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

Either Christie's or Sotheby's officially announces via a press release or public auction catalog on their website that they have been consigned or will auction a painting by David Hockney with a low-estimate or high-estimate value of $10 million USD (or equivalent in GBP/EUR) or more.

No such announcement is made by Christie's or Sotheby's during the specified period.

https://www.christies.com/presscenter and https://www.sothebys.com/en/press - Check the official press release portals of Christie's and Sotheby's for any announcements regarding David Hockney consignments or upcoming sales with estimates of $10 million USD or more published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.

https://www.artnews.com - Search for articles reporting on major upcoming art auctions or consignments of David Hockney works valued at $10 million USD or more announced during the specified period.

The websites of both Christie's and Sotheby's press centers are completely inaccessible for more than 48 consecutive hours during the period.

Will the Tate Britain or Tate Modern announce a major retrospective or memorial exhibition dedicated to David Hockney to open in 2026 or 2027, with the announcement occurring between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The Tate (tate.org.uk) publishes an official press release or updates its exhibition calendar announcing a new retrospective or memorial exhibition dedicated to David Hockney scheduled to open in 2026 or 2027.

No such official announcement or exhibition calendar update is published by the Tate during the specified period.

https://www.tate.org.uk/press/press-releases - Check the official Tate press releases page for any announcements regarding a David Hockney retrospective or memorial exhibition scheduled for 2026 or 2027, published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.

https://www.theartnewspaper.com - Search for news articles reporting on Tate's exhibition announcements or memorial plans for David Hockney published during the specified period.

The Tate's official press website is permanently down or inaccessible during the entire period from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.


Will Lockheed Martin and Germany sign a contract for additional F-35 fighter jets, beyond the 35 aircraft ordered in 2022, between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The German government (or Ministry of Defence) and Lockheed Martin officially sign a contract or agreement to purchase additional F-35 fighter jets beyond the initial 35 ordered in December 2022.

No such contract or agreement for additional F-35 fighter jets is signed during the specified period.

https://www.bmvg.de/de/aktuelles
Read the official press releases of the German Federal Ministry of Defence; a YES is recorded if a contract signing for additional F-35s is announced, otherwise NO.

https://news.lockheedmartin.com
Read the official Lockheed Martin newsroom; a YES is recorded if a contract signing for additional German F-35s is announced, otherwise NO.

The German Ministry of Defence or Lockheed Martin's official press channels are completely inaccessible and no reputable international defense news outlet (e.g., Reuters, Defense News, Janes) reports on the matter.

Will Poland's Ministry of National Defence officially announce the arrival of a fourth Polish F-35 "Husarz" fighter jet physically landing on Polish soil between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The Polish Ministry of National Defence (MON) or the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces officially announces that a fourth F-35 "Husarz" has physically arrived and landed in Poland (e.g., at the 32nd Tactical Air Base in Łask).

No official announcement of a fourth Polish F-35 physically arriving in Poland is made during the specified period.

https://www.gov.pl/web/obrona-narodowa/wiadomosci
Read the official news feed of the Polish Ministry of National Defence; a YES is recorded if they announce the physical arrival/landing of a fourth F-35 in Poland, otherwise NO.

https://www.wojsko-polskie.pl/sztab-generalny/aktualnosci/
Read the official news feed of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces; a YES is recorded if they announce the physical arrival/landing of a fourth F-35 in Poland, otherwise NO.

The official Polish military websites are completely down and no major Polish news agency (e.g., PAP) reports on the arrival of the aircraft.


Will Lockheed Martin and Germany sign an agreement or contract for additional F-35 fighter jets beyond the 35 aircraft ordered in 2022, between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

A formal contract, agreement, or memorandum of understanding is signed between Lockheed Martin (or the US government on its behalf) and the German government/Bundeswehr for the purchase of additional F-35 fighter jets (beyond the original 35 ordered in 2022).

No such contract, agreement, or memorandum of understanding for additional F-35 fighter jets is signed during the specified timeframe.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news.html
Read the official press releases published by Lockheed Martin between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to determine if a contract or agreement for additional German F-35s has been signed.

https://www.bmvg.de/de/presse
Read the official press releases of the German Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVg) to verify if any new procurement contract for F-35s was signed.

The German government cancels or voids the original 2022 order of 35 F-35 jets entirely before July 10, 2026.

Will the German Luftwaffe officially present or roll out its first completed F-35 fighter jet to the public or media between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The German Luftwaffe, the German Ministry of Defence, or Lockheed Martin officially presents, rolls out, or unveils the first completed German F-35 fighter jet (often referred to as a rollout ceremony) to the public or media.

No official rollout or public presentation ceremony of the first German F-35 fighter jet occurs during the specified timeframe.

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe/aktuelles
Read the official news and press releases of the German Luftwaffe to see if the rollout ceremony of the first German F-35 has taken place.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news.html
Read Lockheed Martin's official press releases to check for announcements of the first German F-35 rollout ceremony.

Lockheed Martin files for bankruptcy or halts all F-35 production globally before July 10, 2026.


Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Marc Cucurella from Chelsea on or before July 10, 2026?

Real Madrid officially announces on its website or verified social media channels that they have signed Marc Cucurella (or reached a definitive agreement for his transfer) from Chelsea.

No official announcement of Marc Cucurella's signing is made by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.

https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news
Read the official news feed of Real Madrid. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the signing or transfer agreement of Marc Cucurella, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news
Read the official news feed of Chelsea FC. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the transfer of Marc Cucurella to Real Madrid, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

The player Marc Cucurella retires from professional football before July 10, 2026.

Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Bernardo Silva on or before July 10, 2026?

Real Madrid officially announces on its website or verified social media channels that they have signed Bernardo Silva (or reached a definitive agreement for his transfer/signing).

No official announcement of Bernardo Silva's signing is made by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.

https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news
Read the official news feed of Real Madrid. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the signing or transfer agreement of Bernardo Silva, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

https://www.mancity.com/news
Read the official news feed of Manchester City. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the departure of Bernardo Silva to Real Madrid, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

The player Bernardo Silva retires from professional football before July 10, 2026.


Will Germany win its opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao?

The German men's national football team wins its opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao (scheduled for June 14, 2026) in regular time, extra time, or via penalty shootout.

The match ends in a draw, Curacao wins, or the match is not completed or officially recorded as a German victory by the deadline.

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026
Retrieve the official match results for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If Germany is recorded as having won the match against Curacao scheduled for June 14, 2026, the resolution is YES. If the match is recorded as a draw, a loss for Germany, or is postponed beyond the deadline, the resolution is NO.

https://www.kicker.de/
Navigate to the World Cup 2026 section and check the match center for Germany vs. Curacao on June 14, 2026. If Germany is shown as the winner, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.

The match between Germany and Curacao scheduled for June 14, 2026, is cancelled, abandoned, or postponed to a date after June 15, 2026.

Will Manuel Neuer start as the goalkeeper for Germany in their first match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Manuel Neuer is named in the starting lineup (starting XI) as the goalkeeper for Germany in their opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao.

Manuel Neuer is not named in the starting lineup (e.g., Oliver Baumann or another goalkeeper starts, or Neuer is on the bench/not in the squad) for Germany's opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao.

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026
Retrieve the official starting lineups for the Germany vs. Curacao match scheduled for June 14, 2026. If Manuel Neuer is listed in the starting XI, resolve YES. If he is listed as a substitute, not in the squad, or another player starts in goal, resolve NO.

https://www.dfb.de/die-mannschaft/start/
Check the official lineup announcement or match report for the Germany vs. Curacao match on June 14, 2026. If Manuel Neuer is in the starting XI, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.

Germany's opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao is postponed beyond June 15, 2026.


Will Canada's men's national soccer team qualify for the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Canada's men's national soccer team officially advances to the Round of 16 (the first knockout round) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Canada's men's national soccer team is mathematically eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup during the group stage and does not advance to the Round of 16.

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026
Read the official tournament standings, bracket, or match schedules to verify if Canada is listed as one of the teams advancing to the Round of 16.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/table/_/league/fifa.world
Read the Group B standings and tournament bracket to confirm whether Canada finishes in a qualifying position and advances to the Round of 16.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, suspended, or postponed such that the Group B matches or the start of the Round of 16 do not take place before the deadline.

Will Sassuolo or Ismaël Koné's representative officially announce his transfer to another club by July 10, 2026?

Sassuolo, Ismaël Koné, or his acquiring club officially announces that a permanent transfer agreement has been reached for Koné to join a new club.

No official announcement of a permanent transfer is made by Sassuolo, Koné, or an acquiring club by the deadline.

https://www.sassuolocalcio.it/en/
Read the official news and press releases section of U.S. Sassuolo Calcio to see if a permanent transfer for Ismaël Koné is officially announced.

https://www.legaseriea.it/en
Read the official Serie A transfer registration page or official news to confirm if Ismaël Koné's permanent transfer from Sassuolo has been registered or announced.

Ismaël Koné is deceased before the deadline.

Sassuolo Calcio ceases to exist as a professional football club before the deadline.


Will Switzerland win their second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

The Switzerland men's national football team wins their second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (scheduled against Bosnia and Herzegovina or Canada, following their June 13 opener against Qatar).

The Switzerland men's national football team draws or loses their second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, or the match is not completed by the deadline.

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026
Read the official match center results for Switzerland's second group stage match of the 2026 World Cup. If Switzerland wins, YES. If they draw or lose, NO.

https://www.srf.ch/sport
Read the match report for Switzerland's second group stage game of the 2026 World Cup. If Switzerland wins, YES. If they draw or lose, NO.

Switzerland's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is postponed beyond July 10, 2026, or is abandoned/canceled without an official result determined by FIFA.

Will Qatar qualify for the Round of 32 (knockout stage) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Qatar finishes in a position in Group B (either top two, or as one of the best third-placed teams if applicable under the 48-team format) that officially advances them to the Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Qatar is officially eliminated in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and does not advance to the Round of 32.

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026
Read the official tournament standings and bracket. If Qatar is listed as advancing to the Round of 32 from Group B, YES. If they are eliminated in the group stage, NO.

https://www.aljazeera.com/sports
Read the sports coverage of the 2026 World Cup group stage conclusion. If Qatar qualifies for the knockout stage, YES. If they are eliminated, NO.

Group B matches are not fully completed by the deadline, or Qatar is disqualified from the tournament for non-sporting reasons before the group stage concludes.


Will the Audiencia Provincial of Madrid or another Spanish appeals court officially suspend or overturn the withdrawal of Begoña Gómez's passport before July 10, 2026?

An official ruling or order by the Audiencia Provincial of Madrid (or a higher Spanish court) is published or announced, which explicitly suspends, revokes, or overturns the precautionary measure (medida cautelar) of withdrawing Begoña Gómez's passport.

No such ruling or order suspending or overturning the passport withdrawal is issued, or the measure remains fully in effect as of the deadline.

https://www.poderjudicial.es/cgpj/es/Poder-Judicial/Noticias-Judiciales/
Retrieval rule: Read the official press releases and judicial news section of the Spanish General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) to verify if any appellate court has suspended or overturned the passport withdrawal for Begoña Gómez.

https://elpais.com/
Retrieval rule: Search the main national news section of EL PAÍS for reports on judicial decisions regarding Begoña Gómez's appeal against her precautionary measures.

The entire criminal case against Begoña Gómez is dismissed or archived in its entirety before the deadline, which would render the specific appeal on the passport moot.

Will Pedro Sánchez resign or announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before July 10, 2026?

Pedro Sánchez makes a public, official announcement stating that he is resigning or has submitted his resignation as Prime Minister (Presidente del Gobierno) of Spain.

Pedro Sánchez remains in office and does not announce his resignation before the deadline.

https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/
Retrieval rule: Check the official press releases and statements from the Presidency of the Government of Spain to see if a resignation announcement has been issued.

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/
Retrieval rule: Check the national news section of RTVE to confirm if Pedro Sánchez has announced his resignation.

Pedro Sánchez becomes physically incapacitated or dies before any resignation announcement is made.


Will Serena Williams and Victoria Mboko win their first-round doubles match at the 2026 Queen's Club tournament?

Serena Williams and Victoria Mboko are officially recorded as winning their first-round match (the very first match they play as a pair) in the women's doubles draw at the 2026 Queen's Club tournament.

Serena Williams and Victoria Mboko lose their first-round match, withdraw/retire before or during the match resulting in a walkover/loss, or do not play together in the tournament's main doubles draw.

https://www.wtatennis.com/tournament/1038/london-queens-club/draws (Read the official WTA draws and match results for the 2026 London/Queen's Club tournament. If Williams/Mboko win their first-round match, it resolves YES. If they lose, withdraw, or do not play, it resolves NO.)

https://www.flashscore.com/tennis/wta-doubles/london/ (Search for Serena Williams / Victoria Mboko in the 2026 London WTA doubles results. If they are recorded as winning their first-round match, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.)

The 2026 Queen's Club women's doubles tournament is entirely cancelled or postponed beyond July 1, 2026.

Will Serena Williams be officially awarded a singles main draw wildcard for the 2026 Wimbledon Championships by June 24, 2026?

The All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) officially announces or lists Serena Williams as a recipient of a wildcard entry into the women's singles main draw for the 2026 Wimbledon Championships.

The official wildcard announcements are completed and Serena Williams is not awarded a singles main draw wildcard, or no such announcement is made by the deadline.

https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/news/articles/wild_cards.html (Read the official Wimbledon wild cards announcement page. If Serena Williams is listed under 'Wild Cards - Ladies' Singles' for the 2026 tournament, resolve YES. If she is not listed, or only listed for doubles, resolve NO.)

https://www.wtatennis.com/ (Search for official WTA news releases regarding Wimbledon 2026 wildcards. If they confirm Serena Williams received a singles main draw wildcard, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.)

The 2026 Wimbledon tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 1, 2026.


Will the Governor of Irkutsk Oblast, Igor Kobzev, be officially replaced or dismissed from his post as governor between June 22, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The Kremlin, the official portal of the Irkutsk Oblast government, or major state news agencies (TASS/RIA Novosti) announce that Igor Kobzev has resigned, been dismissed, or replaced by an acting governor, and this change takes official effect within the specified period.

Igor Kobzev remains the active Governor of Irkutsk Oblast throughout the entire period from June 22, 2026, to July 10, 2026.

https://irkobl.ru/ (Official portal of the Irkutsk Oblast Government. Check the news section and the 'Governor' profile page to see if Igor Kobzev is replaced or if an acting governor is appointed.)

https://tass.ru/ (TASS Russian News Agency. Search for 'Игорь Кобзев' or 'Иркутская область' to verify any official decrees regarding his dismissal or replacement.)

The government of Irkutsk Oblast is entirely dissolved due to federal administrative restructuring or war-related emergency measures.

Will the Russian Ministry of Defense or a state-run news agency (TASS, RIA Novosti, or Interfax) officially attribute the June 15, 2026, Tu-22M3 crash in Irkutsk to a 'technical malfunction' (техническая неисправность) in an official statement published between June 22, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

An official statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, or a report by TASS, RIA Novosti, or Interfax citing defense/investigative officials, explicitly states that the preliminary or final cause of the June 15, 2026, Tu-22M3 crash in Irkutsk was a 'technical malfunction' (техническая неисправность) or 'technical failure'.

No such official statement or report is published within the specified timeframe, or the cause is officially attributed to pilot error, weather, sabotage, or remains officially 'under investigation' without a declared cause.

https://tass.ru/ (TASS Russian News Agency. Search for 'Ту-22М3' and 'Иркутск' to find reports on the official investigation results of the June 15 crash.)

https://interfax.ru/ (Interfax News Agency. Search for 'Ту-22М3' and 'Иркутск' to find reports on the official investigation results of the June 15 crash.)

It is discovered that the crash did not actually occur on June 15, 2026.


Will the Congress of Deputies of Spain approve a motion or amendment that formally urges or demands that President Pedro Sánchez dissolve the Cortes Generales and call general elections, during the plenary sessions scheduled for the week of June 15, 2026?

The Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) of Spain votes on and approves (by simple or absolute majority) a motion, or an amendment to a motion (such as the PP motion regarding the government's weakness), that explicitly calls on, demands, or urges the President of the Government to dissolve the Cortes Generales and/or call general elections.

The Congress of Deputies votes on such a motion or amendment and rejects it, or no such vote takes place during the specified period, or the motion is withdrawn without a vote.

https://www.congreso.es/
Read the official voting records, daily journal of sessions (Diario de Sesiones), or official press releases of the Congress of Deputies for the plenary sessions held between June 16, 2026, and June 20, 2026. If a motion or amendment urging the dissolution of the Cortes/calling of elections is recorded as approved (Aprobado), the resolution is YES. If it is rejected (Rechazado) or not voted on, the resolution is NO.

https://elpais.com/
Search the national politics section of El País for coverage of the parliamentary votes in the Congress of Deputies on June 18, 2026 (or surrounding days of that week). If El País reports that the Congress approved the initiative/amendment demanding or urging Pedro Sánchez to call elections, the resolution is YES.

The plenary sessions of the Congress of Deputies for the week of June 15, 2026, are entirely suspended or canceled due to force majeure.

Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez officially announce the dissolution of the Cortes Generales and the calling of early general elections on or before July 10, 2026?

Pedro Sánchez, in his capacity as President of the Government of Spain, makes an official public announcement or decree proposing the dissolution of the Cortes Generales and calling for early general elections, with the announcement occurring between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026, at 23:59:00 UTC.

No such official announcement or decree is made by Pedro Sánchez on or before July 10, 2026, at 23:59:00 UTC.

https://www.boe.es/
Check the Official State Gazette (Boletín Oficial del Estado - BOE) for a Royal Decree (Real Decreto) signed by the King and countersigned by the President of the Government dissolving the Cortes Generales and calling elections, published on or before July 11, 2026 (reflecting a decision made on or before July 10, 2026). If such a decree is published, the resolution is YES.

https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/
Check the official press releases and statements from the Presidency of the Government (La Moncloa). If an official statement confirms that Pedro Sánchez has announced the dissolution of parliament and the calling of elections on or before July 10, 2026, the resolution is YES.

Pedro Sánchez ceases to be the President of the Government of Spain (e.g., due to resignation, a successful motion of no confidence, or death) before any such announcement is made.


Will Florentino Pérez win the Real Madrid presidential election scheduled for June 7, 2026?

Florentino Pérez is officially declared the winner of the Real Madrid presidential election held on June 7, 2026.

Enrique Riquelme is officially declared the winner of the Real Madrid presidential election held on June 7, 2026, or the election is officially declared void, postponed past July 3, 2026, or cancelled.

https://www.realmadrid.com/ (Read the official announcements section to verify the certified winner of the presidential election held on June 7, 2026. A YES outcome requires an official statement confirming Florentino Pérez as the elected president.)

https://elpais.com/ (Search for coverage of the Real Madrid presidential election results. A YES outcome requires reports confirming Florentino Pérez won the election.)

The election is postponed to a date after July 3, 2026.

No official or highly credible media confirmation of the election results is available by July 3, 2026.

Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of José Mourinho as their first-team head coach by June 15, 2026?

Real Madrid Club de Fútbol publishes an official statement on its website or verified social media channels announcing that José Mourinho has been hired or signed as the club's first-team head coach.

Real Madrid Club de Fútbol does not publish an official statement announcing the signing of José Mourinho as head coach by the deadline.

https://www.realmadrid.com/ (Read the official communications/news section. A YES outcome requires an official club statement confirming the hiring of José Mourinho as head coach.)

https://www.marca.com/ (Search for reports on Real Madrid's official coaching announcements. A YES outcome requires reports citing an official club announcement that Mourinho has signed.)

The Real Madrid presidential election scheduled for June 7, 2026, is officially postponed beyond June 15, 2026.


Will former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's legal team file an official appeal against his 30-year prison sentence in the drone case by July 10, 2026?

An official appeal is filed by Yoon Suk Yeol's legal defense team with the Seoul Central District Court or the relevant appellate court in South Korea against the June 12, 2026, verdict and 30-year sentence, as reported by South Korean judicial authorities or major news agencies.

No official appeal is filed by Yoon Suk Yeol's legal defense team against the June 12, 2026, verdict and 30-year sentence by the deadline, or his legal team explicitly announces they will not appeal this specific ruling.

https://en.yna.co.kr/ (Yonhap News Agency: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol' and 'appeal' or 'drone' to verify if an appeal has been formally lodged with the court.)

https://www.reuters.com/ (Reuters: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol' and 'appeal' to confirm whether South Korean court filings show an appeal has been submitted.)

Yoon Suk Yeol dies before an appeal is filed or before the deadline.

The June 12, 2026, verdict is vacated or annulled by an extraordinary executive action or constitutional court ruling before an appeal can be filed.

Will the Seoul High Court or another South Korean appellate court issue a ruling on Yoon Suk Yeol's appeal of his February 2026 life sentence for rebellion between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

A South Korean appellate court (such as the Seoul High Court) officially issues a verdict/ruling that upholds, overturns, or modifies the February 2026 life imprisonment sentence given to Yoon Suk Yeol for rebellion/insurrection.

No appellate court ruling on the February 2026 rebellion conviction is issued during the specified timeframe.

https://en.yna.co.kr/ (Yonhap News Agency: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol', 'rebellion', 'appeal', or 'Seoul High Court' to check for any appellate ruling on his life sentence.)

https://www.apnews.com/ (AP News: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol' and 'rebellion' to verify if an appellate court decision has been handed down.)

Yoon Suk Yeol dies before the appellate court issues its ruling.

The appeal is formally withdrawn by both the defense and prosecution before any ruling is issued.


Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the UK Government officially summon the Russian Ambassador to the UK for a formal diplomatic protest regarding the June 16, 2026 English Channel yacht incident before July 10, 2026?

The UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) or the UK Ministry of Defence officially announces that the Russian Ambassador to the UK (or the Russian Chargé d'Affaires) has been formally summoned to the Foreign Office specifically to receive a diplomatic protest or demand for explanation regarding the June 16, 2026 incident involving the Admiral Grigorovich and the British-registered yacht.

No such official announcement of a formal summons of the Russian Ambassador or Chargé d'Affaires regarding this specific incident is made by the UK government, or the UK government explicitly states they will not summon the ambassador over this incident.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-development-office
Read the official news, press releases, and statements section. A YES is resolved if a press release or official statement published between June 23, 2026, and July 10, 2026, confirms that the Russian Ambassador (or Chargé d'Affaires) was summoned to the FCDO over the June 16, 2026 English Channel yacht incident. Otherwise, NO.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk
Read the UK news section. If the primary source is unavailable or lacks the information, a YES is resolved if the BBC reports that the UK Foreign Office has formally summoned the Russian Ambassador to protest the June 16, 2026 yacht shooting incident. Otherwise, NO.

The UK government or Russian government officially states before the deadline that the entire incident of June 16, 2026 (the alleged warning shots from the Admiral Grigorovich) was a fabrication and never took place.

Will the captain of the seized tanker MV Smyrtos, Ajay Pant, be granted bail by an English court before July 10, 2026?

An English court officially grants bail to Ajay Pant, allowing his release from custody pending trial under any conditions.

Ajay Pant remains in custody, or his bail application is formally denied, or no court decision granting him bail is announced.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk
Search for news articles regarding 'Ajay Pant' or 'Smyrtos'. A YES is resolved if a published article confirms that Ajay Pant was granted bail by an English court. Otherwise, NO.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news
Search for news articles regarding 'Ajay Pant' or 'Smyrtos'. A YES is resolved if a published article confirms that Ajay Pant was granted bail by an English court. Otherwise, NO.

All charges against Ajay Pant are dropped or the case is dismissed before the deadline without a bail determination.


Will the United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement to formally end the war or permanently extend the ceasefire by July 5, 2026?

The United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement, treaty, or joint accord that formally ends the state of war or establishes a permanent/indefinite extension of the ceasefire, signed by authorized representatives of both nations.

No such bilateral agreement is signed by both nations within the specified timeframe.

https://www.state.gov/newsroom/
Read the official press releases and statements from the US Department of State. A YES is decided if an official release confirms the signing of a bilateral peace agreement or permanent ceasefire extension with Iran between June 12, 2026, and July 5, 2026. Otherwise, NO.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/
Read the Reuters Middle East news coverage. A YES is decided if Reuters reports that a bilateral peace agreement or permanent ceasefire extension has been signed by the US and Iran within the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.

The United States or Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign state before the deadline.

Will Kuwait International Airport suspend all commercial passenger flights for a continuous period of 24 hours or more due to military action or drone/missile strikes between June 12, 2026, and July 5, 2026?

Kuwait International Airport (KWI) suspends all commercial passenger flight operations (both arrivals and departures) for a continuous period of at least 24 hours, with official statements or credible news reports attributing the suspension to military action, drone strikes, or missile attacks.

Kuwait International Airport does not suspend all commercial passenger flights for a continuous period of 24 hours or more due to military action or strikes during the specified timeframe.

https://www.dgca.gov.kw/
Read the official announcements and press releases from the Kuwait Directorate General of Civil Aviation. A YES is decided if they announce a suspension of all commercial flights lasting 24 continuous hours or more due to military/strike activity. Otherwise, NO.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/
Read Reuters Middle East news. A YES is decided if Reuters reports a complete shutdown of Kuwait International Airport's commercial flights for 24 continuous hours or more due to military/strike activity. Otherwise, NO.

Kuwait International Airport is closed entirely for pre-planned scheduled maintenance or non-military reasons (such as weather) during the entire period.


Will Spain's Social Security affiliation (afiliación media a la Seguridad Social) exceed 22.45 million in the official June 2026 data?

The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration (Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones) for June 2026 shows that the average number of affiliates (afiliación media) to the Social Security system is strictly greater than 22,450,000.

The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration for June 2026 shows that the average number of affiliates (afiliación media) to the Social Security system is 22,450,000 or fewer.

https://www.inclusion.gob.es/web/seguridad-social/estadisticas (Read the official press release or statistical report for June 2026, typically published in early July, to find the 'afiliación media' figure).

https://www.epdata.es/datos/paro-afiliacion-seguridad-social-datos-graficos-estadisticas/288 (Read the updated chart and text for June 2026 average affiliation).

The Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration does not publish the official June 2026 employment and affiliation data by July 2, 2026.

Will the registered unemployment (paro registrado) in Spain fall below 2.28 million in the official June 2026 data?

The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy (Ministerio de Trabajo y Economía Social) for June 2026 shows that the total registered unemployment (paro registrado) is strictly less than 2,280,000 people.

The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy for June 2026 shows that the total registered unemployment (paro registrado) is 2,280,000 people or more.

https://www.mites.gob.es/es/estadisticas/index.htm (Read the official press release or statistical report for June 2026, typically published in early July, to find the 'paro registrado' figure).

https://www.epdata.es/datos/paro-afiliacion-seguridad-social-datos-graficos-estadisticas/288 (Read the updated chart and text for June 2026 registered unemployment).

The Ministry of Labor and Social Economy does not publish the official June 2026 registered unemployment data by July 2, 2026.


Will Miguel Almirón play in Paraguay's final World Cup Group D match against Australia on June 26, 2026?

The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows Miguel Almirón entering the pitch as a starter or substitute during the match against Australia on June 26, 2026.

The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows Miguel Almirón did not play in the match (e.g., due to serving a suspension for his red card, being an unused substitute, or not being in the squad).

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026 - Retrieve the official match report, squad list, or live text commentary for the Paraguay vs. Australia Group D match played on June 26, 2026, to verify if Miguel Almirón played.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/fixtures - Search for the Paraguay vs. Australia match on June 26, 2026, and check the lineups/player statistics to see if Miguel Almirón played.

The match between Paraguay and Australia scheduled for June 26, 2026, is postponed, cancelled, or abandoned before completion.

Will another player be shown a straight red card for covering their mouth during any FIFA World Cup match played between June 21, 2026, and June 28, 2026?

An official FIFA match report or disciplinary record for any World Cup match played between June 21, 2026, and June 28, 2026 (inclusive, UTC) confirms that a player was shown a straight red card specifically for covering their mouth/violating the mouth-covering rule.

No player is shown a straight red card for covering their mouth during any World Cup match played between June 21, 2026, and June 28, 2026 (inclusive, UTC).

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026 - Review match reports, disciplinary summaries, or official news releases for all tournament matches played from June 21 to June 28, 2026.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/ - Search tournament news and match summaries for any reports of a player receiving a red card for covering their mouth during the specified dates.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is suspended or cancelled during this period.


Will the United States and Iran sign a formal peace agreement or capitulation treaty to end their conflict by July 10, 2026?

The United States and Iran sign a formal, bilateral or multilateral peace agreement, treaty, or capitulation document officially ending their military conflict, as announced by the White House, the US Department of State, or the Iranian government.

No such formal peace agreement or treaty is signed by both parties by the deadline, or the scheduled signing is postponed beyond the deadline.

https://www.state.gov/press-releases/ (Read the official press releases from the US Department of State. A YES is resolved if a press release confirms the formal signing of a peace treaty or agreement ending the conflict with Iran between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026. Otherwise, NO.)

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/ (Read the official statements and releases from the White House Briefing Room. A YES is resolved if an official statement confirms the formal signing of the peace agreement with Iran within the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.)

The conflict is resolved by a UN resolution without direct signature or formal bilateral/multilateral agreement signed by both the US and Iran.

Will Kevin Warsh deliver a public speech or hold a press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

Kevin Warsh, in his official capacity as Chair of the Federal Reserve, delivers a public speech, participates in a public Q&A session, or hosts an official press conference.

Kevin Warsh does not deliver any public speech, participate in a public Q&A, or host a press conference during this period.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm (Read the Federal Reserve's official calendar of events and speeches. A YES is resolved if the calendar lists a public speech, testimony, or press conference delivered by Chair Kevin Warsh between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026, and the event is confirmed to have occurred. Otherwise, NO.)

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm (Read the Federal Reserve's press releases. A YES is resolved if a press release or transcript confirms a public speech or press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh during the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.)

Kevin Warsh resigns or is removed from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to July 10, 2026.


Will Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn officially name a successor to the throne between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The Bureau of the Royal Household or the Royal Gazette of Thailand officially announces that King Maha Vajiralongkorn has designated or appointed a specific individual as the heir apparent or successor to the throne.

No official announcement designating or appointing a successor to the throne is made by the Bureau of the Royal Household or the Royal Gazette of Thailand during the specified period.

https://www.royaloffice.th/ (Read the official announcements and press releases from the Bureau of the Royal Household to see if an heir apparent or successor is officially named.)

https://www.reuters.com/ (Search for reports from Reuters confirming whether the Thai King has officially designated a successor during the specified timeframe.)

The King of Thailand dies or abdicates before a successor is named, rendering the question moot.

Will the Thai government declare a period of official national mourning of at least 30 days in response to the death of Princess Bajrakitiyabha by July 10, 2026?

An official decree or announcement from the Royal Thai Government (such as the Prime Minister's Office) is published declaring a national mourning period of 30 days or more for Princess Bajrakitiyabha.

The official national mourning period declared by the government is less than 30 days, or no official mourning period of 30 days or more is declared by the deadline.

https://www.thaigov.go.th/ (Read the official cabinet resolutions and announcements from the Royal Thai Government regarding the mourning period for the Princess.)

https://www.bangkokpost.com/ (Search for news reports detailing the official duration of the national mourning period declared by the Thai government.)

No official mourning period of any duration is announced or discussed by the government, or the government is dissolved before making an announcement.


Will the price of Brent crude oil settle at or above $90.00 per barrel on any trading day between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026?

The daily settle price of the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at or above $90.00 per barrel on any trading day within the specified window.

The daily settle price of the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract remains strictly below $90.00 per barrel on all trading days within the specified window.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/LCO.1 - Read the historical daily settle prices for Brent Crude futures (LCO.1 or equivalent front-month contract) for the period from June 8, 2026, to June 22, 2026. If any day's settle price is $90.00 or higher, resolve YES.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm - Read the daily spot prices for Europe Brent. If any daily price between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026, is $90.00 or higher, resolve YES.

The exchange hosting the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract suspends trading for the entire duration of the specified period.

Will the United States and Iran officially announce a resumption of direct or mediated peace negotiations between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026?

An official statement from either the US Department of State, the White House, or the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms that the two nations have resumed active negotiations or exchanges of texts via mediators.

No official statement confirming the resumption of negotiations or exchanges of texts via mediators is issued by the specified authorities during the window.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ - Read the published news articles concerning US-Iran relations between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026. If a report confirms an official announcement of resumed talks or text exchanges via mediators, resolve YES.

https://www.state.gov/press-releases/ - Read the official press releases from the US Department of State issued between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026. If a release confirms the resumption of talks or mediated exchanges with Iran, resolve YES.

There is a total breakdown of communications where the Swiss Embassy in Tehran (the US protecting power) ceases all operations.


Will Alexander Zverev be ranked in the top 2 of the ATP singles rankings published during the week of June 15, 2026?

The official ATP singles rankings published during the week of June 15, 2026 (specifically on June 15, 2026) list Alexander Zverev as rank 1 or rank 2.

The official ATP singles rankings published during the week of June 15, 2026 list Alexander Zverev as rank 3 or lower, or do not list him in the top 2.

https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles - Read the official ATP singles rankings table for the week of June 15, 2026, and check if Alexander Zverev is ranked #1 or #2.

https://www.wtatennis.com/ or major sports news outlets like ESPN (https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings) - Verify the official ATP singles rankings published on or about June 15, 2026.

The ATP does not publish any official singles rankings during the week of June 15, 2026.

Will Flavio Cobolli win an ATP Tour-level singles title between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026?

Flavio Cobolli officially wins at least one ATP Tour-level singles tournament (including ATP 250, 500, 1000, or Grand Slam events) that concludes between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.

Flavio Cobolli does not win any ATP Tour-level singles tournament concluding in the specified timeframe.

https://www.atptour.com/en/players/flavio-cobolli/c0f5/titles-and-finals - Read the 'Titles and Finals' or 'Activity' tab for Flavio Cobolli to see if he won a singles title in a tournament ending between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.

https://www.flashscore.com/player/cobolli-flavio/Y99v9970/ - Check the player's match history and tournament results for any singles titles won during the specified period.

No ATP Tour-level singles tournaments are held or completed during the specified timeframe.


Will Meta Platforms, Inc. issue an official press release or newsroom statement attributing the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity by July 10, 2026?

Meta Platforms, Inc. publishes an official statement, blog post, or press release on its official newsroom or corporate website between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly stating that the service outage on June 12, 2026, was caused by a cyberattack, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, or other external malicious actor activity.

Meta Platforms, Inc. does not publish any official statement attributing the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity by July 10, 2026, or explicitly attributes the outage to internal technical issues, configuration changes, or routine maintenance.

https://about.fb.com/news/ (Read the official Meta Newsroom articles and updates published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to determine if any statement attributes the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity.)

https://www.reuters.com/technology/ (Search for Reuters reports published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, citing official Meta spokespeople or statements regarding the cause of the June 12, 2026 outage.)

Meta Platforms, Inc. ceases to exist as a corporate entity before July 10, 2026.

Will the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issue an official advisory or alert mentioning the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026?

CISA publishes an official alert, advisory, or press release on its official website between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, that explicitly references the Meta (Facebook, Instagram, or Messenger) outage of June 12, 2026.

CISA does not publish any official alert, advisory, or press release referencing the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026.

https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories (Review all cybersecurity advisories, alerts, and news releases published by CISA between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to see if they explicitly mention the Meta outage of June 12, 2026.)

https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news (Review all general news releases and statements published by CISA between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, for any explicit mention of the Meta outage of June 12, 2026.)

The CISA official website is permanently offline or inaccessible during the entire resolution window.


Will Kaja Kallas issue a public statement retracting, clarifying, or denying the reported comparison of Israel to apartheid-era South Africa by July 10, 2026?

The European External Action Service (EEAS) or Kaja Kallas's official social media channels publish an official statement, press release, or transcript in which she explicitly denies making the comparison, retracts the comparison, or clarifies that she did not equate Israel to the apartheid regime.

No such official statement, press release, or transcript is published by Kaja Kallas or the EEAS, or any statement issued does not address, deny, retract, or clarify the specific comparison.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/high-representative-vice-president_en
Read the official press releases and statements section of the High Representative to see if a statement addressing the Mexico/apartheid controversy has been published.

https://x.com/kajakallas
Read the official X account of Kaja Kallas to see if she has posted a clarification, denial, or retraction regarding the controversy.

Kaja Kallas resigns or is removed from her position as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy before July 10, 2026.

Will Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas hold an official bilateral meeting or joint press conference between June 25, 2026, and July 10, 2026?

The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the European External Action Service officially announces or documents that Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas held an in-person or virtual bilateral meeting, or appeared together in an official joint press conference.

No official bilateral meeting or joint press conference between Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas is announced or documented as having occurred during the specified timeframe.

https://www.gov.il/en/departments/ministry_of_foreign_affairs/govil-landing-page
Read the official press releases and news updates of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs to verify if a bilateral meeting or joint press conference with Kaja Kallas took place.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/high-representative-vice-president_en
Read the official schedule, press releases, and news updates of the EU High Representative to verify if a bilateral meeting or joint press conference with Gideon Sa'ar took place.

Either Gideon Sa'ar or Kaja Kallas officially leaves their respective office before July 10, 2026.


Will Ibrahima Konaté play in France's second match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage?

The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows that Ibrahima Konaté entered the pitch (either as a starter or as a substitute) during France's second match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage.

The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows that Ibrahima Konaté did not play any minutes (remained an unused substitute or was not in the squad) during France's second match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage.

https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026
Check the official match center and match reports for France's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup; YES if Ibrahima Konaté is listed as having played minutes, NO if he did not play.

https://www.lequipe.fr/
Check the match report and player statistics for France's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup; YES if Konaté is recorded as having played, NO otherwise.

France's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is postponed beyond July 10, 2026

France is disqualified or withdraws before playing their second group stage match

Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Denzel Dumfries by July 5, 2026?

Real Madrid CF publishes an official statement on its official website (realmadrid.com) announcing the transfer or signing of Denzel Dumfries.

Real Madrid CF does not publish an official statement on its official website (realmadrid.com) announcing the transfer or signing of Denzel Dumfries.

https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news
Read the official news announcements on the Real Madrid website; YES if an official announcement of Denzel Dumfries's signing is published, NO otherwise.

https://www.marca.com/
Read the transfer news section; YES if they report that Real Madrid has officially announced the signing of Denzel Dumfries, NO otherwise.

The player Denzel Dumfries publicly announces his retirement from professional football before the deadline


Will Armand Duplantis win his next official pole vault competition held on or after June 14, 2026?

Armand Duplantis places first (including tied for first) in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.

Armand Duplantis competes in but does not place first in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.

https://worldathletics.org/athletes/sweden/armand-duplantis-14634942
Read the 'Results' tab for Armand Duplantis's profile to identify the first competition held on or after June 14, 2026, and verify if his final position is 1st.

https://www.diamondleague.com/
Read the official Diamond League meeting results or World Athletics news releases to determine the outcome of Duplantis's first competition in this timeframe.

Armand Duplantis does not participate in any official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.

Will Armand Duplantis set a new official men's pole vault world record of 6.32 meters or higher before July 7, 2026?

Armand Duplantis successfully clears a height of 6.32 meters or higher in an official World Athletics-sanctioned competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive, establishing a new world record.

Armand Duplantis does not establish a new official world record of 6.32 meters or higher in any competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.

https://worldathletics.org/records/by-discipline/jumps/pole-vault/outdoor/men
Read the official World Athletics men's pole vault world record page to see if the record has been updated to 6.32 m or higher with a performance date between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.

https://worldathletics.org/athletes/sweden/armand-duplantis-14634942
Read the 'Results' or 'Honours' tab on Duplantis's official profile to check if any performance between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, is marked as a World Record (WR) of 6.32 m or higher.


Will the European Union formally open the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine on Monday, June 15, 2026?

The European Union formally opens the first cluster of accession negotiations (the "Fundamentals" cluster) with Ukraine during an intergovernmental conference on June 15, 2026.

The scheduled intergovernmental conference on June 15, 2026, is postponed, canceled, or fails to formally open the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine by 23:59 UTC on June 15, 2026.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/
Read the official press releases published by the Council of the European Union on or immediately after June 15, 2026. If a press release confirms that the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine was formally opened at an intergovernmental conference on June 15, 2026, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en
Read the official press releases of the European Commission. If they confirm the formal opening of the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine on June 15, 2026, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

The intergovernmental conference is held but the status of the opening of the cluster is legally disputed or ambiguous without clear official confirmation from the EU Council by the deadline.

Will the European Union formally open any additional negotiation clusters (Clusters 2 through 6) for Ukraine's accession before July 10, 2026?

The European Union formally opens at least one additional negotiation cluster (specifically Cluster 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6) for Ukraine's accession process on or after June 16, 2026, and before 23:59 UTC on July 10, 2026.

The European Union does not formally open any additional negotiation clusters (Clusters 2 through 6) for Ukraine's accession process between June 16, 2026, and 23:59 UTC on July 10, 2026.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/
Read the official press releases published by the Council of the European Union between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026. If an official press release confirms the formal opening of any negotiation cluster other than Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) for Ukraine, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en
Read the official press releases of the European Commission. If they confirm the formal opening of any negotiation cluster other than Cluster 1 for Ukraine during the specified timeframe, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.

The accession negotiations with Ukraine are entirely suspended or terminated by the EU before July 10, 2026.


Will Serena Williams be awarded a wild card entry into the women's singles main draw at Wimbledon 2026?

The All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) officially awards Serena Williams a wild card entry into the women's singles main draw for the 2026 Wimbledon Championships.

The final women's singles wild card is awarded to another player, or the tournament begins without Serena Williams receiving a singles wild card.

https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/news/index.html
Read the official announcements page for Wimbledon 2026 wild cards. If Serena Williams is listed as a wild card recipient for the Ladies' Singles main draw, resolve YES. If the final spot is allocated to someone else or the tournament starts without her in the singles draw, resolve NO.

https://www.wtatennis.com/
Check the official WTA news or player profile for Serena Williams to confirm if she received a singles wild card for Wimbledon 2026.

The 2026 Wimbledon tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 2026.

Will Venus Williams win her first-round singles match at the 2026 Bad Homburg Open?

Venus Williams wins her first-round singles match (either by completing the match or via opponent retirement/walkover after the match starts) at the 2026 Bad Homburg Open.

Venus Williams loses her first-round singles match, withdraws before the match begins, or does not participate in the singles main draw of the 2026 Bad Homburg Open.

https://www.wtatennis.com/tournament/2033/bad-homburg/draws
Check the singles main draw and match results for the 2026 Bad Homburg Open. If Venus Williams is recorded as winning her first-round match, resolve YES. If she loses or does not play, resolve NO.

https://badhomburg-open.de/en/
Check the official tournament website's news or draws section to verify the outcome of Venus Williams' first-round singles match.

The 2026 Bad Homburg Open is cancelled or postponed beyond July 2026.


Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the National Crime Agency announce that the sanctioned oil tanker Smyrtos has been officially released from UK custody or anchorage?

The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), the National Crime Agency (NCA), or the UK Government officially announces that the oil tanker Smyrtos (intercepted on June 14, 2026) has been released from UK custody, detention, or its designated anchorage off the south coast of England, allowing it to resume its voyage.

No such official announcement of the vessel's release is made by the UK MoD, NCA, or UK Government, or the vessel remains detained/monitored under UK custody.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-defence
Read the official press releases and news updates on the UK Ministry of Defence homepage. A YES is decided if there is an official statement confirming the release of the vessel 'Smyrtos' from UK custody or anchorage. Otherwise, NO.

https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/news
Read the official news releases of the National Crime Agency. A YES is decided if an official statement confirms the release of the vessel 'Smyrtos' from UK custody or anchorage. Otherwise, NO.

The vessel Smyrtos is proven to have sunk, been destroyed, or suffered a catastrophic accident before any decision on its release or continued detention is announced.

Will Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issue an official press release or statement on its website specifically condemning or demanding the release of the vessel Smyrtos?

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation publishes an official statement, press release, or briefing transcript on its official website (mid.ru) that explicitly mentions the vessel 'Smyrtos' and condemns its interception by the UK or demands its release.

No official statement, press release, or briefing transcript mentioning 'Smyrtos' and condemning its interception or demanding its release is published on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website.

https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/
Read the English-language press releases and statements on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs news portal. A YES is decided if any official statement or briefing transcript published between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly names 'Smyrtos' and protests, condemns, or demands its release. Otherwise, NO.

https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/
Read the Russian-language press releases and statements on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs news portal. A YES is decided if any official statement or briefing transcript published between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly names 'Smyrtos' (Смиртос) and protests, condemns, or demands its release. Otherwise, NO.

The official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (mid.ru) is completely inaccessible and offline for the entire period from June 21, 2026, to July 10, 2026.


Explanation: Given Eriksen's second on-field collapse in 5 years, retirement is plausible but no announcement is imminent. In one month, he'll likely undergo medical evaluation before deciding; the absence of immediate signals suggests a low short-term likelihood.


Explanation: Eriksen just suffered a second on-field cardiac incident, which significantly increases the likelihood of medical advice strongly favoring retirement and a prompt announcement within the one-month window. However, his quick recovery, the apparent proper functioning of his pacemaker, and his demonstrated resilience after the 2021 incident suggest he may still attempt to continue or delay a final decision beyond July 7.


Explanation: Eriksen suffered a second on-field collapse today, which is a severe medical red flag that typically forces athletes to retire immediately for safety reasons. Given his age and the high likelihood of medical advice against continuing, an announcement before the July 7 deadline is highly probable.


Explanation: After his second on-field collapse on June 7, Eriksen recovered quickly and has not announced retirement as of June 22. Given the short deadline and his previous return from a similar incident, an immediate retirement announcement is unlikely, but medical advice could prompt a quick decision.


Explanation: While Eriksen's second on-field collapse creates serious pressure for a medical retirement decision before the 2026-27 pre-season, his stable recovery, history of returning from a more severe 2021 cardiac arrest, and the absence of any public retirement deliberation as of early June make a formal announcement by July 7 unlikely but plausible.


Explanation: Eriksen collapsed recently (June 7), and while a second incident raises serious concerns about his career longevity, medical investigations and decision-making processes typically take longer than the remaining two weeks before the deadline. The current reports indicate he is stable and in good spirits, suggesting a definitive retirement announcement by July 7 is unlikely despite the health scare.


Explanation: Initial reports suggest the drone likely originated from Russia, and the Latvian military has hinted at Russian involvement. However, past incidents involved Ukrainian drones that strayed, and official confirmation requires forensic analysis, which may not be conclusive by the deadline.


Explanation: Although media reports quote an army spokesman telling Reuters the drone came from Russia, the Latvian Armed Forces' official social media posts only described it as a foreign object affected by Russian electromagnetic warfare without explicit attribution, and recent regional incidents involving misidentified Ukrainian drones suggest authorities may remain cautious or silent on official channels. With a month to investigate, there is a moderate chance they will eventually publish explicit confirmation, but also a significant possibility they will not attribute it to Russia to avoid escalation or because the origin remains ambiguous.


Explanation: Multiple sources report the drone entered from Russia and was described as Russian by some outlets, but Latvian officials have not yet explicitly confirmed its origin. Given the context and typical attribution patterns, official confirmation is likely within the deadline.


Explanation: Early official statements (June 8) indicate Latvian authorities cannot yet determine the drone's origin, and the incident pattern—drones veering off course due to Russian electronic warfare—strongly suggests a Ukrainian drone, as seen in recent similar cases. While investigation could theoretically identify it as Russian, the low likelihood and precedent for attributing such stray drones to Ukraine make a YES resolution improbable.


Explanation: Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis stated on June 8 that determining the drone's country of origin or type was not possible, and subsequent reporting indicates it was likely a Ukrainian drone diverted by Russian electronic warfare, making an explicit official attribution to Russia by July 8 unlikely.


Explanation: Latvian officials have explicitly stated they cannot determine the drone's origin and attributed its entry to Russian electronic warfare without claiming Russian ownership. Recent precedent shows Baltic states often attribute such drones to Ukraine when origin is unclear.


Explanation: The European Parliament approved the regulations today, and EU member states have already endorsed the deal. The Council's formal adoption is a procedural rubber stamp expected within days to meet the July 4 deadline, making it highly likely by July 3.

Explanation: After Council approval, publication in the Official Journal is a routine step to enact the regulations. Given the urgency to meet the July 4 deadline, publication by July 10 is almost certain.


Explanation: The European Parliament approved the deal on June 16 and EU capitals have already endorsed it, leaving only a formal Council rubber stamp; with the agreement targeting entry into force by July 4 and July 3 being the last working day before that Saturday deadline, adoption by then is highly likely but not certain due to potential procedural delays.

Explanation: Since the regulations target entry into force by July 4 and Official Journal publication typically follows within days of Council adoption, the July 10 deadline provides ample buffer; even if Council approval slips slightly past July 3, publication is still very likely by July 10.


Explanation: The European Parliament has approved the deal, and multiple sources indicate member states already endorsed it, with formal Council approval expected before Trump's July 4 deadline to avoid higher tariffs.

Explanation: Publication in the Official Journal typically follows Council approval within days, and the July 4 deadline pressure suggests rapid processing, though administrative delays could push it past July 10.


Explanation: EU capitals have already endorsed the deal and multiple sources report formal Council approval is expected on June 26, well before the July 3 deadline. The process is a formality, and the US deadline of July 4 adds pressure to ensure timely adoption.

Explanation: Once adopted by the Council, publication in the Official Journal typically follows within days. With the US deadline looming, the EU is motivated to complete all steps quickly, making publication by July 10 highly probable.


Explanation: EU capitals had already politically endorsed the agreement before the June 16 parliamentary vote, and multiple outlets expected the Council’s formal rubber stamp within days—specifically by June 26—making adoption by the July 3 deadline highly likely.

Explanation: Official Journal publication routinely follows Council adoption within a few days, and the July 10 deadline provides ample buffer even if the Council’s expected late-June adoption slips slightly into early July.


Explanation: The European Parliament approved the deal on June 16, 2026, and multiple sources indicate the Council's formal approval is expected in the coming days or weeks, with one source specifically mentioning June 26 as the likely date for the final nod.

Explanation: After Council approval, publication in the Official Journal is typically a formality that follows within days. Given the tight July 4 deadline mentioned in the articles and the expected Council approval by late June, publication by July 10 seems likely.


Explanation: The national annual CPI remained at 3.2% in May for three straight months, with rising core inflation (3.0%) and upward pressure from transport/tourism, but offset by moderating food prices and government energy measures. A slight uptick to 3.3% in June is plausible but not assured given recent stability.


Explanation: Spain's headline CPI has been stable at 3.2% for two months, restrained by falling energy prices and easing food costs despite core inflation accelerating to 3.0%. While transport and tourism remain elevated due to the Iran conflict, the recent monthly moderation to +0.1% and mixed regional data make a jump to 3.3% somewhat less likely than a flat or lower print, though upside risks remain material.


Explanation: Spain's annual CPI has remained stable at 3.2% for three consecutive months through May 2026, with inflation pressures from transport and tourism offset by declines in clothing and food prices. Given this stability and ongoing geopolitical shocks, the probability of reaching 3.3% or higher in June appears slightly below even odds.


Explanation: BBVA Research forecasts June inflation at 3.6–3.7%, and strong upward pressures from energy (Iran war) and services make a rise from May's 3.2% highly probable; the flash estimate is very likely to reach 3.3% or higher.


Explanation: BBVA Research explicitly forecasts June CPI at 3.6–3.7%, while Funcas projects a 3.4% annual average with the sharpest 0.8pp jump delayed until July. With May inflation already at 3.2% and core pressures accelerating, the balance of risks favors a June flash estimate of at least 3.3%, though base effects and the exact timing of fuel-price pass-through create meaningful downside uncertainty.


Explanation: Spain's inflation has remained at 3.2% for three consecutive months, with underlying inflation rising to 3% and experts forecasting a potential increase to 3.6-3.7% in June due to the withdrawal of fuel tax relief and ongoing geopolitical tensions.


Explanation: Xi's visit is confirmed and both sides seek to project unity; despite North Korea's firm nuclear stance, a joint statement focusing on economic cooperation and bilateral ties is customary and highly likely.


Explanation: The articles indicate Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea begins on June 8, 2026, so any joint statement would typically be published during or immediately after the trip, before the June 14–July 7 resolution window. Additionally, Pyongyang’s fresh, public rejection of nuclear negotiations creates a substantive policy gap with Beijing’s official denuclearization stance, making a communiqué harder to agree upon.


Explanation: Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea is confirmed and joint statements are common during such high-level bilateral meetings, especially given China's interest in reaffirming ties. Recent articles emphasize the visit's significance and North Korea's focus on strengthening alliances, making a joint statement likely.


Explanation: Xi's state visit is described as 'historic' with plans to set a new direction for bilateral ties, making a joint statement highly likely. The publication window after the visit suggests time for finalizing a communiqué, and past precedent (2019 visit) included such documents.


Explanation: Xi Jinping's two-day state visit to North Korea on June 8-9, 2026 is confirmed and underway, with both leaders emphasizing the 'invincible' friendship and holding a 'historic meeting.' Such high-level China-DPRK summits typically produce joint statements or communiques, and the framing of this visit as a major strategic moment makes a formal joint declaration likely. However, no joint statement has been explicitly reported yet in the provided articles, and North Korea's recent nuclear assertiveness (Kim Yo-jong's statement) could complicate communique language, introducing some uncertainty.


Explanation: Xi's visit is a high-profile two-day summit aimed at strengthening bilateral ties, and such visits typically culminate in joint statements or communiqués to formalize outcomes. However, no explicit mention of a joint statement appears in the initial coverage, and past visits have sometimes omitted formal documents due to diplomatic sensitivities.


Explanation: Santos Cerdán is under investigation for a scandal, but there is no immediate sign of resignation or expulsion from Congress within the one-month deadline. Such processes typically take longer to develop.


```json
{
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "id": "q-356eb3b6-2",
      "probability": 0.18,
      "rationale": "Santos Cerdán faces serious judicial allegations and the secrecy of proceedings was partially lifted today, but formal removal or voluntary resignation of a congressional seat within just 30 days is uncommon in Spain absent immediate detention or a binding sentence; institutional and party pressure may mount, yet the short timeline makes the outcome unlikely though non-negligible."
    }
  ]
}
```


Explanation: Despite serious judicial investigations and damaging revelations about the alleged 'cloacas' plot, formal removal by the Congreso is extremely rare and slow, and Spanish politicians typically resist resigning their parliamentary seat within weeks of being imputed, making a departure within the 30-day window unlikely.


Explanation: Santos Cerdán is implicated in ongoing investigations but no current reports indicate imminent resignation or removal. The deadline is one month away, and political resignations typically require stronger triggers than current developments.


Explanation: Santos Cerdán has been formally investigated for his role in the alleged scheme, increasing pressure to resign, but no resignation has been announced as of the most recent articles (2026-06-02). Given the short deadline (2026-07-02) and typical delays in political resignations, the probability is low but non-negligible.


Explanation: Santos Cerdán is implicated in judicial investigations regarding alleged 'cloacas' operations and misuse of PSOE funds, but there is no indication he has resigned or been expelled from Congress as of early June 2026. Spanish politicians typically resist resigning from parliamentary seats unless formal judicial proceedings force removal, and the timeline to July 2 is short for such procedural outcomes.


Explanation: Santos Cerdán is implicated in the 'Leire Díez case' scandal with allegations of putting party resources at disposal of a plot to undermine judicial investigations. While facing serious legal troubles, the articles don't indicate he has resigned or been removed from his Congressional seat, though he's referred to as 'ex número tres del PSOE' suggesting he may have stepped down from party leadership positions.


Explanation: All sources confirm radiation levels remained normal immediately after the strike, with no spent fuel in the damaged building. Barring unforeseen secondary effects or new attacks, a later increase report is very unlikely.


Explanation: Multiple official sources report radiation levels remain within normal limits immediately after the strike, with no spent fuel present in the damaged building. The IAEA plans to inspect but current data suggests no threshold exceedance is likely.


Explanation: Multiple official sources including Energoatom and the IAEA have confirmed that radiation levels remained within normal limits immediately after the June 7 strike, with no radioactive contamination detected. Given the facility was empty and the IAEA's ongoing monitoring, the probability of a subsequent report exceeding limits by July 7 appears very low.


Explanation: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha publicly announced on Facebook that he will return his Polish Order of Merit in response to Poland stripping Zelensky of his award, indicating strong intent to follow through before the July 10 deadline.

Explanation: While the diplomatic dispute escalated with Poland revoking Zelensky's award, the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference is scheduled for June 25-26 with both countries as hosts, suggesting it will proceed despite tensions.


Explanation: Multiple articles confirm that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha publicly announced he would return his Polish Order of Merit in response to Poland stripping Zelensky of his order, and other Ukrainian officials have already begun returning their awards.

Explanation: While the conference is still scheduled, escalating diplomatic tensions over the order dispute and uncertainty about Zelensky's attendance suggest a significant possibility of postponement or cancellation.


Explanation: Despite the high-profile resignation and political pressure, Keir Starmer is still Prime Minister as of June 11. A leadership challenge is possible but unlikely to remove him within the 29-day window, as party processes typically take longer. He has also stated he will serve his full term.


Explanation: All official reports immediately following the June 7 strike, including from Energoatom and IAEA, confirm radiation levels remained within normal operational limits. No radioactive contamination occurred as the building hit was empty and spent fuel was stored safely at a distance. It is highly unlikely that a subsequent report will indicate an increase.


Explanation: Multiple news sources confirm the Knicks won the 2026 NBA championship on June 14. Given the 53-year drought and New York's tradition of ticker-tape parades, a public celebration within the deadline is virtually certain.


Explanation: A ticker-tape parade and City Hall ceremony are already announced for June 18, 2026, per Bloomberg. No indication of cancellation despite some post-game violence; such parades are nearly always held as planned.


Explanation: All provided articles state that Energoatom and the IAEA confirmed radiation levels remained within normal limits immediately after the June 7 strike, which damaged an empty reception building with no spent fuel present and caused no radioactive contamination. Given that the actual fuel is stored hundreds of meters away in intact casks and no elevated readings were detected, a future report exceeding limits is highly improbable.


Explanation: Keir Starmer faces significant pressure following the defense minister's resignation and ongoing political challenges, but no immediate leadership change is confirmed. The deadline is short, and historical context suggests prime ministers typically survive such crises unless a clear successor emerges.


Explanation: Sybiha publicly announced on June 21, 2026, that he would return his Order of Merit, and given the rapidly escalating diplomatic tit-for-tat (with Zelensky already returning his order via courier), it is highly likely he follows through before the July 10 deadline.

Explanation: Despite tensions and uncertainty over Zelensky's attendance, there is no official indication of postponement or cancellation, and both governments likely want to maintain cooperation on reconstruction; thus, the conference will probably proceed as planned.


Explanation: Toy Story 5 releases on June 19, 2026, and these June 16 reviews confirm it is opening that weekend. A major Pixar franchise film opening in mid-June with no mentioned wide-release competition is overwhelmingly likely to top the domestic box office in its opening weekend.


Explanation: Toy Story 5 is a highly anticipated Pixar sequel with strong brand recognition and positive reviews, suggesting strong opening weekend box office performance. The June 19-21, 2026 weekend is its likely release window based on the review timing, giving it a high chance to debut at #1.


Explanation: Sybiha publicly announced on his Facebook page that he will return the Order of Merit 'soon' in response to Poland revoking Zelenskyy's Order of the White Eagle, making it highly likely he will formally return it before July 10.

Explanation: The conference is only a week away with no announced plans to postpone despite the diplomatic spat; Poland emphasizes continued strategic support and the conference involves major international stakeholders, making cancellation or postponement unlikely.


Explanation: The Knicks have just won the 2026 NBA championship, ending a 53-year drought, making a celebratory parade highly likely. New York City traditionally hosts 'Canyon of Heroes' parades for major sports championships, and the deadline allows ample time for planning.


Explanation: Toy Story 5 is projected to have a record opening weekend of $150-175 million, which would likely make it #1 at the box office for its debut weekend of June 19-21, 2026.


Explanation: Starmer faces a severe leadership crisis with cabinet resignations and an expected challenge after the June 19 by-election. His defiant stance and the short timeframe (until July 10) make his removal likely, though resistance or procedural delays could allow him to survive.


Explanation: Multiple credible sources report a verbal agreement between Real Madrid and Chelsea for Cucurella, with Fabrizio Romano and others confirming the deal will be formalized after the World Cup. The July 10 deadline provides sufficient time for the official announcement, though no formal confirmation has yet been made by either club.


 ```json
{"forecasts": [{"id": "q-6c2b0c97-2", "probability": 0.99, "rationale": "Pre-weekend industry projections estimated Toy Story 5 would open to $150–175 million domestically, which would easily make it the biggest debut of 2026, and Variety explicitly reported it would 'rule over North American charts.' With no major competing releases mentioned and a projected gross far ahead of any other film, it is virtually certain to be #1 for the June 19–21 weekend."}]}
```


```json
{"forecasts": [{"id": "q-37435e85-2", "probability": 0.05, "rationale": "Ukrainian authorities and the IAEA immediately confirmed radiation levels at the CSFSF remained within established safety limits after the June 7 strike, which hit an empty reception building containing no spent fuel and caused a quickly extinguished fire. Given the absence of a radiological source in the damaged structure and the current stable readings, an official report of exceeded limits within the next month is highly unlikely, though not impossible if unforeseen structural degradation or subsequent events alter conditions."}]}
```


Explanation: Article 0 explicitly states that a ticker-tape parade and City Hall ceremony honoring the Knicks has been announced for June 18, 2026, which is well before the July 10 deadline. There is no information suggesting this event will be canceled or postponed.


Explanation: Toy Story 5 is opening this weekend with projected $150M+ domestic gross, far exceeding any competition; no other major releases are mentioned, making it virtually certain to be #1.


Explanation: Multiple credible sources report that Real Madrid officially announced the signing of Marc Cucurella on June 15, 2026, which is before the July 10 deadline. This satisfies the YES condition.


```json
{
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "id": "q-481c3dfd-1",
      "probability": 0.95,
      "rationale": "The Knicks won the 2026 NBA championship on June 13, and New York City has a strong tradition of holding ticker-tape parades for its major sports champions. With nearly four weeks until the July 10 deadline and immense fan demand after a 53-year drought, a public civic celebration is highly probable, though not guaranteed until formally announced."
    }
  ]
}
```


Explanation: Toy Story 5 is a major Pixar/Disney release with strong franchise legacy, positive early reviews from June 16, and no indication of significant competing openings on the same weekend. Historically, all Toy Story sequels have opened at #1 domestically.


Explanation: Multiple reputable sources report a verbal agreement is in place but explicitly state the official announcement will be made after the 2026 World Cup, which ends on July 19—after the July 10 deadline. While an early announcement remains possible, the consistent reporting makes it unlikely.


Explanation: Multiple reliable sources report a verbal agreement, but all indicate the official announcement will come after the World Cup (which ends July 19, past the July 10 deadline). Real Madrid typically avoids mid-tournament announcements for active players.


Explanation: Article 0 explicitly reports that an official ticker-tape parade and City Hall ceremony were announced for June 18, 2026, which falls before the July 10 deadline. Given that today is June 27 and no reports of cancellation or postponement were provided, the event has almost certainly already occurred as planned.


Explanation: Sybiha publicly promised to return his Polish Order of Merit and multiple reputable Polish outlets report that he and other top Ukrainian officials have already renounced their Polish decorations in solidarity with Zelenskyy. Given the escalating diplomatic dispute and the fact that the deadline is over two weeks away, official confirmation of his returned or formally renounced award is highly likely.


Explanation: Multiple reputable sources including Reuters and BBC report that Real Madrid officially announced Marc Cucurella's signing from Chelsea on June 15, 2026. Since this date is well before the July 10, 2026 deadline, the event has already occurred.


Explanation: Sybiha explicitly wrote on Facebook that he sees no possibility of retaining his 2022 Polish Order of Merit and pledged to return it to Poland "in the near future," making official confirmation within three weeks probable. However, logistical delays or a potential diplomatic climb-down could still prevent the formal handover from being confirmed by the deadline.

Explanation: The conference is only six days away, involves major international stakeholders like the EU and G7, and neither co-host has indicated any intent to cancel despite the escalating historical dispute. Both governments have strong strategic and practical incentives to ensure the reconstruction summit proceeds as scheduled.


Explanation: Starmer faces a likely leadership challenge and ministerial resignations, but the procedural process to remove a sitting Prime Minister typically takes weeks. Given the short timeframe until July 10 and Starmer's refusal to resign, he is likely to remain in office through the deadline.


Explanation: Multiple sources confirm Real Madrid officially announced the signing of Marc Cucurella on June 15, 2026. Since this date is prior to the July 10, 2026 deadline, the event is certain.


Explanation: Junts and PP have aligned to force a vote on an amendment urging Sánchez to call elections, with majority support from PP, Vox, and Junts. The vote is scheduled for Thursday, June 18, 2026, during the specified week.

Explanation: Even if the motion passes, Sánchez has exclusive authority to call elections and historically resists such pressure. No indication exists that he will announce dissolution by July 10, 2026.


Explanation: The incident occurred outside UK territorial waters (20 nautical miles south of Isle of Wight), no injuries or damage occurred, and UK officials are already treating it as an isolated episode unrelated to the recent tanker seizure. While the incident is serious, the UK's measured response so far ('investigating reports') and the fact that warning shots at sea in international waters have ambiguous legal standing suggest formal diplomatic summoning is less likely than not, though tensions over Russian shadow fleet activity keep it plausible.


Explanation: Ukrainian authorities (Energoatom) and the IAEA already confirm radiation levels remain within established limits after the June 7 strike, the damaged building contained no spent fuel, and the resulting fire was extinguished quickly, so a subsequent official report of exceeded limits within one month is unlikely but not impossible.


Explanation: The UK MoD is investigating the incident and has not ruled out a diplomatic response, but they currently treat it as isolated and unrelated to recent sanctions enforcement. Historical precedent suggests summoning is likely for such incidents, but the short timeframe and initial cautious tone reduce certainty.


```json
{
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "id": "q-481c3dfd-1",
      "probability": 0.98,
      "rationale": "The Knicks clinched the 2026 NBA title on June 13, and major-market teams virtually always hold public victory parades within days or weeks of winning. With nearly a month until the July 10 deadline and massive fan enthusiasm after a 53-year drought, a civic celebration in New York City is overwhelmingly likely."
    }
  ]
}
```


Explanation: Junts ha presentado una enmienda para exigir la disolución de las Cortes, y tanto el PP como Vox la apoyan; con sus 177 escaños suman mayoría absoluta para aprobarla en la votación del jueves 18 de junio, según confirman múltiples fuentes.

Explanation: Aunque la presión del Congreso será intensa, la moción no es vinculante y Sánchez ha mostrado resistencia histórica a convocar elecciones anticipadas; además, podría intentar mantener la legislatura con apoyos puntuales del PNV u otros, por lo que la probabilidad de un anuncio antes del 10 de julio es moderada.


Explanation: The Mesa of the Congress blocked the PP and Junts amendments demanding elections for the June 18 plenary, leaving no such proposal on the agenda. With no alternative motion reported, a vote explicitly urging dissolution during this week is extremely unlikely.

Explanation: Articles confirm Sánchez's firm refusal to advance elections, intending to govern until summer 2027. Despite Senate pressure, a unilateral official dissolution announcement by July 10 appears very improbable.


Explanation: Energoatom and the IAEA both confirmed immediately after the June 7 strike that radiation levels remained within normal limits and no radioactive contamination occurred, as the struck building was empty and actual spent fuel was stored hundreds of meters away. With IAEA inspectors already on-site verifying no contamination, the chance that SNRIU or Energoatom will reverse this assessment and report exceeded limits by early July is negligible.


Explanation: The UK government initially characterized the incident as a minor nautical event, minimizing its significance. While public and political pressure could prompt a summons, the current stance suggests a low probability of formal diplomatic escalation.


Explanation: Recent articles indicate ongoing military escalations and stalled ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, with both sides exchanging strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. The fragile ceasefire is under strain, and no progress toward a bilateral agreement is reported despite Trump's optimistic statements.


Explanation: The incident is a serious provocation near UK waters, and the UK has a history of summoning the Russian ambassador for such acts. However, the UK may opt for a measured response pending investigation, and the incident occurred in international waters, reducing the certainty of a formal summons.


Explanation: Despite a fragile ceasefire since early April, negotiations are stalled, recent military exchanges continue, and Trump has hinted at alternative outcomes, making a permanent agreement by the July 5 deadline unlikely.


Explanation: The Congress's Mesa has already blocked the PP and Junts amendments from being voted on, and there's no indication this decision will be reversed during the specified week.

Explanation: Despite growing political pressure from multiple parties including key government partner PNV, Sánchez has consistently stated his intention to serve his full term until 2027.