{"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:31.576Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4324,"completionTokens":585,"cost":0.01163349,"latencyMs":1571,"rawSha256":"eb29fcf9259cc0fdda1a0b987ba9b914e78c26c16a6975ed4e6d781dcaf0319a","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Christian Eriksen officially announce his retirement from professional football on or before July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Christian Eriksen publicly and officially announces his retirement from playing professional football, or his current club VfL Wolfsburg or the Danish Football Association (DBU) officially announces his retirement on his behalf, between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of Christian Eriksen's retirement from professional football is made by him, his club, or his national association on or before July 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.dbu.dk\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.vfl-wolfsburg.de\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T18:27:53Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player dies before an announcement is made.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Danish Football Association (DBU) release an official medical update confirming that Christian Eriksen has undergone surgery to replace or adjust his pacemaker/ICD device by July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Danish Football Association (DBU) or VfL Wolfsburg publishes an official statement between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, confirming that Christian Eriksen has undergone a surgical procedure to replace, adjust, or upgrade his implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or pacemaker following his collapse on June 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official statement confirming such a surgical procedure is published by the DBU or VfL Wolfsburg on or before July 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.dbu.dk\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.vfl-wolfsburg.de\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T18:27:53Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player dies before any such announcement or before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:36.230Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"0ec59700-63a9-480c-976c-0bf803bc2d90","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3440,"completionTokens":639,"cost":0.01080189,"latencyMs":1076,"rawSha256":"e6962ee0091e999705c181afbaa792d53bde70b57d974c48db7af10e08ada8cd","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announce an increase in the federal funds rate at its scheduled meeting in June 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate (e.g., raising the target range above its pre-meeting level) in its official press release or statement concluding the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Federal Reserve announces that it is maintaining or lowering the target range for the federal funds rate in its official press release or statement concluding the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bloomberg.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-18T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 is cancelled, postponed past July 10, 2026, or does not result in a policy decision statement.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the United States be reported by AAA as $4.30 or higher on any day between June 17, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report (or official AAA national average gasoline price updates) reports the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline as $4.300 or higher on at least one day during the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The AAA national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline remains strictly below $4.300 on every single day throughout the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://gasprices.aaa.com/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T12:46:41Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"AAA permanently ceases publication of national average gasoline prices before July 10, 2026, and no reliable historical archive or equivalent official source is available to verify the daily prices.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:39.986Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"12aa1a06-cdb4-4e1f-85be-716d640d6fc8","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4939,"completionTokens":611,"cost":0.012778425,"latencyMs":718,"rawSha256":"f5ddcba37762ec0e400146ae90766dba44f059b930b211199207b1335f66eda7","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Russia and the United States sign an agreement to plan a tunnel between Chukotka and Alaska by June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A formal agreement, memorandum of understanding, or bilateral treaty regarding the planning, feasibility study, or construction of a tunnel connecting the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and Alaska in the United States is signed by authorized representatives of both the Russian and United States governments (or their designated state-backed entities) between June 4, 2026, and June 15, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such agreement is signed by both parties by the end of June 15, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.kommersant.ru\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-16T00:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The governments of Russia or the United States officially state that the reports of a planned signing on June 5, 2026, were entirely fabricated or false, and no negotiations on the matter took place.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person bilateral meeting between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet face-to-face in person for bilateral talks or negotiations at any location worldwide between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, as confirmed by official statements from both the Ukrainian and Russian governments or major international news agencies.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No in-person bilateral meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin takes place between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.apnews.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-04T19:30:36Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Either Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Vladimir Putin ceases to hold their respective presidential offices prior to the meeting taking place.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:43.551Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3171,"completionTokens":586,"cost":0.009930195,"latencyMs":834,"rawSha256":"87abe9f322b38d697c1f71dbc30944df2a654cb3c23d4ba95b97c89bca8761cc","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Latvia's Ministry of Defense or National Armed Forces officially identify the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, as being of Russian origin or manufacture?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ministry of Defense of Latvia or the Latvian National Armed Forces issues an official statement, press release, or social media post explicitly identifying the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, as being of Russian origin, Russian manufacture, or operated by the Russian Federation.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Ministry of Defense of Latvia or the Latvian National Armed Forces does not issue such an official statement by the deadline, or they explicitly attribute the drone to a different country (such as Ukraine or Belarus).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mod.gov.lv/en\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.mil.lv/en\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-08T07:35:01Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Latvian government retracts the claim that a drone was shot down on June 8, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania officially report another airspace violation by a military drone between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ministry of Defense or the National Armed Forces of Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania officially announces that a military drone (unmanned aerial vehicle) has violated or entered their sovereign airspace without authorization during the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement of an unauthorized military drone entering the airspace of Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania is made by the respective national defense authorities during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mod.gov.lv/en\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://kaitseministeerium.ee/en\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-08T07:35:01Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The official websites of the Ministries of Defense of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are all completely inaccessible for more than 48 consecutive hours during the resolution window.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:47.107Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3946,"completionTokens":552,"cost":0.01077813,"latencyMs":724,"rawSha256":"4f6be8554bc677fa4614d471ac42c69fdf718a7cadd75d49a9ac39b8eaa7a523","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Council of the European Union formally approve the EU-US tariff agreement before July 4, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Council of the European Union (also referred to as the Council of Ministers) formally adopts, approves, or confirms the regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement (which was approved by the European Parliament on June 16, 2026).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Council of the European Union does not formally adopt, approve, or confirm the regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement before July 4, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/oj/direct-access.html\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-04T00:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The EU-US tariff agreement is officially declared void or canceled by both parties prior to the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the EU-US tariff agreement regulations approved by the European Parliament on June 16, 2026, be published in the Official Journal of the European Union by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement (including the elimination of tariffs on US industrial goods and lobster imports) are published in the Official Journal of the European Union.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement are not published in the Official Journal of the European Union by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/oj/direct-access.html\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://commission.europa.eu/news_en\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The European Union officially abandons the trade agreement before publication.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:50.177Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"2110b2c3-6d5b-42aa-9a33-1d1a556663c3","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4850,"completionTokens":460,"cost":0.01130085,"latencyMs":764,"rawSha256":"3335005aa04bca86caf3549edc675f6e8383b086d869bcdbe318767ec975cdf4","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the official funeral service for Cardinal Camillo Ruini be celebrated by Pope Francis?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official funeral service for Cardinal Camillo Ruini is celebrated by Pope Francis as the main celebrant.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official funeral service for Cardinal Camillo Ruini is celebrated by someone other than Pope Francis (such as the Dean of the College of Cardinals), or no public funeral service is held.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.vaticannews.va\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.ansa.it\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The funeral service is postponed to a date after July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Pope Francis issue an official telegram of condolence or a public message of tribute specifically dedicated to the death of Cardinal Camillo Ruini by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Holy See Press Office or official Vatican media publishes a telegram of condolence or a formal message of tribute from Pope Francis dedicated to Cardinal Camillo Ruini.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official telegram of condolence or formal message of tribute from Pope Francis dedicated to Cardinal Camillo Ruini is published.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://press.vatican.va\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.vaticannews.va\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:53.175Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4853,"completionTokens":594,"cost":0.012499245,"latencyMs":858,"rawSha256":"b0c08c7157a7dc83990f1881641d52a5854b89604373dcf31b6dd56082f1a9c4","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of Spain's annual Consumer Price Index (IPC) for June 2026, published by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), be 3.3% or higher?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The flash estimate of the annual IPC (tasa de variación anual estimada del IPC) for June 2026, published by the INE, is 3.3% or higher.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The flash estimate of the annual IPC (tasa de variación anual estimada del IPC) for June 2026, published by the INE, is 3.2% or lower.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.ine.es/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.epdata.es/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The INE does not publish the flash estimate of the IPC for June 2026 by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of Spain's annual Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (IPCA) for June 2026, published by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), be higher than the flash estimate of the annual IPC for the same month?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The flash estimate of the annual IPCA (tasa de variación anual estimada del IPCA) for June 2026 is strictly greater than the flash estimate of the annual IPC (tasa de variación anual estimada del IPC) for June 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The flash estimate of the annual IPCA for June 2026 is less than or equal to the flash estimate of the annual IPC for June 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.ine.es/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.epdata.es/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The INE does not publish both the flash estimate of the IPC and the IPCA for June 2026 by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:34:56.534Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4115,"completionTokens":480,"cost":0.010387575,"latencyMs":1361,"rawSha256":"a2dc22915f16889221c0a1d3eec5c14d05cd28e8961ce1213ad89cd4626a873a","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hold a bilateral meeting in North Korea between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A bilateral meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un takes place in North Korea, with official confirmation of the meeting occurring during the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such bilateral meeting takes place in North Korea, or the meeting is not officially confirmed to have occurred during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.apnews.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T04:20:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The scheduled visit of Xi Jinping to North Korea is officially announced as canceled or postponed prior to June 14, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will North Korea conduct an officially confirmed nuclear test between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"North Korea conducts a nuclear test, and this test is officially confirmed by international monitoring agencies (such as the CTBTO) or state media (such as KCNA) during the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"North Korea does not conduct an officially confirmed nuclear test during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.apnews.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T04:20:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:00.039Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"307e0001-13c1-43a8-8983-0035414b3700","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3517,"completionTokens":554,"cost":0.010158885,"latencyMs":698,"rawSha256":"19a603490201551a5a0306588d12d05a2a6c6e8b30e7484715ad994cd3055161","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Thomas Partey play in Ghana's World Cup match against England on June 23, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The question resolves to YES if Thomas Partey is officially recorded as having played (either as a starter or a substitute) in Ghana's World Cup Group L match against England scheduled for June 23, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The question resolves to NO if Thomas Partey does not play in the match, or if the match is postponed beyond July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/sport\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-24T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match is cancelled or postponed beyond July 10, 2026.\",\n \"Ghana is disqualified from the tournament before the match takes place.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Thomas Partey play in Ghana's World Cup match against Croatia on June 27, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The question resolves to YES if Thomas Partey is officially recorded as having played (either as a starter or a substitute) in Ghana's World Cup Group L match against Croatia scheduled for June 27, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The question resolves to NO if Thomas Partey does not play in the match, or if the match is postponed beyond July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/sport\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-28T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match is cancelled or postponed beyond July 10, 2026.\",\n \"Ghana is disqualified from the tournament before the match takes place.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:03.080Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3367c326-c249-48ad-884d-a3a95322eca1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3282,"completionTokens":508,"cost":0.00940005,"latencyMs":855,"rawSha256":"29315020547cb76c076530f3bc2c534b1543dc0248bc55d09407d74e845721ea","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Ibrahima Konaté on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF officially announces on its website (realmadrid.com) or verified social media channels that they have signed or reached an agreement to sign Ibrahima Konaté.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF does not officially announce the signing of Ibrahima Konaté on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://theathletic.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Ibrahima Konaté officially announces his retirement from professional football before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Denzel Dumfries on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF officially announces on its website (realmadrid.com) or verified social media channels that they have signed or reached an agreement to sign Denzel Dumfries.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF does not officially announce the signing of Denzel Dumfries on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://theathletic.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Denzel Dumfries officially announces his retirement from professional football before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:05.810Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"356eb3b6-ad28-4063-ae27-2d7a131a6d1a","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4901,"completionTokens":611,"cost":0.012721995,"latencyMs":841,"rawSha256":"a3c8ee4f4b47f7312bf41dde6fda3b0bb506237f356a0256533d17638396bfc1","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Audiencia Nacional or the Juzgado de Instrucción number 9 of Madrid issue a formal ruling or order to place Santos Cerdán under formal investigation (imputado/investigado) in connection with the Leire Díez case by July 2, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A formal judicial resolution, order (auto), or official statement from either the Audiencia Nacional (under Judge Santiago Pedraz) or the Juzgado de Instrucción No. 9 of Madrid (under Judge Arturo Zamarriego) is published or reported by credible media, explicitly declaring Santos Cerdán as formally under investigation (imputado or investigado) in the criminal proceedings involving Leire Díez.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such formal judicial resolution or order declaring Santos Cerdán as formally under investigation (imputado or investigado) in this case is issued or reported by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.poderjudicial.es\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T12:40:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The judicial cases against Leire Díez in both courts are completely dismissed or archived before the deadline without any ruling on Santos Cerdán's status.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Spanish Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) approve a motion to establish a parliamentary investigative commission (comisión de investigación) specifically targeting the alleged PSOE judicial destabilization network involving Leire Díez by July 2, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The plenary or the Board of the Congress of Deputies officially votes to approve and establish a parliamentary investigative commission (comisión de investigación) specifically to investigate the alleged network, activities, or payments involving Leire Díez and the PSOE.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such investigative commission is officially approved by the Congress of Deputies by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.congreso.es\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.elmundo.es\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T12:40:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Spanish Parliament is dissolved or national elections are called before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:09.645Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"37435e85-30c2-46e3-a923-6fae6a7247e9","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3754,"completionTokens":616,"cost":0.01106325,"latencyMs":1219,"rawSha256":"ffc0e3d99b381c9e741d9a5f229a3afc25441166cfe91d990e348d6625630c09","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) publish an official report or statement confirming that its team has completed an on-site inspection of the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility (CSFSF) near Chernobyl following the June 7, 2026 drone strike?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The IAEA publishes an official press release, update, or report on its website (iaea.org) explicitly stating that an IAEA team has visited and completed an on-site inspection or assessment of the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility (CSFSF) near 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Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine (SNRIU), or the State Emergency Service of Ukraine reports that radiation levels at or immediately surrounding the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility (CSFSF) have risen above normal operational safety limits as a direct or indirect consequence of the June 7, 2026 strike or its aftermath.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official Ukrainian nuclear or emergency authority reports radiation levels exceeding normal operational safety limits at the facility during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://energoatom.com.ua\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://snriu.gov.ua\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T09:01:21Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The facility is completely captured by Russian forces, preventing Ukrainian authorities from monitoring or reporting on the site's radiation levels.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:13.360Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3a7b5c02-c785-4373-9e1a-e11cfb0ce6a7","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4302,"completionTokens":670,"cost":0.01235817,"latencyMs":747,"rawSha256":"ea9aa555bc2e430d853e699ef736fd57865e8b93d7c8ad965350be41b1e0b13e","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the official Instagram account of the late Marjane Satrapi (@marjanesatrapi) publish any new post or story between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official Instagram account of Marjane Satrapi (@marjanesatrapi) publishes at least one new post, reel, or story (including posthumous tributes, family statements, or archival content shared by her estate/representatives) that is publicly visible between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No new posts, reels, or stories are published on the official Instagram account of Marjane Satrapi (@marjanesatrapi) during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.instagram.com/marjanesatrapi\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lemonde.fr\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-04T08:15:31Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Instagram account @marjanesatrapi is deleted, deactivated, or made completely private before June 11, 2026, preventing verification.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the French Ministry of Culture or the French Presidency officially announce the posthumous award of any national honor (such as the Legion of Honour or the Ordre des Arts et des Lettres) to Marjane Satrapi between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official announcement or decree is published by the French government (via the Journal Officiel, the Ministry of Culture, or the Elysée Palace) between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, stating that Marjane Satrapi has been posthumously awarded a national honor.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement or decree is published by the French government during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.culture.gouv.fr\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-04T08:15:31Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The French government's official gazette (Journal Officiel) is completely inaccessible due to technical outages lasting the entire period from June 11, 2026, to July 4, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:17.081Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3d03e1d7-2579-4036-ac20-5a9cc5267b86","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4028,"completionTokens":540,"cost":0.01079298,"latencyMs":787,"rawSha256":"c37b81d8d37839899591132d5dcf182e8eb400b031bcc4a9868f0658a7b54f19","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha officially return his Polish Order of Merit to Poland by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Polish government, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or official statements from Andrij Sybiha confirm that his Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland (received in 2022) has been physically or officially returned to Poland.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"There is no official confirmation of the return of the award by the deadline, or the award remains in his possession.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://mfa.gov.ua/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.pap.pl/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Andrij Sybiha is no longer the Foreign Minister of Ukraine as of June 19, 2026, due to prior resignation not related to this dispute.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"diplomatic-action\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Poland and Ukraine jointly host the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdansk on June 25-26, 2026, as scheduled?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdansk begins on June 25 or June 26, 2026, with both Poland and Ukraine participating as co-hosts.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The conference is officially cancelled, postponed to a date after June 26, 2026, or either Poland or Ukraine officially withdraws from co-hosting the event.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.pl/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://mfa.gov.ua/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-27T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The conference is disrupted or cancelled due to an unrelated force majeure event such as an extreme weather event or a major military escalation in Gdansk.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:20.558Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3fe38d6e-888d-44f7-bb23-af091ea2dbdc","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4210,"completionTokens":519,"cost":0.01087614,"latencyMs":889,"rawSha256":"42d791f11e2e44bc028284e1545e76afe0c000c4dd1e994647f96659f5f57d09","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Keir Starmer resign or be removed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official website of the UK Prime Minister (gov.uk/government/organisations/prime-ministers-office-10-downing-street) or an official statement from Buckingham Palace confirms that Keir Starmer has resigned, been removed, or otherwise ceased to hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Keir Starmer remains the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom continuously through the end of July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/prime-ministers-office-10-downing-street\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the UK government officially publish its Defence Investment Plan (DIP) on or before July 6, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The UK Ministry of Defence or the Prime Minister's Office officially publishes the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) document on a UK government website (.gov.uk).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The UK government does not officially publish the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) document on a UK government website (.gov.uk) on or before July 6, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-defence\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-06T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:23.618Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4597,"completionTokens":577,"cost":0.011967615,"latencyMs":800,"rawSha256":"72f114128e4dbb083d4d88f0414503c5e71477f56cd7d972dae2f0f924338822","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the New York Knicks hold an official championship parade in New York City to celebrate their 2026 NBA title on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official public parade or ticker-tape parade is held in New York City by the New York Knicks organization and/or the City of New York to celebrate the team's 2026 NBA championship on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official public parade or ticker-tape parade is held in New York City to celebrate the 2026 NBA championship on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.nba.com/knicks\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.nytimes.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 NBA Finals outcome is legally overturned or vacated by the NBA prior to the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the San Antonio Spurs officially announce the signing of a new contract extension for head coach Mitch Johnson on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The San Antonio Spurs officially announce, or major sports news outlets (such as ESPN or NBA.com) confirm via team sources, that head coach Mitch Johnson has signed a contract extension with the team on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement or confirmation of a contract extension for head coach Mitch Johnson is made on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.nba.com/spurs\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.espn.com/nba/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Mitch Johnson is officially terminated or resigns from his position as head coach of the San Antonio Spurs prior to any extension announcement.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:27.115Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"5be27879-b6b4-4d4e-bd37-8c8629f80cd4","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4195,"completionTokens":510,"cost":0.010773675,"latencyMs":792,"rawSha256":"b310109769b35e370ce882311c0b3de888c8687892527c36f24dd04fb604f7d5","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Lille OSC announce the signing of any new player to its first-team squad between June 8, 2026, and June 25, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Lille OSC (LOSC) officially announces the signing, transfer, or loan-in of a new player to its first-team squad on its official website (losc.fr) or official social media channels during the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement of a new player signing is made by Lille OSC during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.losc.fr\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://twitter.com/losclive\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T23:59:59Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The club Lille OSC is legally dissolved or ceases operations before June 25, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Davide Ancelotti or Lille OSC announce a termination or modification of his contract before June 25, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Lille OSC or Davide Ancelotti officially announces that his contract as head coach has been terminated, mutually rescinded, or modified to a different role within the club.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of contract termination or modification is made, and Davide Ancelotti remains the designated head coach of Lille OSC.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.losc.fr\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lequipe.fr\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T23:59:59Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The club Lille OSC is legally dissolved or ceases operations before June 25, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:30.362Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":5312,"completionTokens":559,"cost":0.01286901,"latencyMs":1285,"rawSha256":"efe1001873d4c654b419447e4ed05aa9ffa4b605fb584877edd29702d271ac2f","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Toy Story 5 have a cumulative domestic box office gross of $150 million or more according to Box Office Mojo by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The cumulative domestic box office gross of Toy Story 5 is reported by Box Office Mojo as $150,000,000.00 or more.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The cumulative domestic box office gross of Toy Story 5 is reported by Box Office Mojo as less than $150,000,000.00, or no data is available.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.boxofficemojo.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.the-numbers.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"indicator-threshold\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": {\n \"theatrical_release_canceled\": \"The film Toy Story 5 is not theatrically released in the United States by July 10, 2026.\"\n },\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Toy Story 5 hold a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of 85% or higher on July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is 85% or higher.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is lower than 85%.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/toy_story_5\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/toy_story_5\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"indicator-threshold\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": {\n \"no_reviews_listed\": \"There are fewer than 20 critic reviews counted toward the Tomatometer score on the deadline date.\"\n },\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:34.506Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":2,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5312,"completionTokens":546,"cost":0.01275318,"latencyMs":827,"rawSha256":"985e3d03c950657c234ebd865a6ed5617e67e86b8e128478152fc1279a2bb661","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Toy Story 5 have a domestic opening weekend box office gross of $125 million or more, according to Box Office Mojo?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The domestic opening weekend box office gross for Toy Story 5 is reported by Box Office Mojo as $125,000,000.00 or more.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The domestic opening weekend box office gross for Toy Story 5 is reported by Box Office Mojo as less than $125,000,000.00, or the film does not have an opening weekend by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.boxofficemojo.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.the-numbers.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"publication\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The film's theatrical release is delayed beyond the deadline\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Toy Story 5 hold a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of 85% or higher on July 1, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is 85% or higher at any point on July 1, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is below 85% throughout July 1, 2026, or there is no score available.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/toy_story_5\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://web.archive.org (archived snapshots of the Rotten Tomatoes page from July 1, 2026)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"publication\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The film has fewer than 40 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes by the deadline\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:37.697Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"6f9f6672-a611-485d-abdf-a59da248a88d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3539,"completionTokens":721,"cost":0.011679525,"latencyMs":765,"rawSha256":"c3fd5e8684e976ac596cab964d2423fdcdd3f0cf97d680e62da63b1d84cc84b3","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Christie's or Sotheby's announce the consignment or upcoming auction of any original David Hockney painting with an estimated value of $10 million USD or more between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Christie's or Sotheby's officially announces, via a press release or their official website, the consignment or upcoming auction of an original painting by David Hockney with a low estimate of at least $10 million USD (or equivalent in other currencies) between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such announcement of a David Hockney painting consignment or auction with a low estimate of $10 million USD or more is made by Christie's or Sotheby's during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.christies.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.sothebys.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The official websites of both Christie's and Sotheby's are completely inaccessible during the entire period from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Tate Britain announce a dedicated retrospective or memorial exhibition for David Hockney to be held in 2026 or 2027, with the announcement occurring between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Tate Britain (or Tate overall) officially announces a new, dedicated retrospective or memorial exhibition of David Hockney's work scheduled to open in 2026 or 2027, with the announcement published on their official website or press room between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of a new dedicated David Hockney retrospective or memorial exhibition for 2026 or 2027 is published by Tate between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.tate.org.uk/press\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.tate.org.uk\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Tate official press website is permanently offline or inaccessible during the entire period from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:41.454Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"70ed847d-7575-4ab5-b580-081e250b3c71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":6392,"completionTokens":631,"cost":0.01511433,"latencyMs":1200,"rawSha256":"20df99bcda502803109dfdcd14cd906261f4b18b948e89bb53badce3307a2d62","raw":"[\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Lockheed Martin officially present the first F-35 fighter jet built for Germany on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Lockheed Martin, the German Ministry of Defence, or the German Luftwaffe officially presents, rolls out, or unveils the first completed F-35 fighter jet manufactured for Germany on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official presentation, rollout, or unveiling of the first German F-35 occurs on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news.html\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bmvg.de/de/presse\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The contract for Germany's F-35 acquisition is officially cancelled or terminated by either party before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Poland's Ministry of National Defence officially sign a contract to purchase additional F-35 fighter jets beyond the original 32 units between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Polish Ministry of National Defence (MON) or the Polish Armaments Agency officially signs a contract, agreement, or Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) to purchase one or more additional F-35 fighter jets (beyond the 32 units contracted in 2020) between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such contract or agreement for additional F-35 fighter jets is officially signed by Poland between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.pl/web/obrona-narodowa/aktualnosci\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.gov.pl/web/uzbrojenie\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Polish government undergoes a total dissolution or emergency suspension of defense procurement activities during the specified period.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n]","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:45.230Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":2,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"70ed847d-7575-4ab5-b580-081e250b3c71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6392,"completionTokens":624,"cost":0.0069728175,"latencyMs":782,"rawSha256":"5327be684d21aee1c98016a82f5c075570a6c57d0addc3432d55e9fd9085e575","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Lockheed Martin officially present the first F-35 fighter jet built for Germany by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official presentation, rollout ceremony, or public unveiling of the first F-35 fighter jet manufactured for the German Luftwaffe is formally conducted or officially announced by Lockheed Martin or the German Ministry of Defence to have occurred between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official presentation or rollout ceremony of Germany's first F-35 occurs or is officially announced to have occurred by July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news.html\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bmvg.de/de/aktuelles\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The F-35 program for Germany is officially canceled by the German government before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Poland officially sign a contract to purchase additional F-35 fighter jets beyond the original 32 units between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Polish Ministry of National Defence (MON) or the Polish government officially signs an agreement, contract, or Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) to procure one or more additional F-35 fighter jets beyond the 32 units ordered in the 2020 contract.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such contract or agreement for additional F-35 fighter jets is officially signed by Poland by July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.pl/web/obrona-narodowa/aktualnosci\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news.html\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Poland cancels its existing order of 32 F-35 fighter jets before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:48.958Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3724,"completionTokens":504,"cost":0.01002078,"latencyMs":1045,"rawSha256":"245eb4d2f40fbf7bedb06d313859fe0b461bda51c9addc3463e04a6c187f4fdc","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Marc Cucurella from Chelsea on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid officially announces the signing of Marc Cucurella from Chelsea on its official website (realmadrid.com) or verified social media accounts on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of the signing of Marc Cucurella is made by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.chelseafc.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Marc Cucurella dies or suffers a career-ending medical event before the announcement.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Bernardo Silva on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid officially announces the signing of Bernardo Silva on its official website (realmadrid.com) or verified social media accounts on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of the signing of Bernardo Silva is made by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.mancity.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Bernardo Silva dies or suffers a career-ending medical event before the announcement.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:35:51.989Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"7ecc993b-9da6-490f-bac2-2624cc163bb3","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3492,"completionTokens":517,"cost":0.00979209,"latencyMs":770,"rawSha256":"cebbc9fdc3e77121413aed3d1d03a3531900abe6dd6874dfd5b288a84823dc5f","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Germany win its opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Germany wins the match against Curacao scheduled for June 14, 2026, in regular time, extra time, or via penalty shootout.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The match ends in a draw, Curacao wins, or the match is not played by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.kicker.de\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match is postponed beyond June 15, 2026\",\n \"Germany does not play Curacao as its opening match of the tournament\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Manuel Neuer start as the goalkeeper for Germany in their opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Manuel Neuer is named in the starting lineup (starting XI) for Germany in their opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Manuel Neuer is not named in the starting lineup (e.g., he is on the bench, not in the squad, or Oliver Baumann or another goalkeeper starts), or the match is not played by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.kicker.de\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Germany's opening match of the tournament is postponed beyond June 15, 2026\",\n \"Germany does not play Curacao in its opening match of the tournament\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:38:51.747Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"7f66b995-1ef5-40eb-870b-7503272a1abd","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4317,"completionTokens":659,"cost":0.012282435,"latencyMs":1253,"rawSha256":"f45d51485dc81090ab5e256546346d337ebc0ada443dee77d285f7be3611478f","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Ismaël Koné be officially ruled out of the remainder of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by Canada Soccer or head coach Jesse Marsch on or before July 5, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Canada Soccer (the Canadian Soccer Association) or Canada's head coach Jesse Marsch officially announces or confirms in a public statement, press conference, or official injury update published on or before July 5, 2026, that Ismaël Koné is ruled out for the remainder of the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament due to his leg injury.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement or confirmation is made by Canada Soccer or Jesse Marsch on or before July 5, 2026, or they officially state he has a chance to return and play in a later stage of the 2026 tournament.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.canadasoccer.com/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, suspended, or postponed indefinitely before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Canada's men's national soccer team qualify for the Round of 16 (knockout stage) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Canada officially secures a spot in the Round of 16 (the knockout stage of 32 teams or 16 teams depending on tournament structure, specifically the first knockout round following the group stage) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, confirmed by official FIFA standings or match results on or before July 5, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Canada is mathematically eliminated during the group stage and fails to qualify for the first knockout round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, confirmed by official FIFA standings or match results on or before July 5, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.canadasoccer.com/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament is cancelled, abandoned, or suspended indefinitely before Canada's qualification status for the first knockout round is mathematically resolved.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:38:55.885Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"823927c0-465a-43b4-b494-52427de9bbe2","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4045,"completionTokens":497,"cost":0.010435095,"latencyMs":726,"rawSha256":"c2c1359199570866929ee862fa51d1b70e201c8d8827af9593365c2c6f5db435","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Switzerland win their second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Bosnia and Herzegovina?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Switzerland wins the match against Bosnia and Herzegovina, as recorded by official FIFA match statistics.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The match ends in a draw, Bosnia and Herzegovina wins, or the match is not completed by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.uefa.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match is postponed beyond July 10, 2026\",\n \"The match is abandoned and not officially resolved with a final score by FIFA\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Qatar advance to the Round of 32 (the knockout stage) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Qatar officially qualifies for the Round of 32 from Group B, either as one of the top two teams in the group or as one of the best third-placed teams.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Qatar is mathematically eliminated in the group stage and does not advance to the Round of 32.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.espn.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is not completed by July 10, 2026\",\n \"Qatar is disqualified from the tournament for non-sporting reasons before the group stage concludes\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:38:59.017Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"852c54bc-055e-467e-bc8e-e950db66ffa7","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3555,"completionTokens":592,"cost":0.010553895,"latencyMs":692,"rawSha256":"99a2f2ee94d5b85ff2a594499f9262cb4abb56eb0dac0d7dfb0ec9a91983d315","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Audiencia Provincial de Madrid or another Spanish appeals court officially lift or suspend the travel ban (prohibition to leave Spain) imposed on Begoña Gómez by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official ruling or order is issued by the Audiencia Provincial de Madrid, the Tribunal Supremo, or another competent Spanish appeals court on or before July 10, 2026, that formally revokes, lifts, or temporarily suspends the precautionary measure prohibiting Begoña Gómez from leaving Spain (including the return of her passport).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such ruling or order is issued by July 10, 2026, or any appeal against the measure is rejected, leaving the travel ban and passport confiscation active as of the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.poderjudicial.es\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The criminal case against Begoña Gómez is entirely dismissed or archived before the deadline, rendering the travel ban moot without a specific appellate ruling on the precautionary measure itself.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Pedro Sánchez resign or announce his resignation as Prime Minister (Presidente del Gobierno) of Spain between June 27, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Pedro Sánchez makes a public announcement or submits an official resignation stating that he is stepping down from his position as Prime Minister of Spain, occurring between June 27, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Pedro Sánchez does not resign or announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.rtve.es\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Pedro Sánchez becomes physically incapacitated or dies before any announcement of resignation is made.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:02.452Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"8681ac31-28fa-4d71-881f-b0d2219ef156","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3536,"completionTokens":535,"cost":0.01001781,"latencyMs":781,"rawSha256":"bf4782a8ca8f598e4f171a9b0ac371594138a4aaa54e389ec94926ec993b58d5","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Serena Williams and her partner win their first-round doubles match at the 2026 Queen's Club tournament?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Serena Williams and her partner win their first-round match in the women's doubles draw at the 2026 Queen's Club tournament, advancing to the second round (or quarterfinals, depending on the draw size) via a completed match, retirement, or walkover.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Serena Williams and her partner lose their first-round match, or Serena Williams withdraws from the doubles tournament prior to playing her first-round match.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lta.org.uk\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-21T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 Queen's Club women's doubles tournament is cancelled entirely.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Serena Williams play a singles match in the main draw of the 2026 Berlin Ladies Open?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Serena Williams plays at least one point in a singles match in the main draw of the 2026 Berlin Ladies Open (Ecotrans Ladies Open).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Serena Williams does not play any points in a main draw singles match at the 2026 Berlin Ladies Open (including if she only plays doubles, only plays in the qualifying rounds without reaching the main draw, or does not participate in the tournament at all).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.berlinladiesopen.de\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-22T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 Berlin Ladies Open tournament is cancelled entirely.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:05.583Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"881101ba-900c-416c-8fbb-2f072628b023","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3313,"completionTokens":694,"cost":0.011103345,"latencyMs":724,"rawSha256":"7faff950b62a7b4ed92fb0398fab6f6712516ca7fcf4160b90d7447c85403f0d","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Governor of Irkutsk Oblast officially announce that at least one crew member of the Tu-22M3 bomber that crashed on June 15, 2026, has died from their injuries?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Russian Ministry of Defense, the Governor of Irkutsk Oblast (Igor Kobzev), or another official Russian state authority announces between June 22, 2026, and July 10, 2026, that one or more crew members of the Tu-22M3 strategic bomber that crashed in Irkutsk on June 15, 2026, has died as a result of the crash or subsequent injuries.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement of a crew member's death from this crash is made by the specified authorities by 23:59:00 UTC on July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://t.me/gubernator_kobzev\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://tass.ru/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"It is officially confirmed before June 22, 2026, that a crew member has died.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Russia's Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC/MAK) or the Russian Ministry of Defense release an official preliminary or final investigation report attributing the June 15, 2026, Irkutsk Tu-22M3 crash to technical failure?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC/MAK) or the Russian Ministry of Defense publishes an official statement or report between June 22, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly stating that a technical malfunction or technical failure (such as engine failure) was the cause or a primary contributing factor of the June 15, 2026, Tu-22M3 crash in Irkutsk.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official statement or report from these bodies attributing the crash to technical failure is published by 23:59:00 UTC on July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://tass.ru/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://mak-iac.org/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"An official report or statement attributing the crash to technical failure is published before June 22, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:09.781Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3161,"completionTokens":594,"cost":0.009986625,"latencyMs":778,"rawSha256":"1de9d3abc92411395b77948831d69a42bbe8e5f182d87cd84443a3cf57f174f0","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Spanish Congress of Deputies approve a motion or amendment formally urging Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to dissolve the Cortes Generales and call general elections during the plenary session scheduled for the week of June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Spanish Congress of Deputies votes in favor of and approves a motion, or a motion as amended (such as the PP motion with Junts' or PP's amendment), that explicitly calls on, urges, or demands that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolve the Cortes Generales and/or call general elections.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Spanish Congress of Deputies votes on the motion and its amendments but fails to approve any text urging the dissolution of the Cortes Generales or the calling of general elections, or the vote on such a motion/amendment does not take place during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.congreso.es\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The plenary session of the Congress of Deputies scheduled for the week of June 15, 2026, is suspended or canceled entirely without any votes taking place.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez officially announce the dissolution of the Cortes Generales and the calling of early general elections on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez makes an official public announcement, or the Spanish government officially publishes a decree in the Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE), dissolving the Cortes Generales and calling for early general elections.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement or decree dissolving the Cortes Generales and calling early general elections is made by Pedro Sánchez or published in the BOE on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.boe.es\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Pedro Sánchez ceases to be the Prime Minister of Spain before any such announcement is made.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:13.455Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"95d2ad2e-b9c7-46fd-bbb5-7203029fcb6e","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4243,"completionTokens":506,"cost":0.010809315,"latencyMs":839,"rawSha256":"3e07b7e36c2974748aa3a5920143ccf1744c213923514d63c391e28e8d12f12c","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Florentino Pérez win the Real Madrid presidential election scheduled for June 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Florentino Pérez is officially declared the winner of the Real Madrid presidential election held on June 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Enrique Riquelme is officially declared the winner of the Real Madrid presidential election held on June 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T20:32:00\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The election scheduled for June 7, 2026, is postponed beyond June 15, 2026, or cancelled entirely.\",\n \"Neither Florentino Pérez nor Enrique Riquelme is declared the winner.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of José Mourinho as their first-team head coach by June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid Club de Fútbol officially announces that José Mourinho has signed or agreed to sign as their first-team head coach.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Real Madrid Club de Fútbol does not officially announce that José Mourinho has signed or agreed to sign as their first-team head coach.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T20:32:00\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Real Madrid presidential election scheduled for June 7, 2026, is cancelled or postponed beyond June 15, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:16.380Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a3b18489-03ca-4b7b-8495-3a8f564e2e3c","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4378,"completionTokens":700,"cost":0.01273833,"latencyMs":833,"rawSha256":"1fd640eeeb3e846dfc6d3c1cd6394ae94777a8e324beeea8855a4d6b54954ba4","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol formally file an appeal against his 30-year prison sentence in the drone-flight case by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A formal appeal is filed by Yoon Suk Yeol or his legal defense team against the June 12, 2026, Seoul Central District Court ruling (which sentenced him to 30 years in prison for the drone operation) with the appropriate South Korean appellate court, as reported by major news agencies (e.g., Yonhap, AP, Reuters).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No formal appeal is filed by Yoon Suk Yeol or his legal defense team against this specific 30-year sentence by the deadline, or the deadline passes without any public confirmation of such an appeal.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://en.yna.co.kr/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.apnews.com/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Yoon Suk Yeol dies before an appeal is filed or before the deadline.\",\n \"The June 12, 2026, court ruling is completely vacated or annulled by an extraordinary government action before an appeal can be filed.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will former South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun formally file an appeal against his 30-year prison sentence in the drone-flight case by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A formal appeal is filed by Kim Yong-hyun or his legal defense team against the June 12, 2026, Seoul Central District Court ruling (which sentenced him to 30 years in prison for his role in the drone operation) with the appropriate South Korean appellate court, as reported by major news agencies (e.g., Yonhap, AP, Reuters).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No formal appeal is filed by Kim Yong-hyun or his legal defense team against this specific 30-year sentence by the deadline, or the deadline passes without any public confirmation of such an appeal.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://en.yna.co.kr/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.apnews.com/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Kim Yong-hyun dies before an appeal is filed or before the deadline.\",\n \"The June 12, 2026, court ruling against Kim Yong-hyun is completely vacated or annulled by an extraordinary government action before an appeal can be filed.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:20.017Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3692,"completionTokens":544,"cost":0.01032966,"latencyMs":782,"rawSha256":"7170465aec170816cb90b5e47da8aac31027cf36de28158d8b30b052ccda669a","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the UK Government officially release a formal public report or statement confirming that the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich fired warning shots at a British-registered yacht in the English Channel?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), the UK Government (gov.uk), or an official spokesperson thereof publishes a formal statement, press release, or investigation report explicitly confirming that the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich (or a Russian warship) fired warning shots (or warning fire) at a British-registered yacht in the English Channel on June 16, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The UK Ministry of Defence or the UK Government does not issue such a formal confirmation, or officially concludes that no warning shots were fired by the Russian vessel.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-defence\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The UK Ministry of Defence or UK Government website is completely inaccessible during the entire resolution window.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the captain of the seized tanker MV Smyrtos, Ajay Pant, be granted bail by an English court?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An English court officially grants bail to Ajay Pant, allowing him to be released from custody pending trial.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Ajay Pant is denied bail, remains remanded in custody, or no bail decision is reached by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"All criminal charges against Ajay Pant are completely dropped or dismissed before a bail decision is made.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:23.456Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3619,"completionTokens":528,"cost":0.010078695,"latencyMs":714,"rawSha256":"348dc367c2787cc76079f83836747269ef95017e2dd3670c36e86624fbdfd83a","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement to formally end the war or extend the ceasefire between June 12, 2026, and July 5, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement, treaty, or formal accord that extends the ceasefire or formally ends the war, as officially announced by the US Department of State, the White House, or the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such bilateral agreement is signed by both parties during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.state.gov\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:37:56Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The United States and Iran are not the primary signatories to the agreement.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the United States military (CENTCOM) announce any strikes on Iranian territory or Iranian-controlled islands between June 12, 2026, and July 5, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"US Central Command (CENTCOM) or the US Department of Defense issues an official statement confirming that US forces conducted military strikes on targets located within Iran's sovereign territory or on Iranian-controlled islands (such as Qeshm Island).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official statement confirming US military strikes on Iranian territory or Iranian-controlled islands is issued by CENTCOM or the US Department of Defense during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.centcom.mil\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.defense.gov\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:37:56Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The US military does not release any operational updates during this period due to a government shutdown.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:26.553Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5929,"completionTokens":650,"cost":0.014596065,"latencyMs":1051,"rawSha256":"36f297bc7951237097c1dfeb308dd814bbb401e8bfaf22245e129ef092ee8dbe","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Spain's Ministry of Inclusion, Security, and Migration report that the total number of social security affiliates (afiliados a la Seguridad Social) in June 2026 exceeds 22.45 million?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official monthly employment data released by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Security, and Migration (or the official statistical release) for the month of June 2026 reports that the average number of social security affiliates (afiliación media) is strictly greater than 22,450,000.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official monthly employment data released by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Security, and Migration (or the official statistical release) for the month of June 2026 reports that the average number of social security affiliates (afiliación media) is 22,450,000 or fewer.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.inclusion.gob.es/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.sepe.es/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T07:12:21Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Ministry of Inclusion, Security, and Migration does not release the official June 2026 employment and affiliation data by July 2, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the registered unemployment (paro registrado) in Spain for June 2026 fall below 2.25 million people?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official monthly unemployment data released by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy (SEPE) for June 2026 reports that the total number of registered unemployed people (paro registrado) is strictly less than 2,250,000.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official monthly unemployment data released by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy (SEPE) for June 2026 reports that the total number of registered unemployed people (paro registrado) is 2,250,000 or more.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.sepe.es/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.inclusion.gob.es/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T07:12:21Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Ministry of Labor and Social Economy does not release the official June 2026 registered unemployment data by July 2, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:30.419Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"ad263723-c083-4fef-bc86-ea94a845100b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3431,"completionTokens":628,"cost":0.010690515,"latencyMs":692,"rawSha256":"d29111085decb1a859cad8ec7a6d5fe0f22c611ea8308aa60a0e518500fe98d2","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Miguel Almirón play in Paraguay's final World Cup 2026 Group D match against Australia?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Miguel Almirón is officially recorded as having played (either as a starter or coming on as a substitute) in Paraguay's World Cup 2026 Group D match against Australia.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Miguel Almirón does not play in Paraguay's World Cup 2026 Group D match against Australia (including if he is suspended, remains on the bench, is not in the squad, or if the match is postponed beyond the deadline).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-27T04:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"The match is scheduled for June 26, 2026 (local time). If the match is postponed, the question will remain open until the deadline of June 27, 2026, at 04:00 UTC.\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match between Paraguay and Australia is cancelled or postponed beyond June 27, 2026, at 04:00 UTC.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will FIFA officially rescind or overturn Miguel Almirón's red card suspension before Paraguay's match against Australia?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"FIFA's Disciplinary Committee or an official FIFA appeals body formally rescinds or overturns the red card shown to Miguel Almirón against Turkey, explicitly clearing him of the automatic suspension for the next match.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"FIFA does not officially rescind or overturn the red card suspension before the kickoff of Paraguay's match against Australia (meaning the suspension stands or is upheld).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-27T04:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"The resolution must occur before the scheduled kickoff of Paraguay's match against Australia on June 26, 2026 (local time).\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Paraguay's match against Australia is cancelled or postponed beyond June 27, 2026, at 04:00 UTC.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:33.771Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"b0699fe8-e4ca-4a5b-bb84-133cfb33fcff","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4623,"completionTokens":549,"cost":0.011756745,"latencyMs":820,"rawSha256":"b8782931ce895c927917e91b52d99711b9f8377fafc2e0e91cdc22fab77055bf","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the United States and Iran sign a formal peace agreement or capitulation treaty to end their war by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A formal peace agreement, treaty, or capitulation document ending the war between the United States and Iran is officially signed by authorized representatives of both nations on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such formal peace agreement or capitulation document is signed by both nations on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.apnews.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Kevin Warsh deliver a public speech or hold a press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Kevin Warsh, in his official capacity as Chair of the Federal Reserve, delivers a public speech, participates in a public Q&A session, or hosts a press conference that is broadcast or transcribed publicly between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Kevin Warsh does not deliver any public speech, participate in a public Q&A, or host a press conference in his official capacity as Chair of the Federal Reserve during this period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bloomberg.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Kevin Warsh officially resigns or is removed from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:37.039Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"b5d8bf44-cd6e-47bd-b071-907f2174391d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4152,"completionTokens":507,"cost":0.01068309,"latencyMs":734,"rawSha256":"cd18213c07f5712e080a8d0b7528d31ba30f8821c842f1453b0e02126dfb4da3","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Thai government declare a period of national mourning of at least 15 days following the death of Princess Bajrakitiyabha?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Thai government or the Royal Household Bureau officially declares a period of national mourning of 15 days or more (inclusive) following the death of Princess Bajrakitiyabha.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official period of national mourning declared by the Thai government is less than 15 days, or no official period of national mourning is declared by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.thaigov.go.th\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Thai government does not release any official statement regarding a mourning period by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will King Maha Vajiralongkorn of Thailand officially name a Crown Prince or Crown Princess as his successor by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Royal Household Bureau or the Royal Gazette of Thailand officially announces that King Maha Vajiralongkorn has designated a specific individual as the heir apparent (Crown Prince or Crown Princess) to the throne.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement designating a specific heir apparent is made by the Royal Household Bureau or published in the Royal Gazette of Thailand.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.ratchakitcha.soc.go.th\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"King Maha Vajiralongkorn abdicates or dies before an heir is named.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:40.185Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"c34f9464-a311-46ff-a258-356355a987cf","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4680,"completionTokens":596,"cost":0.01226016,"latencyMs":736,"rawSha256":"f6d9294218a7a9c8493a442518ff3d27518aa178060805f8be8755d524d7133c","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Iran and the United States resume direct or mediated official diplomatic negotiations to end their conflict between June 8, 2026, and June 30, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Any official statement from the government of Iran (such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs), the United States (such as the State Department or White House), or official mediating nations (such as Pakistan) confirming that Iran and the US have resumed exchanging messages, texts, or holding talks through mediators or directly to negotiate a peace agreement or ceasefire.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official confirmation of the resumption of negotiations is made public during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.apnews.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The conflict between the US and Iran is fully resolved by a signed treaty prior to June 8, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Strait of Hormuz be officially reported as completely blocked or closed to commercial maritime traffic at any point between June 8, 2026, and June 30, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Reports from major international news agencies or maritime security organizations (such as the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations - UKMTO, or the US Energy Information Administration) confirming that transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been completely blocked, closed, or halted due to military action, mining, or physical blockades by Iran or its allies.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official report of a complete closure or blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is published during the specified period, even if shipping is disrupted or attacked.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bloomberg.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Strait of Hormuz is already completely closed and remains closed continuously from June 1, 2026, through June 8, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:44.104Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"cacbbdf5-cdfe-4fd5-b32e-2869810c6dce","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4544,"completionTokens":513,"cost":0.01131867,"latencyMs":733,"rawSha256":"052b2ed2fd752b735ae567e54e722a1bade3871f3b33005d8a1832cbea125912","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Alexander Zverev be ranked in the top 2 of the ATP singles rankings published between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official ATP singles rankings published on any date within the specified timeframe list Alexander Zverev as number 1 or number 2.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official ATP singles rankings published on all dates within the specified timeframe list Alexander Zverev as number 3 or lower.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com/rankings/singles\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T17:54:50Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No official ATP singles rankings are published during the specified timeframe.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Flavio Cobolli win an ATP Tour singles title at an event concluding between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Flavio Cobolli wins a singles tournament on the official ATP Tour (including ATP 250, 500, Masters 1000, or Grand Slam events) that concludes within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Flavio Cobolli does not win any ATP Tour singles tournament concluding within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/results\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.flashscore.com/tennis/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T17:54:50Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No ATP Tour singles tournaments are completed during the specified timeframe.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:47.216Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"ccdd5a0b-2814-4c6a-8c75-19a30a756b95","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3126,"completionTokens":670,"cost":0.01061181,"latencyMs":782,"rawSha256":"dffca2002267d07cc822351a83cbc29c3ea05d8e220aecec999e7539e0ca1653","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Meta Platforms, Inc. issue an official press release or blog post attributing the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or DDoS attack by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Meta Platforms, Inc. publishes an official statement, press release, or blog post on its official newsroom (about.fb.com/news) or status page (metastatus.com) between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly stating that the service outage on June 12, 2026, was caused by a cyberattack, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, or malicious external intrusion.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Meta Platforms, Inc. does not publish any such statement by July 10, 2026, or publishes a statement attributing the outage solely to internal technical errors, configuration changes, or routine maintenance.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://about.fb.com/news/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://metastatus.com/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Meta Platforms, Inc. goes out of business or its newsroom website is permanently inaccessible during the resolution window.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announce an official investigation into the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The FCC releases an official press release, public notice, or statement on its official website (fcc.gov) between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, announcing that it has launched or is launching an investigation or formal inquiry into the Meta Platforms outage that occurred on June 12, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The FCC does not release any official statement announcing a formal investigation or inquiry into the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fcc.gov/news-events/press-releases\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.fcc.gov/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The FCC is dissolved or its official website is permanently offline during the resolution window.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:51.043Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"cf1415d8-df12-4397-8000-466b2059c81d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3819,"completionTokens":583,"cost":0.010865745,"latencyMs":853,"rawSha256":"9b52ae9ae666c9fdd084fd54efd4760f4d9bdfb5665d884c3ef32f885a70dc40","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Kaja Kallas issue a public retraction, clarification, or denial regarding her reported comments comparing Israel to apartheid-era South Africa by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, or her official spokesperson, issues a public statement, press release, or social media post that explicitly denies, retracts, or clarifies her reported remarks comparing Israel to apartheid-era South Africa.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such public statement, press release, or social media post is issued by Kaja Kallas or her official spokesperson.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/high-representative-vice-president_en\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Kaja Kallas is no longer the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy on or before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas hold an official bilateral meeting or phone call between June 25, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the European External Action Service, or major international news outlets confirm that Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas held an official bilateral meeting or phone call.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official bilateral meeting or phone call between Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas is confirmed to have taken place during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.il/en/departments/ministry_of_foreign_affairs\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Either Gideon Sa'ar or Kaja Kallas permanently leaves their respective office before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:54.587Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"d31fd042-542f-42c1-ac33-2b17ff92ba96","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3585,"completionTokens":570,"cost":0.010402425,"latencyMs":794,"rawSha256":"59d9b6f637b21d9f5f2f945540f6f0c6ab83ce5d05f331c01da6e0b4f459de53","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Denzel Dumfries by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF officially announces the signing of Denzel Dumfries on its official website (realmadrid.com) or verified social media channels on or before July 10, 2026, 23:59 UTC.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF does not officially announce the signing of Denzel Dumfries on or before July 10, 2026, 23:59 UTC.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.marca.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Denzel Dumfries retires from professional football before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Ibrahima Konaté play in any match for France at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Ibrahima Konaté enters the pitch (either as a starter or a substitute) during an official 2026 FIFA World Cup match for France that takes place on or before July 10, 2026, 23:59 UTC.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"France plays matches during the 2026 FIFA World Cup on or before July 10, 2026, but Ibrahima Konaté does not enter the pitch in any of them, or France plays no matches in this period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lequipe.fr\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, suspended, or postponed beyond July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:39:57.665Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3700,"completionTokens":587,"cost":0.01072467,"latencyMs":862,"rawSha256":"fd166922cd4408b059e2c1e3074dc178cd05cd9c5db03acd8a893e8f05966611","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Armand Duplantis win his next official pole vault competition held on or after June 14, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Armand Duplantis places first (including tied for first) in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Armand Duplantis competes in but does not place first in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://worldathletics.org/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.diamondleague.com/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T16:36:03Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Armand Duplantis does not compete in any official World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Kimi Antonelli win the next Formula One Grand Prix held on or after June 14, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Kimi Antonelli is officially declared the winner of the first Formula One Grand Prix race that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Kimi Antonelli is not officially declared the winner of the first Formula One Grand Prix race that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.formula1.com/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.fia.com/\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T16:36:03Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No Formula One Grand Prix race is completed between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:40:01.158Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"e8c18ab5-8b53-4d81-97ad-d854d2a72bc4","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3326,"completionTokens":600,"cost":0.01028511,"latencyMs":831,"rawSha256":"71ec555156cb1d1cb0dbe1f4b682b74f0a9f9d0986355052ab8b5ba8195b6b0e","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the European Union formally open the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine at an intergovernmental conference on June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official intergovernmental conference between the EU and Ukraine is held on June 15, 2026, and formally opens the first cluster of accession negotiations (the \\\"Fundamentals\\\" cluster), as announced by the Council of the European Union or the European Commission.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such intergovernmental conference is held on June 15, 2026, or the conference is held but fails to formally open the first cluster of accession negotiations on that date.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-16T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The scheduled intergovernmental conference is officially postponed or canceled prior to June 15, 2026, due to unforeseen security emergencies in Brussels or Luxembourg.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the European Union formally open a second thematic cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine on or before June 30, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Council of the European Union or the European Commission officially announces that a second thematic cluster of accession negotiations (any cluster other than the \\\"Fundamentals\\\" cluster) has been formally opened with Ukraine on or before June 30, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The European Union does not formally open any additional thematic cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine beyond the first cluster on or before June 30, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-01T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Ukraine formally withdraws its application for EU membership before June 30, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:40:04.999Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"f18572bf-525b-4a2f-bb52-3468149a1280","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4638,"completionTokens":537,"cost":0.0116721,"latencyMs":1010,"rawSha256":"7326e258670faf063e449cbbe332bee4d15155714cc80875cd8275b73c8778e9","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Serena Williams be awarded a wild card entry into the women's singles main draw at Wimbledon 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official Wimbledon tournament organizers or the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club (AELTC) officially announce that Serena Williams has been awarded a wild card entry into the women's singles main draw for the 2026 Wimbledon Championships.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The final women's singles wild card spot is officially awarded to another player, or the tournament begins its main draw matches without Serena Williams receiving a singles wild card.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wimbledon.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-29T10:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 Wimbledon tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Venus Williams win her first-round singles match at the 2026 Bad Homburg Open?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Venus Williams wins her first-round singles match (either by completing the match, or via opponent retirement/default after the match has officially started) at the 2026 Bad Homburg Open.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Venus Williams loses her first-round singles match at the 2026 Bad Homburg Open, or she withdraws from the singles tournament before her first-round match begins (walkover).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://badhomburg-open.de\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Venus Williams does not enter the singles draw of the 2026 Bad Homburg Open, or the tournament is cancelled.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:40:09.918Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":3290,"completionTokens":646,"cost":0.01064151,"latencyMs":1022,"rawSha256":"2873441808230ad3a3364b7a1317450c6aea125fa43f554b9a18c340a24ff316","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Russian government issue an official diplomatic protest or statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MID) condemning the interception of the Smyrtos by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MID) or an official Kremlin spokesperson issues a formal statement, press release, or diplomatic note between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly condemning, protesting, or declaring illegal the UK's interception, boarding, or detention of the vessel Smyrtos.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official statement or diplomatic protest is issued by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Kremlin spokesperson within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mid.ru/en/\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": \"The vessel Smyrtos is publicly proven and officially acknowledged by the UK government before June 21, 2026, to not have been associated with Russia or its shadow fleet.\",\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the UK National Crime Agency (NCA) or the Ministry of Defence announce formal criminal charges or a civil forfeiture lawsuit against the owners, operators, or crew of the Smyrtos by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The UK National Crime Agency (NCA), the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), or the Ministry of Defence officially announces the filing of criminal charges or a civil asset forfeiture lawsuit in a UK court against the vessel Smyrtos, its owners, operators, or crew members, between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of criminal charges or civil forfeiture lawsuits against the vessel, its owners, operators, or crew is made by the relevant UK authorities within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-defence\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": \"The vessel Smyrtos is released from UK custody and allowed to resume its voyage prior to June 21, 2026.\",\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T09:40:15.954Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":2,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3290,"completionTokens":651,"cost":0.01068606,"latencyMs":938,"rawSha256":"d030c7db9a542c55ea86fe0daea4be91d325ae4c6d3691c5d6060f2c22637f30","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Russian government issue an official diplomatic protest or statement through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MID) condemning the UK's interception of the vessel Smyrtos by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (MID) publishes an official statement, press release, or transcript of a briefing on mid.ru between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, that explicitly condemns, protests, or declares illegal the UK's interception, boarding, or detention of the vessel Smyrtos.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official statement, press release, or briefing transcript is published on mid.ru by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mid.ru\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.tass.com\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The vessel Smyrtos is officially confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defence before June 21, 2026, to not have been associated with Russia or its shadow fleet.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the National Crime Agency announce the formal arrest or seizure of the vessel Smyrtos under UK domestic law by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), the National Crime Agency (NCA), or the UK Government (gov.uk) issues an official press release or statement between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, announcing that the vessel Smyrtos has been formally arrested, permanently seized, or confiscated under UK domestic law or court order (beyond the initial provisional detention/monitoring announced on June 14, 2026).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of formal arrest, permanent seizure, or confiscation of the vessel Smyrtos is published by the UK government by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"none\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The vessel Smyrtos sinks, is destroyed, or is lost at sea before a formal arrest or seizure announcement can be made.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:58:24.580Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4386,"completionTokens":696,"cost":0.01271457,"latencyMs":1396,"rawSha256":"efc1ae9f21640a078a62d5a21d7137ed6762daabeb0720682e2721324a70735f","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Christian Eriksen release an official statement announcing his retirement from professional football on or before July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official statement is published by Christian Eriksen, his agent, his club VfL Wolfsburg, or the Danish Football Association (DBU) explicitly announcing that Christian Eriksen is retiring from playing professional football.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement of his retirement from professional football is made by July 7, 2026, or he explicitly states he intends to continue playing.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.dbu.dk/ (Read the official news section and press releases to see if a retirement announcement for Christian Eriksen is published)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.vfl-wolfsburg.de/ (Read the official club news and press releases to see if a retirement announcement for Christian Eriksen is published)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T18:27:53Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T18:27:53Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player dies before any announcement is made\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Danish Football Association (DBU) announce a rescheduled date or a final official result/status for the abandoned June 7, 2026 Denmark vs. Ukraine friendly match by July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Danish Football Association (DBU) or UEFA publishes an official statement declaring either a rescheduled date to replay/resume the match, or an official final result (such as declaring the 2-1 scoreline final, declaring it a void match, or declaring a walkover).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official decision or final status regarding the outcome or rescheduling of the abandoned June 7, 2026 match is announced by the DBU or UEFA by July 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.dbu.dk/ (Read the official news and match center updates regarding the June 7, 2026 Denmark vs. Ukraine friendly match)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.uefa.com/ (Search the official match center or news for the Denmark vs. Ukraine friendly match on June 7, 2026 to find its official final status or rescheduling decision)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T18:27:53Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T18:27:53Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match is completely ignored in official records with no statement or status update whatsoever\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:58:29.624Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"0ec59700-63a9-480c-976c-0bf803bc2d90","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3502,"completionTokens":909,"cost":0.01329966,"latencyMs":1388,"rawSha256":"9e775ca99487b20914a15915d76cf137a7f0c1f446b6a61760c01390bfdef01a","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announce an increase in the federal funds rate at its June 2026 meeting?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate (e.g., to a range higher than the pre-meeting target range) in its official monetary policy statement released during its June 16-17, 2026 meeting.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Federal Reserve announces that it is maintaining or lowering the target range for the federal funds rate in its official monetary policy statement released during its June 16-17, 2026 meeting.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm (Read the official FOMC statement/press release issued for the June 16-17, 2026 meeting. If the statement indicates that the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate, resolve to YES. If it maintains or lowers the rate, resolve to NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bloomberg.com (Search for news coverage of the Federal Reserve's June 17, 2026 interest rate decision. If major financial news outlets report that the Fed raised interest rates, resolve to YES; if they report the Fed held rates steady or cut them, resolve to NO.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-18T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-18T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 is cancelled, postponed beyond June 25, 2026, or does not release a policy decision statement by June 25, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the US be $4.25 or higher on June 22, 2026, according to the AAA Gas Prices report?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The AAA national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is recorded as $4.250 or higher on June 22, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The AAA national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is recorded as strictly less than $4.250 on June 22, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://gasprices.aaa.com/ (Read the 'National Average' price for 'Regular' gasoline on the main dashboard as of June 22, 2026. If the price is $4.250 or higher, resolve to YES. If it is lower than $4.250, resolve to NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://gasprices.aaa.com/ (Retrieve the archived snapshot of the AAA Gas Prices homepage for June 22, 2026, and read the National Average price for Regular gasoline to determine if it is $4.250 or higher.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-23T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"indicator-threshold\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-23T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"AAA does not publish national average gas price data for June 22, 2026, and no archived version of the page for that date is available by June 30, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:58:35.635Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"12aa1a06-cdb4-4e1f-85be-716d640d6fc8","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5001,"completionTokens":715,"cost":0.013797135,"latencyMs":1291,"rawSha256":"d58cbe852d69ae02b3d0e273f79dba6289c45d40936009d83508781ee9a6af00","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Russia and the United States sign an agreement to plan a tunnel between Chukotka and Alaska by June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A bilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding, or official planning contract regarding the construction or planning of a tunnel connecting Chukotka (Russia) and Alaska (United States) is signed by authorized representatives of both nations between June 4, 2026, and June 15, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such agreement is signed by June 15, 2026, or the planned signing is officially canceled or postponed beyond this date.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.kommersant.ru/\\nRead the latest news and search for articles containing 'Тоннель' (Tunnel), 'Чукотка' (Chukotka), 'Аляска' (Alaska), and 'Дмитриев' (Dmitriev) to verify if the planning agreement was signed.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/\\nSearch for 'Russia US tunnel Chukotka Alaska' to confirm if an agreement was signed.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T23:59:59Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-18T19:30:36Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Russian or US government officially declares the reports of a planned tunnel agreement to be a complete fabrication or hoax prior to the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet in person for bilateral talks between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin hold an in-person, face-to-face meeting to discuss the conflict or bilateral relations, occurring in any country, between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No in-person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin takes place during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/\\nMonitor the main news feed and search for 'Zelensky' and 'Putin' to verify if an in-person meeting occurred.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.apnews.com/\\nSearch for 'Zelensky Putin meeting' to confirm if an in-person meeting took place.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-04T19:30:36Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-04T19:30:36Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Either individual ceases to hold their respective presidential office prior to a meeting taking place.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:58:40.622Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3233,"completionTokens":831,"cost":0.012205215,"latencyMs":746,"rawSha256":"bddfc2639992bc986ce1bf3e0d25ba565bc1b72fdedac0f5e5e5842861113565","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Latvia's Ministry of Defense or National Armed Forces officially identify the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, as being of Russian manufacture or ownership by July 8, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ministry of Defense of Latvia (mod.gov.lv) or the Latvian National Armed Forces (mil.lv) publishes an official statement, press release, or social media post on their verified accounts explicitly identifying the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, as being of Russian manufacture, origin, or ownership.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official statement or press release is published by Latvia's Ministry of Defense or National Armed Forces by the deadline, or they officially attribute the drone to a country other than Russia (such as Ukraine or Belarus).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mod.gov.lv/en/news (Read the official news releases published between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026, to see if they explicitly state that the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, was Russian.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.mil.lv/en (Read the official news and press releases of the Latvian National Armed Forces published between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026, to see if they explicitly state that the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, was Russian.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-08T07:35:01Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-08T07:35:01Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Latvian Ministry of Defense or National Armed Forces officially states before the deadline that no drone was actually shot down on June 8, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will NATO or the Latvian National Armed Forces officially report another drone shootdown within Latvian airspace between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ministry of Defense of Latvia, the Latvian National Armed Forces, or NATO's official press office issues an official statement confirming that allied fighter jets or ground-based air defense systems successfully shot down or intercepted another drone inside Latvian airspace during the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official statement confirming another drone shootdown or interception in Latvian airspace is published by these authorities during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mil.lv/en (Read the official news releases published between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026, to determine if another drone shootdown in Latvian airspace is confirmed.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news.htm (Read the official NATO news releases published between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026, to determine if another drone shootdown in Latvian airspace is confirmed.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-08T07:35:01Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-08T07:35:01Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:58:45.163Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":4008,"completionTokens":902,"cost":0.0139887,"latencyMs":826,"rawSha256":"7ae9cae407f369721513b4a30f676d1a220232332966b05a0a00fe96f9e24833","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Council of the European Union (Minister Council) formally approve the EU-US tariff agreement on or before July 3, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Council of the European Union formally adopts, approves, or signs off on the regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement (such as the elimination of tariffs on US industrial goods and lobster imports approved by the European Parliament on June 16, 2026) on or before July 3, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Council of the European Union does not formally adopt or approve the regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement on or before July 3, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/ \\nRead the official press releases published by the Council of the European Union between June 16, 2026, and July 3, 2026. If a press release confirms that the Council has formally adopted or approved the regulations implementing the tariff agreement with the US, resolve to YES. Otherwise, resolve to NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.politico.eu/ \\nSearch Politico Europe for reports on the EU-US tariff deal's final approval by the EU member states/Council. If they report that the Council formally approved the deal on or before July 3, 2026, resolve to YES; otherwise, resolve to NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-03T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-03T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": \"The EU-US trade agreement is officially canceled or declared void by mutual agreement of both parties before July 3, 2026.\",\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the EU-US tariff agreement regulations be published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The legislative acts/regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement (eliminating tariffs on US industrial goods and/or lobster imports) are published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The legislative acts/regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement are not published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/oj/direct-access.html \\nSearch the Official Journal of the European Union for regulations published between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026, concerning the import of US industrial goods, agricultural products, or lobster. If such regulations are published on or before July 10, 2026, resolve to YES. Otherwise, resolve to NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm \\nCheck the European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade news database. If they officially announce that the regulations have entered into force or been published in the Official Journal on or before July 10, 2026, resolve to YES; otherwise, resolve to NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": \"The European Union officially abandons the legislative process for the tariff agreement before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:58:50.366Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":2,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4008,"completionTokens":832,"cost":0.008029692,"latencyMs":757,"rawSha256":"1650bb5ab660f3c0f2b66a6ed35ffa11d529b34a99202c3cfe91e1432c024c57","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Council of the European Union formally adopt or approve the regulations implementing the EU-US trade agreement on or before July 3, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Council of the European Union (also known as the Council of Ministers) formally adopts, approves, or gives its final rubber stamp to the regulations implementing the EU-US tariff/trade agreement (as approved by the European Parliament on June 16, 2026) on or before July 3, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Council of the European Union does not formally adopt or approve the regulations implementing the EU-US trade agreement on or before July 3, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/ (Read the official press releases page of the Council of the EU to see if a press release confirms the formal adoption or approval of the EU-US trade/tariff regulations on or before July 3, 2026.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/oj/direct-access.html (Check the Official Journal of the European Union for the publication of the adopted regulations, verifying if the signature/adoption date by the Council is on or before July 3, 2026.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-03T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-05T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The trade agreement is officially declared void or canceled by both parties before the Council can vote.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the EU-US trade agreement regulations approved by the European Parliament on June 16, 2026, be published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement (specifically the main regulation eliminating tariffs on US industrial goods and/or the regulation extending duty-free imports of US lobster) are published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement are published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/oj/direct-access.html (Search the Official Journal of the European Union for published regulations concerning the elimination of customs duties on US industrial products or lobster imports published between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en (Check the European Commission's official press corner for announcements confirming the publication of the regulations in the Official Journal.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The European Union officially announces that the trade agreement has been completely abandoned or renegotiated from scratch, rendering the June 16 parliamentary vote irrelevant.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:58:55.216Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"2110b2c3-6d5b-42aa-9a33-1d1a556663c3","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4912,"completionTokens":777,"cost":0.01421739,"latencyMs":875,"rawSha256":"c24aea9c872eea267cc0f260d979cc99173113f5a47d9e989a481ae107465f43","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the official funeral mass for Cardinal Camillo Ruini be celebrated at the Papal Basilica of Saint John Lateran (San Giovanni in Laterano) in Rome?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official funeral mass for Cardinal Camillo Ruini is celebrated at the Papal Basilica of Saint John Lateran (San Giovanni in Laterano) in Rome.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official funeral mass for Cardinal Camillo Ruini is celebrated at a different location (such as St. Peter's Basilica or a church in Sassuolo/Reggio Emilia), or no public funeral mass is held.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.vaticannews.va/it.html\\nRead the official announcements or reports regarding the location of Cardinal Camillo Ruini's funeral mass. If the main funeral mass is explicitly stated to be held at the Basilica of San Giovanni in Laterano, resolve YES. If it is held elsewhere, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.diocesidiroma.it/\\nRead the official press releases or news section of the Diocese of Rome regarding the funeral arrangements for Cardinal Camillo Ruini. If the funeral mass is held at San Giovanni in Laterano, resolve YES; if elsewhere, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No public funeral mass is held or announced by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Pope Francis personally preside over the funeral mass (or the final commendation and valediction rites at the end of the mass) for Cardinal Camillo Ruini?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Pope Francis personally presides over the funeral mass or personally conducts the rites of Ultima Commendatio and Valedictio at the end of Cardinal Camillo Ruini's funeral mass.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The funeral mass and its final rites are presided over and conducted entirely by other prelates (such as the Dean of the College of Cardinals or the Vicar of Rome) without Pope Francis personally presiding or conducting the final rites.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.vaticannews.va/it.html\\nRead the reports describing the funeral service of Cardinal Camillo Ruini. If it is stated that Pope Francis presided over the mass or personally led the Ultima Commendatio and Valedictio rites, resolve YES. If he did not participate in this capacity, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.diocesidiroma.it/\\nRead the diocesan reports on the funeral of Cardinal Camillo Ruini. If Pope Francis is reported to have personally presided over the mass or its final commendation rites, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No funeral mass is held for Cardinal Camillo Ruini by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:59:00.076Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4915,"completionTokens":902,"cost":0.015335595,"latencyMs":1195,"rawSha256":"f35e8659d7165bb31ba12adaceb4594039af60cebd9b3dd3bedc7812488f622e","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the flash estimate of Spain's annual Consumer Price Index (IPC) for June 2026, published by the INE, be 3.3% or higher?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of the annual CPI (IPC) rate for June 2026, published by Spain's Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), is 3.3% or higher.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of the annual CPI (IPC) rate for June 2026, published by Spain's Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), is 3.2% or lower.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176802&menu=ultiDatos&idp=1254735976607 (Read the official press release for the June 2026 flash estimate 'Indicador adelantado del IPC' and check the annual rate 'tasa de variación anual estimada del IPC'.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.ine.es/ (Search the press room or publications section for the June 2026 'Indicador adelantado del IPC' and check the annual rate.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The INE does not publish the flash estimate for June 2026 by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the flash estimate of Spain's annual Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (IPCA) for June 2026, published by the INE, be higher than its annual CPI (IPC) flash estimate for the same month?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of the annual HICP (IPCA) rate for June 2026 is strictly greater than the flash estimate of the annual CPI (IPC) rate for June 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of the annual HICP (IPCA) rate for June 2026 is less than or equal to the flash estimate of the annual CPI (IPC) rate for June 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176802&menu=ultiDatos&idp=1254735976607 (Read the official press release for the June 2026 flash estimate 'Indicador adelantado del IPC' and compare the annual rate of the IPC with the annual rate of the IPCA.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.ine.es/ (Search the press room or publications section for the June 2026 'Indicador adelantado del IPC' and compare the annual rate of the IPC with the annual rate of the IPCA.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The INE does not publish the flash estimate containing both IPC and IPCA figures for June 2026 by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:59:06.044Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4177,"completionTokens":791,"cost":0.013250655,"latencyMs":1046,"rawSha256":"e3f2d0d3165cdeb2c39a7a7584edee64a09243a511931ed0efc081e1cf2e5e4d","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un issue a joint statement during Xi's June 2026 visit to North Korea?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A joint statement, joint declaration, or joint communique signed or issued collectively by Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un (or on behalf of their respective governments/states) is officially published or reported by state media (such as KCNA or Xinhua) between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such joint statement, joint declaration, or joint communique is officially published or reported by state media (such as KCNA or Xinhua) between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://english.news.cn/ (Xinhua English) and http://www.kcna.kp/ (KCNA English). Read the official press releases and news reports covering the bilateral meetings of Xi Jinping's June 2026 visit to North Korea to determine if a joint statement or communique was issued.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://apnews.com/ (Associated Press). Search for coverage of Xi Jinping's June 2026 visit to North Korea to verify if a joint statement or joint communique was officially released.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T04:20:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T04:20:37Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The visit by Xi Jinping to North Korea is officially canceled or does not take place at all before July 7, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will North Korea conduct a confirmed nuclear test between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The United States Geological Survey (USGS) or the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) detects a seismic event in North Korea that is officially identified by South Korean, US, or international defense/intelligence agencies as a nuclear test conducted by North Korea during the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No seismic event in North Korea is officially identified by South Korean, US, or international defense/intelligence agencies as a nuclear test conducted by North Korea during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.usgs.gov/ (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program) and https://www.ctbto.org/ (CTBTO press releases). Read the seismic event logs and official press releases to confirm if a seismic event in North Korea was classified as an artificial explosion/nuclear test.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://apnews.com/ (Associated Press). Search for reports of a North Korean nuclear test occurring between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T04:20:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T04:20:37Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:59:10.571Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"307e0001-13c1-43a8-8983-0035414b3700","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3579,"completionTokens":776,"cost":0.012228975,"latencyMs":938,"rawSha256":"8f99684af8d42c83ab3dd450d3afb3e5d41261e26e08ea4ea760e656a8ccb38f","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Thomas Partey play in Ghana's 2026 World Cup match against England on June 23, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official match report or official FIFA statistics for the Ghana vs. England match on June 23, 2026, records Thomas Partey as having entered the pitch (either as a starter or as a substituted player) during the match.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official match report or official FIFA statistics for the Ghana vs. England match on June 23, 2026, does not record Thomas Partey as having played in the match, or the match is postponed/cancelled and not played by June 25, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026 (Read the official match center, lineup, and match report for the Ghana vs. England match scheduled for June 23, 2026, to verify if Thomas Partey played).\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.espn.com/soccer/fixtures (Search for the Ghana vs. England match on June 23, 2026, and check the lineups/player statistics to see if Thomas Partey played).\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-25T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match between Ghana and England scheduled for June 23, 2026, is not played or is abandoned before completion by June 25, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Canadian government grant Thomas Partey an entry visa or special authorization allowing him to enter Canada by June 28, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Any official statement from the Canadian government, FIFA, or the Ghana Football Association (GFA) confirms that Thomas Partey has been granted a visa, temporary resident permit, or other official entry clearance to enter Canada after his initial refusal.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official statement from the Canadian government, FIFA, or the Ghana Football Association (GFA) confirms that Thomas Partey has been granted entry clearance to Canada by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.ghanafa.org (Read the official news releases and statements from the Ghana Football Association regarding Thomas Partey's visa status or travel updates).\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.nytimes.com (Search for news articles regarding Thomas Partey's Canadian visa status or World Cup travel updates).\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-28T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-28T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Ghana is disqualified from the 2026 World Cup before June 28, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:59:15.546Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3367c326-c249-48ad-884d-a3a95322eca1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3344,"completionTokens":776,"cost":0.01188,"latencyMs":979,"rawSha256":"68a7511a263ea06406bf74ebee29bd3b3aa0ef89c591fc40f6b6c358c9a7e9ee","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Ibrahima Konaté on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official website of Real Madrid (realmadrid.com) publishes an official statement (Comunicado Oficial) announcing that they have reached an agreement to sign, or have signed, the player Ibrahima Konaté.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement is published by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news (Read the official news/announcements page. If an official statement confirming the signing of Ibrahima Konaté is published between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026, the resolution is YES. If no such announcement is published by the deadline, the resolution is NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lequipe.fr (Search for news regarding Ibrahima Konaté's transfer to Real Madrid. If L'Équipe reports that Real Madrid has officially announced the signing of Konaté during the specified timeframe, the resolution is YES.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Ibrahima Konaté publicly announces his retirement from professional football before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Denzel Dumfries on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official website of Real Madrid (realmadrid.com) publishes an official statement (Comunicado Oficial) announcing that they have reached an agreement to sign, or have signed, the player Denzel Dumfries.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement is published by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news (Read the official news/announcements page. If an official statement confirming the signing of Denzel Dumfries is published between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026, the resolution is YES. If no such announcement is published by the deadline, the resolution is NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.gazzetta.it (Search for news regarding Denzel Dumfries's transfer to Real Madrid. If La Gazzetta dello Sport reports that Real Madrid has officially announced the signing of Dumfries during the specified timeframe, the resolution is YES.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Denzel Dumfries publicly announces his retirement from professional football before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T12:59:19.715Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"356eb3b6-ad28-4063-ae27-2d7a131a6d1a","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4963,"completionTokens":942,"cost":0.015763275,"latencyMs":746,"rawSha256":"9e8a73b40301b1bb68d4e6431fb847c5bd19c2c3e4c3ed29627534be7184bab1","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Audiencia Nacional or the Juzgado de Instrucción No. 9 of Madrid issue a formal ruling or order to archive (sobreseimiento) the case against Leire Díez by July 2, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A formal judicial resolution, order, or ruling (auto) is issued by either the Audiencia Nacional (under Judge Santiago Pedraz or his replacement) or the Juzgado de Instrucción No. 9 of Madrid (under Judge Arturo Zamarriego or his replacement) that explicitly decrees the provisional or definitive dismissal/archiving (sobreseimiento provisional o libre) of the criminal case/investigation against Leire Díez (also referred to as María Leire Díez Castro).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such formal judicial resolution or order archiving or dismissing the case against Leire Díez is issued by either court within the specified timeframe, or the investigation remains active.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.poderjudicial.es/cgpj/es/Poder-Judicial/Noticias-Judiciales/\\nRead the official press releases and judicial updates published by the Consejo General del Poder Judicial (CGPJ) for the Audiencia Nacional and Madrid courts. A YES is decided if an official note or published ruling confirms the 'sobreseimiento' (dismissal/archiving) of the case against Leire Díez. A NO is decided if no such announcement is made or if the case remains open.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com/\\nSearch for news articles regarding 'Leire Díez' and 'sobreseimiento' or 'archivo'. A YES is decided if El País or another major Spanish national newspaper (such as El Mundo or ABC) reports that the court has officially archived or dismissed the case against her. A NO is decided if no such reporting occurs.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T12:40:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-02T12:40:37Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Spanish judicial system enters an indefinite nationwide strike that completely halts all court announcements and publications during the entire period from June 9, 2026, to July 2, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Santos Cerdán resign or be formally removed from his position as a member of the Spanish Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) by July 2, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Santos Cerdán officially resigns, is expelled, or otherwise ceases to hold his seat as a deputy (diputado) in the Congreso de los Diputados.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Santos Cerdán remains an active member of the Congreso de los Diputados.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.congreso.es/\\nCheck the official directory of deputies on the Congreso de los Diputados website. Search for 'Santos Cerdán León'. A YES is decided if his profile status indicates he has ceased to hold office ('causó baja') on or before the deadline. A NO is decided if he is still listed as an active deputy.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.elmundo.es/\\nSearch for news reports regarding 'Santos Cerdán' and 'dimite', 'renuncia', or 'deja el acta'. A YES is decided if major Spanish national media confirm he has resigned or lost his seat in Congress. A NO is decided if no such event is reported.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T12:40:37Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-02T12:40:37Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Spanish Congress of Deputies is dissolved entirely due to a call for snap general elections before July 2, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:16.579Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"37435e85-30c2-46e3-a923-6fae6a7247e9","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3816,"completionTokens":797,"cost":0.01276803,"latencyMs":1435,"rawSha256":"326d505af898474dc562b4c5218544f63c19ae0724c237f0ad90deb25659d5d8","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the IAEA publish an official report or update confirming that its team has completed an on-site inspection of the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility (CSFSF) near Chernobyl following the June 7, 2026 drone strike?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The IAEA publishes an official press release, update, or report on its website confirming that an IAEA team has visited and completed an on-site inspection of the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility (CSFSF) near Chernobyl to assess the damage from the June 7, 2026 drone strike.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The IAEA does not publish any official confirmation of an completed on-site inspection of the CSFSF by its team within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases (Read the official press releases and updates published between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, to verify if an IAEA team completed an on-site inspection of the CSFSF near Chernobyl following the June 7, 2026 strike.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com (Search for Reuters reports citing official IAEA statements confirming that the IAEA team completed its on-site inspection of the CSFSF near Chernobyl.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T09:01:21Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T09:01:21Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The IAEA officially states that it is unable to verify or inspect the site due to ongoing military hostilities or safety concerns, without any inspection taking place by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Ukrainian State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate (SNRIU) or Energoatom report an increase in radiation levels above normal operational safety limits at the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility (CSFSF) near Chernobyl?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The SNRIU or Energoatom officially reports that radiation levels at the CSFSF site have exceeded the established normal operational safety limits as a direct or indirect consequence of the June 7, 2026 strike.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official report of radiation levels exceeding normal operational safety limits at the CSFSF is published by the SNRIU or Energoatom within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://snriu.gov.ua/en (Read the official English or Ukrainian news updates of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine to see if they report radiation levels exceeding normal limits at the CSFSF.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases (Read the IAEA updates on Ukraine's nuclear safety to see if they report that Ukrainian authorities detected radiation levels exceeding normal limits at the CSFSF.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T09:01:21Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T09:01:21Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The CSFSF facility is completely destroyed by a subsequent military strike, making radiation monitoring at that specific facility impossible to report.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:21.932Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3a7b5c02-c785-4373-9e1a-e11cfb0ce6a7","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4364,"completionTokens":988,"cost":0.01528362,"latencyMs":838,"rawSha256":"7c32ddab47ae3dce73c59fb10d680314d18ce5495ce8db68e412bd5e2658b833","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the official Instagram account of Marjane Satrapi (@marjanesatrapi) post or share any new public post, reel, or story between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official Instagram account of Marjane Satrapi (https://www.instagram.com/marjanesatrapi) publishes or shares at least one new public post, reel, or story (including posthumous tributes, family statements, or archival content posted by her estate/representatives) that is timestamped between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, inclusive.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official Instagram account of Marjane Satrapi (https://www.instagram.com/marjanesatrapi) does not publish or share any new public post, reel, or story timestamped between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, inclusive, or the account is deleted/made private.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.instagram.com/marjanesatrapi - Read the public posts, reels, or stories on the profile to check if any new content has been published with a timestamp between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://archive.org/ - Search for archived snapshots of https://www.instagram.com/marjanesatrapi taken on or after July 4, 2026, to verify if any posts were published during the target window.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-04T08:15:31Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-04T08:15:31Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Instagram account @marjanesatrapi is verified to have been hacked or compromised during the entire target window.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the French Ministry of Culture issue an official press release or public statement on its official website honoring or paying tribute to Marjane Satrapi between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The French Ministry of Culture publishes an official press release, speech, or statement on its official website (culture.gouv.fr) specifically honoring, paying tribute to, or commemorating Marjane Satrapi, dated or published between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, inclusive.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The French Ministry of Culture does not publish any official press release, speech, or statement on its official website (culture.gouv.fr) specifically honoring, paying tribute to, or commemorating Marjane Satrapi, dated or published between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, inclusive.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.culture.gouv.fr/Presse/Communiques-de-presse - Read the list of official press releases and statements published between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, to see if any focus on a tribute or statement regarding Marjane Satrapi.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.google.com - Search site:culture.gouv.fr \\\"Marjane Satrapi\\\" filtered for results published between June 11, 2026, and July 4, 2026, to identify any official statements.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-04T08:15:31Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-04T08:15:31Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The official website of the French Ministry of Culture (culture.gouv.fr) is completely inaccessible or down continuously from June 28, 2026, through July 4, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:27.611Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3d03e1d7-2579-4036-ac20-5a9cc5267b86","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4090,"completionTokens":739,"cost":0.01265814,"latencyMs":866,"rawSha256":"3e20d8051a7ae3038e87356878fa84d768c21c9d68d6d727c4566a0c0c32d64f","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha return his Polish Order of Merit before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A public announcement or official statement from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Polish Presidential Office, or Andrij Sybiha himself confirms that Sybiha has physically returned, formally renounced, or officially handed back his Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland (received in 2022) to Polish authorities.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official confirmation of the return or formal renunciation of the award is published by the deadline, or the award remains in his possession.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.facebook.com/andrii.sybiha (Read the official Facebook posts of Andrij Sybiha to see if he confirms the physical return or formal renunciation of his Polish Order of Merit)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.pap.pl/en (Search for news reports regarding Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha returning his Polish Order of Merit)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Andrij Sybiha is no longer the Foreign Minister of Ukraine due to death or permanent incapacitation before the return is executed.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdańsk (Danzig) scheduled for June 25-26, 2026, be officially postponed or canceled?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official announcement from the Polish government, the Ukrainian government, or the conference's official organizing committee states that the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdańsk, originally scheduled for June 25-26, 2026, has been postponed to a later date or canceled entirely.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The conference takes place on June 25 and/or June 26, 2026, as scheduled, or is not officially postponed or canceled by the end of June 26, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy (Read the official press releases of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs to check for any postponement or cancellation announcements regarding the Gdańsk conference)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.pap.pl/en (Search for news reports confirming the postponement, cancellation, or successful commencement of the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdańsk)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-26T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-26T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The conference venue is affected by a force majeure event (such as a natural disaster or terrorist attack) unrelated to the diplomatic dispute, rendering the event physically impossible.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:32.139Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"3fe38d6e-888d-44f7-bb23-af091ea2dbdc","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4272,"completionTokens":671,"cost":0.01232253,"latencyMs":1282,"rawSha256":"d4332a84398181fdc2c66fbcdbabca9eb66d7668da7123988bd5f50eafc3ef5d","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Keir Starmer remain the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Keir Starmer continuously holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from June 18, 2026, through July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Keir Starmer ceases to hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between June 18, 2026, and July 10, 2026 (inclusive).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister\\nCheck the official UK government website to see if Keir Starmer is listed as the Prime Minister. If another individual is listed as Prime Minister, or if the office is vacant, the outcome is NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news/politics\\nCheck BBC News politics section to confirm if Keir Starmer has resigned, been replaced, or otherwise left office.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The UK government is dissolved or ceases to exist as a sovereign entity.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the UK government officially publish its Defence Investment Plan (DIP) by July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The UK government officially publishes the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) document on or before July 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The UK government does not officially publish the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) document on or before July 7, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-defence\\nCheck the official publications and announcements of the UK Ministry of Defence to see if the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) has been officially published.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news/politics\\nCheck BBC News politics section to confirm if the UK government has officially released the Defence Investment Plan.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The UK Ministry of Defence is abolished or its functions are entirely suspended due to an emergency.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:36.808Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4659,"completionTokens":774,"cost":0.013814955,"latencyMs":731,"rawSha256":"afdfefc7e419b43012cab9ed5a4d19c988f626119d457fb69c7bb893db17f7fa","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the New York Knicks hold a public championship parade in New York City to celebrate their 2026 NBA title on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A public parade, rally, or official civic celebration honoring the New York Knicks' 2026 NBA championship is held in New York City (such as a parade through the Canyon of Heroes) on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No public parade, rally, or official civic celebration honoring the New York Knicks' 2026 NBA championship is held in New York City on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.nba.com/knicks/\\nRead the official news and announcements on the Knicks' official homepage to verify if a public championship parade or rally took place in New York City on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.nytimes.com/\\nSearch the New York Times for reports of a public championship parade or civic celebration in New York City honoring the Knicks' 2026 NBA title on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 NBA Finals outcome is legally overturned or vacated by the NBA prior to the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Jalen Brunson sign a contract extension with the New York Knicks between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official announcement or reliable media report confirms that Jalen Brunson has signed a contract extension with the New York Knicks between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026 (inclusive).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement or reliable media report confirms that Jalen Brunson has signed a contract extension with the New York Knicks between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.nba.com/news\\nRead the official NBA transactions and news page to see if Jalen Brunson is officially listed as having signed a contract extension with the Knicks during the specified window.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.espn.com/nba/\\nSearch ESPN's NBA transaction tracker and news articles to verify if Jalen Brunson signed a contract extension with the Knicks during the specified window.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Jalen Brunson is traded to another team before any extension is signed.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:40.964Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"5be27879-b6b4-4d4e-bd37-8c8629f80cd4","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4257,"completionTokens":743,"cost":0.012941775,"latencyMs":795,"rawSha256":"679029154d443ca97db52a5e938cd711064ff9f2618716a04a4a28c3e495c2d8","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Davide Ancelotti be officially replaced or step down as the head coach of LOSC Lille on or before June 25, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"LOSC Lille or Davide Ancelotti officially announces his departure, resignation, or termination as the head coach of the club, or another individual is officially appointed as the new head coach of the club.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Davide Ancelotti remains the officially designated head coach of LOSC Lille, with no official announcement of his departure, resignation, termination, or replacement.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.losc.fr/ actual club news page. A YES is determined if there is an official club statement announcing that Davide Ancelotti has left his post, has been terminated, or that a new head coach has been hired to replace him. A NO is determined if no such announcement is made.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lequipe.fr/ Football section. A YES is determined if L'Équipe reports that Davide Ancelotti is no longer the head coach of Lille or has been replaced. A NO is determined if he remains in his role.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T10:42:44Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-25T10:42:44Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"LOSC Lille ceases to exist as a professional football club\",\n \"The entire French Ligue 1 is permanently suspended or dissolved\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Olivier Létang be replaced or step down as the President of LOSC Lille on or before June 25, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"LOSC Lille officially announces that Olivier Létang is no longer the President of the club, or that a new President has been appointed to replace him.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Olivier Létang remains the active President of LOSC Lille, with no official announcement of his departure, resignation, or replacement.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.losc.fr/ actual club news page. A YES is determined if there is an official club statement announcing that Olivier Létang has left his post as President or that a new President has been appointed. A NO is determined if no such announcement is made.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lequipe.fr/ Football section. A YES is determined if L'Équipe reports that Olivier Létang is no longer the President of Lille. A NO is determined if he remains in his role.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T10:42:44Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-25T10:42:44Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"LOSC Lille ceases to exist as a professional football club\",\n \"The club is sold and the role of President is structurally eliminated entirely from the organization\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:44.973Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5374,"completionTokens":855,"cost":0.01559844,"latencyMs":928,"rawSha256":"c21cb62434bda55499385fcf35a466de69a59a7b5b9eb1457f6c64cfa1889c38","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Toy Story 5 have a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of 85.0% or higher on June 24, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is 85.0% or higher (i.e., >= 85%) as of 4:00 PM UTC on June 24, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 on Rotten Tomatoes is strictly less than 85.0% (i.e., < 85%) as of 4:00 PM UTC on June 24, 2026, or the film does not have a Tomatometer score listed.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/toy_story_5 - Read the Tomatometer percentage score displayed on this page at the specified time.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/toy_story_5 - Retrieve the archived version of the Rotten Tomatoes page closest to 4:00 PM UTC on June 24, 2026, and read the Tomatometer percentage score.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-24T16:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-24T16:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The film Toy Story 5 is not listed on Rotten Tomatoes by the deadline.\",\n \"Rotten Tomatoes does not display a Tomatometer score (e.g., due to insufficient reviews) by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Toy Story 5 be the number one film at the domestic weekend box office for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026, according to Box Office Mojo?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Toy Story 5 is listed as the #1 film by weekend gross in the domestic box office chart for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Any film other than Toy Story 5 is listed as the #1 film by weekend gross in the domestic box office chart for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/by-year/2026/ - Locate the row for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026 (usually Week 25) and verify if 'Toy Story 5' is listed as the #1 movie.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2026/06/19 - Verify if 'Toy Story 5' is listed as the #1 movie on the domestic weekend chart starting June 19, 2026.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-25T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-25T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No domestic weekend box office data is published for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026 by either source by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:49.715Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"6f9f6672-a611-485d-abdf-a59da248a88d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":3601,"completionTokens":785,"cost":0.012341835,"latencyMs":806,"rawSha256":"5a60de906de32c2b51e1e5ae3413b83c20005593a8d038d76ffb2c7cf2c55504","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Christie's or Sotheby's announce the consignment or upcoming auction of any original painting by David Hockney with an estimated value of $10 million USD or more between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official website or press room of Christie's (christies.com) or Sotheby's (sothebys.com) publishes a press release or official auction listing announcing the consignment or upcoming sale of an original painting by David Hockney with a low-estimate or high-estimate value of $10,000,000 USD or more.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such announcement or official listing is published by Christie's or Sotheby's within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.christies.com/about-us/press-archive and https://www.sothebys.com/en/press\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.artnews.com/category/market/ (Read the published articles to verify if any report confirms an official announcement by Christie's or Sotheby's of a David Hockney painting valued at $10 million USD or more being consigned or scheduled for auction).\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The websites of both Christie's and Sotheby's are completely inaccessible due to persistent technical outages during the entire period from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Tate Britain announce a new dedicated memorial exhibition or retrospective for David Hockney to be held in 2026 or 2027, with the announcement occurring between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official Tate website (tate.org.uk) publishes a press release or exhibition announcement explicitly stating that a new exhibition or retrospective dedicated to David Hockney will be held at Tate Britain in 2026 or 2027.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement of a new dedicated David Hockney exhibition at Tate Britain is published within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.tate.org.uk/press/press-releases\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign (Read the art news section to verify if Tate Britain has officially announced a new David Hockney memorial exhibition or retrospective).\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Tate press release website is permanently down or inaccessible from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:54.508Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":2,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"6f9f6672-a611-485d-abdf-a59da248a88d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3601,"completionTokens":845,"cost":0.012876435,"latencyMs":1035,"rawSha256":"f9f9874bacd837820cacbba43a11a47ed05ad57b96f05811adce8d6c3310105e","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Christie's or Sotheby's announce the consignment or upcoming auction of any painting by David Hockney with an estimated value of $10 million USD or more between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Either Christie's or Sotheby's officially announces via a press release or public auction catalog on their website that they have been consigned or will auction a painting by David Hockney with a low-estimate or high-estimate value of $10 million USD (or equivalent in GBP/EUR) or more.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such announcement is made by Christie's or Sotheby's during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.christies.com/presscenter and https://www.sothebys.com/en/press - Check the official press release portals of Christie's and Sotheby's for any announcements regarding David Hockney consignments or upcoming sales with estimates of $10 million USD or more published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.artnews.com - Search for articles reporting on major upcoming art auctions or consignments of David Hockney works valued at $10 million USD or more announced during the specified period.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The websites of both Christie's and Sotheby's press centers are completely inaccessible for more than 48 consecutive hours during the period.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Tate Britain or Tate Modern announce a major retrospective or memorial exhibition dedicated to David Hockney to open in 2026 or 2027, with the announcement occurring between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Tate (tate.org.uk) publishes an official press release or updates its exhibition calendar announcing a new retrospective or memorial exhibition dedicated to David Hockney scheduled to open in 2026 or 2027.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement or exhibition calendar update is published by the Tate during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.tate.org.uk/press/press-releases - Check the official Tate press releases page for any announcements regarding a David Hockney retrospective or memorial exhibition scheduled for 2026 or 2027, published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.theartnewspaper.com - Search for news articles reporting on Tate's exhibition announcements or memorial plans for David Hockney published during the specified period.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Tate's official press website is permanently down or inaccessible during the entire period from June 19, 2026, to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"event-recurs\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:04:59.444Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"70ed847d-7575-4ab5-b580-081e250b3c71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":6454,"completionTokens":799,"cost":0.01670328,"latencyMs":1637,"rawSha256":"daee22d075e5213b59425521d647c6ce7f61685fbdb84c227fb80fec8493d35c","raw":"[\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Lockheed Martin and Germany sign a contract for additional F-35 fighter jets, beyond the 35 aircraft ordered in 2022, between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The German government (or Ministry of Defence) and Lockheed Martin officially sign a contract or agreement to purchase additional F-35 fighter jets beyond the initial 35 ordered in December 2022.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such contract or agreement for additional F-35 fighter jets is signed during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.bmvg.de/de/aktuelles\\nRead the official press releases of the German Federal Ministry of Defence; a YES is recorded if a contract signing for additional F-35s is announced, otherwise NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://news.lockheedmartin.com\\nRead the official Lockheed Martin newsroom; a YES is recorded if a contract signing for additional German F-35s is announced, otherwise NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The German Ministry of Defence or Lockheed Martin's official press channels are completely inaccessible and no reputable international defense news outlet (e.g., Reuters, Defense News, Janes) reports on the matter.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Poland's Ministry of National Defence officially announce the arrival of a fourth Polish F-35 \\\"Husarz\\\" fighter jet physically landing on Polish soil between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Polish Ministry of National Defence (MON) or the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces officially announces that a fourth F-35 \\\"Husarz\\\" has physically arrived and landed in Poland (e.g., at the 32nd Tactical Air Base in Łask).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of a fourth Polish F-35 physically arriving in Poland is made during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.pl/web/obrona-narodowa/wiadomosci\\nRead the official news feed of the Polish Ministry of National Defence; a YES is recorded if they announce the physical arrival/landing of a fourth F-35 in Poland, otherwise NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.wojsko-polskie.pl/sztab-generalny/aktualnosci/\\nRead the official news feed of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces; a YES is recorded if they announce the physical arrival/landing of a fourth F-35 in Poland, otherwise NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The official Polish military websites are completely down and no major Polish news agency (e.g., PAP) reports on the arrival of the aircraft.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n]","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:04.834Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":2,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"70ed847d-7575-4ab5-b580-081e250b3c71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":6454,"completionTokens":792,"cost":0.008560431,"latencyMs":1606,"rawSha256":"3a6c48511ac73febbdfb0f2428d5490fe0b56754db885d2e7bd08f7f5684f23f","raw":"[\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Lockheed Martin and Germany sign an agreement or contract for additional F-35 fighter jets beyond the 35 aircraft ordered in 2022, between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A formal contract, agreement, or memorandum of understanding is signed between Lockheed Martin (or the US government on its behalf) and the German government/Bundeswehr for the purchase of additional F-35 fighter jets (beyond the original 35 ordered in 2022).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such contract, agreement, or memorandum of understanding for additional F-35 fighter jets is signed during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news.html\\nRead the official press releases published by Lockheed Martin between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to determine if a contract or agreement for additional German F-35s has been signed.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bmvg.de/de/presse\\nRead the official press releases of the German Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVg) to verify if any new procurement contract for F-35s was signed.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The German government cancels or voids the original 2022 order of 35 F-35 jets entirely before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the German Luftwaffe officially present or roll out its first completed F-35 fighter jet to the public or media between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The German Luftwaffe, the German Ministry of Defence, or Lockheed Martin officially presents, rolls out, or unveils the first completed German F-35 fighter jet (often referred to as a rollout ceremony) to the public or media.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official rollout or public presentation ceremony of the first German F-35 fighter jet occurs during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe/aktuelles\\nRead the official news and press releases of the German Luftwaffe to see if the rollout ceremony of the first German F-35 has taken place.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news.html\\nRead Lockheed Martin's official press releases to check for announcements of the first German F-35 rollout ceremony.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Lockheed Martin files for bankruptcy or halts all F-35 production globally before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n]","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:10.336Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3786,"completionTokens":741,"cost":0.01222452,"latencyMs":837,"rawSha256":"acd9229fc70e3857544cd86a5f20b0e7483af1791010609c3bc6b1fdcb04301d","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Marc Cucurella from Chelsea on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid officially announces on its website or verified social media channels that they have signed Marc Cucurella (or reached a definitive agreement for his transfer) from Chelsea.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of Marc Cucurella's signing is made by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news\\nRead the official news feed of Real Madrid. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the signing or transfer agreement of Marc Cucurella, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news\\nRead the official news feed of Chelsea FC. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the transfer of Marc Cucurella to Real Madrid, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Marc Cucurella retires from professional football before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Bernardo Silva on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid officially announces on its website or verified social media channels that they have signed Bernardo Silva (or reached a definitive agreement for his transfer/signing).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of Bernardo Silva's signing is made by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news\\nRead the official news feed of Real Madrid. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the signing or transfer agreement of Bernardo Silva, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.mancity.com/news\\nRead the official news feed of Manchester City. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the departure of Bernardo Silva to Real Madrid, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Bernardo Silva retires from professional football before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:14.180Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"7ecc993b-9da6-490f-bac2-2624cc163bb3","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3554,"completionTokens":876,"cost":0.01308285,"latencyMs":808,"rawSha256":"7f3dc9b0adc6dd9f75836069f89e618b4d23f9a300d85529d89fe94423ae2745","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Germany win its opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The German men's national football team wins its opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao (scheduled for June 14, 2026) in regular time, extra time, or via penalty shootout.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The match ends in a draw, Curacao wins, or the match is not completed or officially recorded as a German victory by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026\\nRetrieve the official match results for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If Germany is recorded as having won the match against Curacao scheduled for June 14, 2026, the resolution is YES. If the match is recorded as a draw, a loss for Germany, or is postponed beyond the deadline, the resolution is NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.kicker.de/\\nNavigate to the World Cup 2026 section and check the match center for Germany vs. Curacao on June 14, 2026. If Germany is shown as the winner, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-16T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-16T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match between Germany and Curacao scheduled for June 14, 2026, is cancelled, abandoned, or postponed to a date after June 15, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Manuel Neuer start as the goalkeeper for Germany in their first match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Manuel Neuer is named in the starting lineup (starting XI) as the goalkeeper for Germany in their opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Manuel Neuer is not named in the starting lineup (e.g., Oliver Baumann or another goalkeeper starts, or Neuer is on the bench/not in the squad) for Germany's opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026\\nRetrieve the official starting lineups for the Germany vs. Curacao match scheduled for June 14, 2026. If Manuel Neuer is listed in the starting XI, resolve YES. If he is listed as a substitute, not in the squad, or another player starts in goal, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.dfb.de/die-mannschaft/start/\\nCheck the official lineup announcement or match report for the Germany vs. Curacao match on June 14, 2026. If Manuel Neuer is in the starting XI, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-15T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Germany's opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup against Curacao is postponed beyond June 15, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:19.041Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"7f66b995-1ef5-40eb-870b-7503272a1abd","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4379,"completionTokens":740,"cost":0.013096215,"latencyMs":896,"rawSha256":"a38c8695b91be3db869906c16501d91c098cdacb653b28c9901606a2e9905858","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Canada's men's national soccer team qualify for the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Canada's men's national soccer team officially advances to the Round of 16 (the first knockout round) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Canada's men's national soccer team is mathematically eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup during the group stage and does not advance to the Round of 16.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026\\nRead the official tournament standings, bracket, or match schedules to verify if Canada is listed as one of the teams advancing to the Round of 16.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.espn.com/soccer/table/_/league/fifa.world\\nRead the Group B standings and tournament bracket to confirm whether Canada finishes in a qualifying position and advances to the Round of 16.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, suspended, or postponed such that the Group B matches or the start of the Round of 16 do not take place before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Sassuolo or Ismaël Koné's representative officially announce his transfer to another club by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Sassuolo, Ismaël Koné, or his acquiring club officially announces that a permanent transfer agreement has been reached for Koné to join a new club.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement of a permanent transfer is made by Sassuolo, Koné, or an acquiring club by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.sassuolocalcio.it/en/\\nRead the official news and press releases section of U.S. Sassuolo Calcio to see if a permanent transfer for Ismaël Koné is officially announced.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.legaseriea.it/en\\nRead the official Serie A transfer registration page or official news to confirm if Ismaël Koné's permanent transfer from Sassuolo has been registered or announced.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Ismaël Koné is deceased before the deadline.\",\n \"Sassuolo Calcio ceases to exist as a professional football club before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:23.753Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"823927c0-465a-43b4-b494-52427de9bbe2","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4107,"completionTokens":793,"cost":0.013164525,"latencyMs":1130,"rawSha256":"1b249ad767204d2bda8854e5e220ee1c1aea4cf68003dbf7676e678408ff5b23","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Switzerland win their second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Switzerland men's national football team wins their second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (scheduled against Bosnia and Herzegovina or Canada, following their June 13 opener against Qatar).\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Switzerland men's national football team draws or loses their second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, or the match is not completed by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026\\nRead the official match center results for Switzerland's second group stage match of the 2026 World Cup. If Switzerland wins, YES. If they draw or lose, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.srf.ch/sport\\nRead the match report for Switzerland's second group stage game of the 2026 World Cup. If Switzerland wins, YES. If they draw or lose, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Switzerland's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is postponed beyond July 10, 2026, or is abandoned/canceled without an official result determined by FIFA.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Qatar qualify for the Round of 32 (knockout stage) of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Qatar finishes in a position in Group B (either top two, or as one of the best third-placed teams if applicable under the 48-team format) that officially advances them to the Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Qatar is officially eliminated in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and does not advance to the Round of 32.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026\\nRead the official tournament standings and bracket. If Qatar is listed as advancing to the Round of 32 from Group B, YES. If they are eliminated in the group stage, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.aljazeera.com/sports\\nRead the sports coverage of the 2026 World Cup group stage conclusion. If Qatar qualifies for the knockout stage, YES. If they are eliminated, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Group B matches are not fully completed by the deadline, or Qatar is disqualified from the tournament for non-sporting reasons before the group stage concludes.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:28.908Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"852c54bc-055e-467e-bc8e-e950db66ffa7","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3617,"completionTokens":700,"cost":0.011608245,"latencyMs":994,"rawSha256":"03c409e34f853e46d362a2319eb93fff70ab3941859c1bb6a84f695987c10bfb","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Audiencia Provincial of Madrid or another Spanish appeals court officially suspend or overturn the withdrawal of Begoña Gómez's passport before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official ruling or order by the Audiencia Provincial of Madrid (or a higher Spanish court) is published or announced, which explicitly suspends, revokes, or overturns the precautionary measure (medida cautelar) of withdrawing Begoña Gómez's passport.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such ruling or order suspending or overturning the passport withdrawal is issued, or the measure remains fully in effect as of the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.poderjudicial.es/cgpj/es/Poder-Judicial/Noticias-Judiciales/\\nRetrieval rule: Read the official press releases and judicial news section of the Spanish General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) to verify if any appellate court has suspended or overturned the passport withdrawal for Begoña Gómez.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com/\\nRetrieval rule: Search the main national news section of EL PAÍS for reports on judicial decisions regarding Begoña Gómez's appeal against her precautionary measures.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The entire criminal case against Begoña Gómez is dismissed or archived in its entirety before the deadline, which would render the specific appeal on the passport moot.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Pedro Sánchez resign or announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Pedro Sánchez makes a public, official announcement stating that he is resigning or has submitted his resignation as Prime Minister (Presidente del Gobierno) of Spain.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Pedro Sánchez remains in office and does not announce his resignation before the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/\\nRetrieval rule: Check the official press releases and statements from the Presidency of the Government of Spain to see if a resignation announcement has been issued.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.rtve.es/noticias/\\nRetrieval rule: Check the national news section of RTVE to confirm if Pedro Sánchez has announced his resignation.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Pedro Sánchez becomes physically incapacitated or dies before any resignation announcement is made.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:33.327Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"8681ac31-28fa-4d71-881f-b0d2219ef156","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3598,"completionTokens":813,"cost":0.01258686,"latencyMs":846,"rawSha256":"0a1a07232dc5c05cb93f279083906611396f0d165f8decbd8ad408f36715585d","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Serena Williams and Victoria Mboko win their first-round doubles match at the 2026 Queen's Club tournament?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Serena Williams and Victoria Mboko are officially recorded as winning their first-round match (the very first match they play as a pair) in the women's doubles draw at the 2026 Queen's Club tournament.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Serena Williams and Victoria Mboko lose their first-round match, withdraw/retire before or during the match resulting in a walkover/loss, or do not play together in the tournament's main doubles draw.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com/tournament/1038/london-queens-club/draws (Read the official WTA draws and match results for the 2026 London/Queen's Club tournament. If Williams/Mboko win their first-round match, it resolves YES. If they lose, withdraw, or do not play, it resolves NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.flashscore.com/tennis/wta-doubles/london/ (Search for Serena Williams / Victoria Mboko in the 2026 London WTA doubles results. If they are recorded as winning their first-round match, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-22T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-22T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 Queen's Club women's doubles tournament is entirely cancelled or postponed beyond July 1, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Serena Williams be officially awarded a singles main draw wildcard for the 2026 Wimbledon Championships by June 24, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) officially announces or lists Serena Williams as a recipient of a wildcard entry into the women's singles main draw for the 2026 Wimbledon Championships.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official wildcard announcements are completed and Serena Williams is not awarded a singles main draw wildcard, or no such announcement is made by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/news/articles/wild_cards.html (Read the official Wimbledon wild cards announcement page. If Serena Williams is listed under 'Wild Cards - Ladies' Singles' for the 2026 tournament, resolve YES. If she is not listed, or only listed for doubles, resolve NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com/ (Search for official WTA news releases regarding Wimbledon 2026 wildcards. If they confirm Serena Williams received a singles main draw wildcard, resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-24T17:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-24T17:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 Wimbledon tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 1, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:38.464Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"881101ba-900c-416c-8fbb-2f072628b023","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3375,"completionTokens":863,"cost":0.012701205,"latencyMs":850,"rawSha256":"260f62c7ae615b357533bf7c48beddd10ef499e6fe4446abb3e2822e051a4e31","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Governor of Irkutsk Oblast, Igor Kobzev, be officially replaced or dismissed from his post as governor between June 22, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Kremlin, the official portal of the Irkutsk Oblast government, or major state news agencies (TASS/RIA Novosti) announce that Igor Kobzev has resigned, been dismissed, or replaced by an acting governor, and this change takes official effect within the specified period.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Igor Kobzev remains the active Governor of Irkutsk Oblast throughout the entire period from June 22, 2026, to July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://irkobl.ru/ (Official portal of the Irkutsk Oblast Government. Check the news section and the 'Governor' profile page to see if Igor Kobzev is replaced or if an acting governor is appointed.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://tass.ru/ (TASS Russian News Agency. Search for 'Игорь Кобзев' or 'Иркутская область' to verify any official decrees regarding his dismissal or replacement.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The government of Irkutsk Oblast is entirely dissolved due to federal administrative restructuring or war-related emergency measures.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Russian Ministry of Defense or a state-run news agency (TASS, RIA Novosti, or Interfax) officially attribute the June 15, 2026, Tu-22M3 crash in Irkutsk to a 'technical malfunction' (техническая неисправность) in an official statement published between June 22, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, or a report by TASS, RIA Novosti, or Interfax citing defense/investigative officials, explicitly states that the preliminary or final cause of the June 15, 2026, Tu-22M3 crash in Irkutsk was a 'technical malfunction' (техническая неисправность) or 'technical failure'.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official statement or report is published within the specified timeframe, or the cause is officially attributed to pilot error, weather, sabotage, or remains officially 'under investigation' without a declared cause.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://tass.ru/ (TASS Russian News Agency. Search for 'Ту-22М3' and 'Иркутск' to find reports on the official investigation results of the June 15 crash.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://interfax.ru/ (Interfax News Agency. Search for 'Ту-22М3' and 'Иркутск' to find reports on the official investigation results of the June 15 crash.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"It is discovered that the crash did not actually occur on June 15, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:43.531Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3223,"completionTokens":1011,"cost":0.013794165,"latencyMs":815,"rawSha256":"94cc3b8822d3d4a8eee1e7563eec1cfe1e7e3362382c90b68b47afb164e7c8a3","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Congress of Deputies of Spain approve a motion or amendment that formally urges or demands that President Pedro Sánchez dissolve the Cortes Generales and call general elections, during the plenary sessions scheduled for the week of June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) of Spain votes on and approves (by simple or absolute majority) a motion, or an amendment to a motion (such as the PP motion regarding the government's weakness), that explicitly calls on, demands, or urges the President of the Government to dissolve the Cortes Generales and/or call general elections.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The Congress of Deputies votes on such a motion or amendment and rejects it, or no such vote takes place during the specified period, or the motion is withdrawn without a vote.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.congreso.es/\\nRead the official voting records, daily journal of sessions (Diario de Sesiones), or official press releases of the Congress of Deputies for the plenary sessions held between June 16, 2026, and June 20, 2026. If a motion or amendment urging the dissolution of the Cortes/calling of elections is recorded as approved (Aprobado), the resolution is YES. If it is rejected (Rechazado) or not voted on, the resolution is NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com/\\nSearch the national politics section of El País for coverage of the parliamentary votes in the Congress of Deputies on June 18, 2026 (or surrounding days of that week). If El País reports that the Congress approved the initiative/amendment demanding or urging Pedro Sánchez to call elections, the resolution is YES.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-23T10:27:57Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-23T10:27:57Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The plenary sessions of the Congress of Deputies for the week of June 15, 2026, are entirely suspended or canceled due to force majeure.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez officially announce the dissolution of the Cortes Generales and the calling of early general elections on or before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Pedro Sánchez, in his capacity as President of the Government of Spain, makes an official public announcement or decree proposing the dissolution of the Cortes Generales and calling for early general elections, with the announcement occurring between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026, at 23:59:00 UTC.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement or decree is made by Pedro Sánchez on or before July 10, 2026, at 23:59:00 UTC.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.boe.es/\\nCheck the Official State Gazette (Boletín Oficial del Estado - BOE) for a Royal Decree (Real Decreto) signed by the King and countersigned by the President of the Government dissolving the Cortes Generales and calling elections, published on or before July 11, 2026 (reflecting a decision made on or before July 10, 2026). If such a decree is published, the resolution is YES.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/\\nCheck the official press releases and statements from the Presidency of the Government (La Moncloa). If an official statement confirms that Pedro Sánchez has announced the dissolution of parliament and the calling of elections on or before July 10, 2026, the resolution is YES.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Pedro Sánchez ceases to be the President of the Government of Spain (e.g., due to resignation, a successful motion of no confidence, or death) before any such announcement is made.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:49.245Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"95d2ad2e-b9c7-46fd-bbb5-7203029fcb6e","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4305,"completionTokens":703,"cost":0.012656655,"latencyMs":756,"rawSha256":"afb17a574888bbb1aac32071f56fc664078bbc1bb5b3bfbe1e5e7f15616602bb","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Florentino Pérez win the Real Madrid presidential election scheduled for June 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Florentino Pérez is officially declared the winner of the Real Madrid presidential election held on June 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Enrique Riquelme is officially declared the winner of the Real Madrid presidential election held on June 7, 2026, or the election is officially declared void, postponed past July 3, 2026, or cancelled.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com/ (Read the official announcements section to verify the certified winner of the presidential election held on June 7, 2026. A YES outcome requires an official statement confirming Florentino Pérez as the elected president.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://elpais.com/ (Search for coverage of the Real Madrid presidential election results. A YES outcome requires reports confirming Florentino Pérez won the election.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T20:32:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-15T20:32:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The election is postponed to a date after July 3, 2026.\",\n \"No official or highly credible media confirmation of the election results is available by July 3, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of José Mourinho as their first-team head coach by June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid Club de Fútbol publishes an official statement on its website or verified social media channels announcing that José Mourinho has been hired or signed as the club's first-team head coach.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Real Madrid Club de Fútbol does not publish an official statement announcing the signing of José Mourinho as head coach by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com/ (Read the official communications/news section. A YES outcome requires an official club statement confirming the hiring of José Mourinho as head coach.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.marca.com/ (Search for reports on Real Madrid's official coaching announcements. A YES outcome requires reports citing an official club announcement that Mourinho has signed.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-15T20:32:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-15T20:32:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Real Madrid presidential election scheduled for June 7, 2026, is officially postponed beyond June 15, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:53.041Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a3b18489-03ca-4b7b-8495-3a8f564e2e3c","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4440,"completionTokens":829,"cost":0.01397979,"latencyMs":788,"rawSha256":"ce68e002c6b7e892653def5c18a7d2498d9ce6c407d76fe299386b86ab9a3076","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's legal team file an official appeal against his 30-year prison sentence in the drone case by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official appeal is filed by Yoon Suk Yeol's legal defense team with the Seoul Central District Court or the relevant appellate court in South Korea against the June 12, 2026, verdict and 30-year sentence, as reported by South Korean judicial authorities or major news agencies.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official appeal is filed by Yoon Suk Yeol's legal defense team against the June 12, 2026, verdict and 30-year sentence by the deadline, or his legal team explicitly announces they will not appeal this specific ruling.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://en.yna.co.kr/ (Yonhap News Agency: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol' and 'appeal' or 'drone' to verify if an appeal has been formally lodged with the court.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/ (Reuters: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol' and 'appeal' to confirm whether South Korean court filings show an appeal has been submitted.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Yoon Suk Yeol dies before an appeal is filed or before the deadline.\",\n \"The June 12, 2026, verdict is vacated or annulled by an extraordinary executive action or constitutional court ruling before an appeal can be filed.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Seoul High Court or another South Korean appellate court issue a ruling on Yoon Suk Yeol's appeal of his February 2026 life sentence for rebellion between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"A South Korean appellate court (such as the Seoul High Court) officially issues a verdict/ruling that upholds, overturns, or modifies the February 2026 life imprisonment sentence given to Yoon Suk Yeol for rebellion/insurrection.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No appellate court ruling on the February 2026 rebellion conviction is issued during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://en.yna.co.kr/ (Yonhap News Agency: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol', 'rebellion', 'appeal', or 'Seoul High Court' to check for any appellate ruling on his life sentence.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.apnews.com/ (AP News: Search for 'Yoon Suk Yeol' and 'rebellion' to verify if an appellate court decision has been handed down.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Yoon Suk Yeol dies before the appellate court issues its ruling.\",\n \"The appeal is formally withdrawn by both the defense and prosecution before any ruling is issued.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:05:57.881Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3754,"completionTokens":893,"cost":0.01353132,"latencyMs":793,"rawSha256":"4aa18651a0d2c6c06f3935df15e367a4b92b2f216865a30682151ee65ed4f2f5","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the UK Government officially summon the Russian Ambassador to the UK for a formal diplomatic protest regarding the June 16, 2026 English Channel yacht incident before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) or the UK Ministry of Defence officially announces that the Russian Ambassador to the UK (or the Russian Chargé d'Affaires) has been formally summoned to the Foreign Office specifically to receive a diplomatic protest or demand for explanation regarding the June 16, 2026 incident involving the Admiral Grigorovich and the British-registered yacht.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement of a formal summons of the Russian Ambassador or Chargé d'Affaires regarding this specific incident is made by the UK government, or the UK government explicitly states they will not summon the ambassador over this incident.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-development-office\\nRead the official news, press releases, and statements section. A YES is resolved if a press release or official statement published between June 23, 2026, and July 10, 2026, confirms that the Russian Ambassador (or Chargé d'Affaires) was summoned to the FCDO over the June 16, 2026 English Channel yacht incident. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk\\nRead the UK news section. If the primary source is unavailable or lacks the information, a YES is resolved if the BBC reports that the UK Foreign Office has formally summoned the Russian Ambassador to protest the June 16, 2026 yacht shooting incident. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The UK government or Russian government officially states before the deadline that the entire incident of June 16, 2026 (the alleged warning shots from the Admiral Grigorovich) was a fabrication and never took place.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the captain of the seized tanker MV Smyrtos, Ajay Pant, be granted bail by an English court before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An English court officially grants bail to Ajay Pant, allowing his release from custody pending trial under any conditions.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Ajay Pant remains in custody, or his bail application is formally denied, or no court decision granting him bail is announced.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk\\nSearch for news articles regarding 'Ajay Pant' or 'Smyrtos'. A YES is resolved if a published article confirms that Ajay Pant was granted bail by an English court. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news\\nSearch for news articles regarding 'Ajay Pant' or 'Smyrtos'. A YES is resolved if a published article confirms that Ajay Pant was granted bail by an English court. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"All charges against Ajay Pant are dropped or the case is dismissed before the deadline without a bail determination.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"legal-ruling\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:03.470Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3681,"completionTokens":796,"cost":0.012558645,"latencyMs":1315,"rawSha256":"a355c7caae0a386a36beabbfef0283567fb5cdea36d173d23d05896b7866789c","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement to formally end the war or permanently extend the ceasefire by July 5, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement, treaty, or joint accord that formally ends the state of war or establishes a permanent/indefinite extension of the ceasefire, signed by authorized representatives of both nations.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such bilateral agreement is signed by both nations within the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.state.gov/newsroom/\\nRead the official press releases and statements from the US Department of State. A YES is decided if an official release confirms the signing of a bilateral peace agreement or permanent ceasefire extension with Iran between June 12, 2026, and July 5, 2026. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/\\nRead the Reuters Middle East news coverage. A YES is decided if Reuters reports that a bilateral peace agreement or permanent ceasefire extension has been signed by the US and Iran within the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:37:56Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-05T23:37:56Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The United States or Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign state before the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Kuwait International Airport suspend all commercial passenger flights for a continuous period of 24 hours or more due to military action or drone/missile strikes between June 12, 2026, and July 5, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Kuwait International Airport (KWI) suspends all commercial passenger flight operations (both arrivals and departures) for a continuous period of at least 24 hours, with official statements or credible news reports attributing the suspension to military action, drone strikes, or missile attacks.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Kuwait International Airport does not suspend all commercial passenger flights for a continuous period of 24 hours or more due to military action or strikes during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.dgca.gov.kw/\\nRead the official announcements and press releases from the Kuwait Directorate General of Civil Aviation. A YES is decided if they announce a suspension of all commercial flights lasting 24 continuous hours or more due to military/strike activity. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/\\nRead Reuters Middle East news. A YES is decided if Reuters reports a complete shutdown of Kuwait International Airport's commercial flights for 24 continuous hours or more due to military/strike activity. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:37:56Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-05T23:37:56Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Kuwait International Airport is closed entirely for pre-planned scheduled maintenance or non-military reasons (such as weather) during the entire period.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:08.919Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5991,"completionTokens":845,"cost":0.016425585,"latencyMs":820,"rawSha256":"a75513248521fa8ba60a01c918d28140a8ff00ec25396c984e6b7d78db9eb3c7","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Spain's Social Security affiliation (afiliación media a la Seguridad Social) exceed 22.45 million in the official June 2026 data?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration (Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones) for June 2026 shows that the average number of affiliates (afiliación media) to the Social Security system is strictly greater than 22,450,000.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration for June 2026 shows that the average number of affiliates (afiliación media) to the Social Security system is 22,450,000 or fewer.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.inclusion.gob.es/web/seguridad-social/estadisticas (Read the official press release or statistical report for June 2026, typically published in early July, to find the 'afiliación media' figure).\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.epdata.es/datos/paro-afiliacion-seguridad-social-datos-graficos-estadisticas/288 (Read the updated chart and text for June 2026 average affiliation).\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T07:12:21Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-02T07:12:21Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration does not publish the official June 2026 employment and affiliation data by July 2, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the registered unemployment (paro registrado) in Spain fall below 2.28 million in the official June 2026 data?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy (Ministerio de Trabajo y Economía Social) for June 2026 shows that the total registered unemployment (paro registrado) is strictly less than 2,280,000 people.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy for June 2026 shows that the total registered unemployment (paro registrado) is 2,280,000 people or more.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mites.gob.es/es/estadisticas/index.htm (Read the official press release or statistical report for June 2026, typically published in early July, to find the 'paro registrado' figure).\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.epdata.es/datos/paro-afiliacion-seguridad-social-datos-graficos-estadisticas/288 (Read the updated chart and text for June 2026 registered unemployment).\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-02T07:12:21Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-02T07:12:21Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The Ministry of Labor and Social Economy does not publish the official June 2026 registered unemployment data by July 2, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:13.377Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"ad263723-c083-4fef-bc86-ea94a845100b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3493,"completionTokens":817,"cost":0.012466575,"latencyMs":937,"rawSha256":"9106f44e1fba68c9028cf1705b58d47dcde8b43e1a87ec4b85a7a8c46b2149fd","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Miguel Almirón play in Paraguay's final World Cup Group D match against Australia on June 26, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows Miguel Almirón entering the pitch as a starter or substitute during the match against Australia on June 26, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows Miguel Almirón did not play in the match (e.g., due to serving a suspension for his red card, being an unused substitute, or not being in the squad).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026 - Retrieve the official match report, squad list, or live text commentary for the Paraguay vs. Australia Group D match played on June 26, 2026, to verify if Miguel Almirón played.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.espn.com/soccer/fixtures - Search for the Paraguay vs. Australia match on June 26, 2026, and check the lineups/player statistics to see if Miguel Almirón played.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-27T04:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-27T04:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The match between Paraguay and Australia scheduled for June 26, 2026, is postponed, cancelled, or abandoned before completion.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will another player be shown a straight red card for covering their mouth during any FIFA World Cup match played between June 21, 2026, and June 28, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official FIFA match report or disciplinary record for any World Cup match played between June 21, 2026, and June 28, 2026 (inclusive, UTC) confirms that a player was shown a straight red card specifically for covering their mouth/violating the mouth-covering rule.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No player is shown a straight red card for covering their mouth during any World Cup match played between June 21, 2026, and June 28, 2026 (inclusive, UTC).\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026 - Review match reports, disciplinary summaries, or official news releases for all tournament matches played from June 21 to June 28, 2026.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.espn.com/soccer/ - Search tournament news and match summaries for any reports of a player receiving a red card for covering their mouth during the specified dates.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-29T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-29T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 FIFA World Cup is suspended or cancelled during this period.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:18.248Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"b0699fe8-e4ca-4a5b-bb84-133cfb33fcff","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4685,"completionTokens":821,"cost":0.014272335,"latencyMs":868,"rawSha256":"4bccd6cd46f4ffc465e2065da461e6d9e6f18db4db6e6ea6bbece21805fbf8ee","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the United States and Iran sign a formal peace agreement or capitulation treaty to end their conflict by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The United States and Iran sign a formal, bilateral or multilateral peace agreement, treaty, or capitulation document officially ending their military conflict, as announced by the White House, the US Department of State, or the Iranian government.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such formal peace agreement or treaty is signed by both parties by the deadline, or the scheduled signing is postponed beyond the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.state.gov/press-releases/ (Read the official press releases from the US Department of State. A YES is resolved if a press release confirms the formal signing of a peace treaty or agreement ending the conflict with Iran between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026. Otherwise, NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/ (Read the official statements and releases from the White House Briefing Room. A YES is resolved if an official statement confirms the formal signing of the peace agreement with Iran within the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The conflict is resolved by a UN resolution without direct signature or formal bilateral/multilateral agreement signed by both the US and Iran.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Kevin Warsh deliver a public speech or hold a press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Kevin Warsh, in his official capacity as Chair of the Federal Reserve, delivers a public speech, participates in a public Q&A session, or hosts an official press conference.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Kevin Warsh does not deliver any public speech, participate in a public Q&A, or host a press conference during this period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm (Read the Federal Reserve's official calendar of events and speeches. A YES is resolved if the calendar lists a public speech, testimony, or press conference delivered by Chair Kevin Warsh between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026, and the event is confirmed to have occurred. Otherwise, NO.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm (Read the Federal Reserve's press releases. A YES is resolved if a press release or transcript confirms a public speech or press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh during the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Kevin Warsh resigns or is removed from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:22.946Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"b5d8bf44-cd6e-47bd-b071-907f2174391d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4214,"completionTokens":681,"cost":0.0123255,"latencyMs":824,"rawSha256":"c9f422e4c265733e81580c981463f18edaaac36cc7ff86ff4c51389228abeb4a","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn officially name a successor to the throne between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Bureau of the Royal Household or the Royal Gazette of Thailand officially announces that King Maha Vajiralongkorn has designated or appointed a specific individual as the heir apparent or successor to the throne.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official announcement designating or appointing a successor to the throne is made by the Bureau of the Royal Household or the Royal Gazette of Thailand during the specified period.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.royaloffice.th/ (Read the official announcements and press releases from the Bureau of the Royal Household to see if an heir apparent or successor is officially named.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/ (Search for reports from Reuters confirming whether the Thai King has officially designated a successor during the specified timeframe.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The King of Thailand dies or abdicates before a successor is named, rendering the question moot.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"leadership-change\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the Thai government declare a period of official national mourning of at least 30 days in response to the death of Princess Bajrakitiyabha by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official decree or announcement from the Royal Thai Government (such as the Prime Minister's Office) is published declaring a national mourning period of 30 days or more for Princess Bajrakitiyabha.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official national mourning period declared by the government is less than 30 days, or no official mourning period of 30 days or more is declared by the deadline.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.thaigov.go.th/ (Read the official cabinet resolutions and announcements from the Royal Thai Government regarding the mourning period for the Princess.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.bangkokpost.com/ (Search for news reports detailing the official duration of the national mourning period declared by the Thai government.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No official mourning period of any duration is announced or discussed by the government, or the government is dissolved before making an announcement.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:27.189Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"c34f9464-a311-46ff-a258-356355a987cf","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4742,"completionTokens":831,"cost":0.01444608,"latencyMs":849,"rawSha256":"a44596883df6ea7e01f8cdbf7be02b116bb4e888340f099884f1d99a5429c4dc","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the price of Brent crude oil settle at or above $90.00 per barrel on any trading day between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The daily settle price of the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at or above $90.00 per barrel on any trading day within the specified window.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The daily settle price of the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract remains strictly below $90.00 per barrel on all trading days within the specified window.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/LCO.1 - Read the historical daily settle prices for Brent Crude futures (LCO.1 or equivalent front-month contract) for the period from June 8, 2026, to June 22, 2026. If any day's settle price is $90.00 or higher, resolve YES.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm - Read the daily spot prices for Europe Brent. If any daily price between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026, is $90.00 or higher, resolve YES.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-23T14:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-23T14:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The exchange hosting the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract suspends trading for the entire duration of the specified period.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the United States and Iran officially announce a resumption of direct or mediated peace negotiations between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"An official statement from either the US Department of State, the White House, or the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms that the two nations have resumed active negotiations or exchanges of texts via mediators.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official statement confirming the resumption of negotiations or exchanges of texts via mediators is issued by the specified authorities during the window.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ - Read the published news articles concerning US-Iran relations between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026. If a report confirms an official announcement of resumed talks or text exchanges via mediators, resolve YES.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.state.gov/press-releases/ - Read the official press releases from the US Department of State issued between June 8, 2026, and June 22, 2026. If a release confirms the resumption of talks or mediated exchanges with Iran, resolve YES.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-23T14:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-23T14:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"There is a total breakdown of communications where the Swiss Embassy in Tehran (the US protecting power) ceases all operations.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:32.133Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"cacbbdf5-cdfe-4fd5-b32e-2869810c6dce","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4606,"completionTokens":796,"cost":0.01393227,"latencyMs":1000,"rawSha256":"201adec0d8f9b93f2c15cc712974d90cf12a88102f89f5ebbfdf25157bf69232","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Alexander Zverev be ranked in the top 2 of the ATP singles rankings published during the week of June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official ATP singles rankings published during the week of June 15, 2026 (specifically on June 15, 2026) list Alexander Zverev as rank 1 or rank 2.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official ATP singles rankings published during the week of June 15, 2026 list Alexander Zverev as rank 3 or lower, or do not list him in the top 2.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles - Read the official ATP singles rankings table for the week of June 15, 2026, and check if Alexander Zverev is ranked #1 or #2.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com/ or major sports news outlets like ESPN (https://www.espn.com/tennis/rankings) - Verify the official ATP singles rankings published on or about June 15, 2026.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-18T17:54:50Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-18T17:54:50Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The ATP does not publish any official singles rankings during the week of June 15, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"indicator-threshold\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Flavio Cobolli win an ATP Tour-level singles title between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Flavio Cobolli officially wins at least one ATP Tour-level singles tournament (including ATP 250, 500, 1000, or Grand Slam events) that concludes between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Flavio Cobolli does not win any ATP Tour-level singles tournament concluding in the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.atptour.com/en/players/flavio-cobolli/c0f5/titles-and-finals - Read the 'Titles and Finals' or 'Activity' tab for Flavio Cobolli to see if he won a singles title in a tournament ending between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.flashscore.com/player/cobolli-flavio/Y99v9970/ - Check the player's match history and tournament results for any singles titles won during the specified period.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T17:54:50Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T17:54:50Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"No ATP Tour-level singles tournaments are held or completed during the specified timeframe.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:36.624Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"ccdd5a0b-2814-4c6a-8c75-19a30a756b95","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3188,"completionTokens":956,"cost":0.01325214,"latencyMs":1159,"rawSha256":"6adda38d3071c26ed6f67267f3241dc9e07ae7e279aa5e21cb7ec7b88ce8bffe","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Meta Platforms, Inc. issue an official press release or newsroom statement attributing the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Meta Platforms, Inc. publishes an official statement, blog post, or press release on its official newsroom or corporate website between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly stating that the service outage on June 12, 2026, was caused by a cyberattack, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, or other external malicious actor activity.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Meta Platforms, Inc. does not publish any official statement attributing the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity by July 10, 2026, or explicitly attributes the outage to internal technical issues, configuration changes, or routine maintenance.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://about.fb.com/news/ (Read the official Meta Newsroom articles and updates published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to determine if any statement attributes the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.reuters.com/technology/ (Search for Reuters reports published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, citing official Meta spokespeople or statements regarding the cause of the June 12, 2026 outage.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Meta Platforms, Inc. ceases to exist as a corporate entity before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issue an official advisory or alert mentioning the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"CISA publishes an official alert, advisory, or press release on its official website between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, that explicitly references the Meta (Facebook, Instagram, or Messenger) outage of June 12, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"CISA does not publish any official alert, advisory, or press release referencing the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories (Review all cybersecurity advisories, alerts, and news releases published by CISA between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to see if they explicitly mention the Meta outage of June 12, 2026.)\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news (Review all general news releases and statements published by CISA between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, for any explicit mention of the Meta outage of June 12, 2026.)\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The CISA official website is permanently offline or inaccessible during the entire resolution window.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:42.235Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"cf1415d8-df12-4397-8000-466b2059c81d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3881,"completionTokens":810,"cost":0.012980385,"latencyMs":711,"rawSha256":"f0ceeb5f7ea50fa2f4bc480c772675ceca2786676f8f718e4e732a7f6408c355","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Kaja Kallas issue a public statement retracting, clarifying, or denying the reported comparison of Israel to apartheid-era South Africa by July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The European External Action Service (EEAS) or Kaja Kallas's official social media channels publish an official statement, press release, or transcript in which she explicitly denies making the comparison, retracts the comparison, or clarifies that she did not equate Israel to the apartheid regime.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official statement, press release, or transcript is published by Kaja Kallas or the EEAS, or any statement issued does not address, deny, retract, or clarify the specific comparison.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/high-representative-vice-president_en\\nRead the official press releases and statements section of the High Representative to see if a statement addressing the Mexico/apartheid controversy has been published.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://x.com/kajakallas\\nRead the official X account of Kaja Kallas to see if she has posted a clarification, denial, or retraction regarding the controversy.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Kaja Kallas resigns or is removed from her position as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas hold an official bilateral meeting or joint press conference between June 25, 2026, and July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the European External Action Service officially announces or documents that Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas held an in-person or virtual bilateral meeting, or appeared together in an official joint press conference.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official bilateral meeting or joint press conference between Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas is announced or documented as having occurred during the specified timeframe.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.il/en/departments/ministry_of_foreign_affairs/govil-landing-page\\nRead the official press releases and news updates of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs to verify if a bilateral meeting or joint press conference with Kaja Kallas took place.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/high-representative-vice-president_en\\nRead the official schedule, press releases, and news updates of the EU High Representative to verify if a bilateral meeting or joint press conference with Gideon Sa'ar took place.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Either Gideon Sa'ar or Kaja Kallas officially leaves their respective office before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:46.899Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"d31fd042-542f-42c1-ac33-2b17ff92ba96","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3647,"completionTokens":762,"cost":0.012205215,"latencyMs":834,"rawSha256":"d7b22ee5ec1264cdd0bd409d6ff5e7b00ba83d8bfcbfa335273190187de991a2","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Ibrahima Konaté play in France's second match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows that Ibrahima Konaté entered the pitch (either as a starter or as a substitute) during France's second match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The official match report or lineup published by FIFA shows that Ibrahima Konaté did not play any minutes (remained an unused substitute or was not in the squad) during France's second match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026\\nCheck the official match center and match reports for France's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup; YES if Ibrahima Konaté is listed as having played minutes, NO if he did not play.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.lequipe.fr/\\nCheck the match report and player statistics for France's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup; YES if Konaté is recorded as having played, NO otherwise.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-01T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-01T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"France's second group stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is postponed beyond July 10, 2026\",\n \"France is disqualified or withdraws before playing their second group stage match\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Denzel Dumfries by July 5, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF publishes an official statement on its official website (realmadrid.com) announcing the transfer or signing of Denzel Dumfries.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Real Madrid CF does not publish an official statement on its official website (realmadrid.com) announcing the transfer or signing of Denzel Dumfries.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news\\nRead the official news announcements on the Real Madrid website; YES if an official announcement of Denzel Dumfries's signing is published, NO otherwise.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.marca.com/\\nRead the transfer news section; YES if they report that Real Madrid has officially announced the signing of Denzel Dumfries, NO otherwise.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The player Denzel Dumfries publicly announces his retirement from professional football before the deadline\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"deal-closes\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:51.170Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3762,"completionTokens":882,"cost":0.01344519,"latencyMs":980,"rawSha256":"6e110164eebb0d153ec9f9c913e8b11da064bf7205cb8e99aa4cb9c43514e03e","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Armand Duplantis win his next official pole vault competition held on or after June 14, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Armand Duplantis places first (including tied for first) in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Armand Duplantis competes in but does not place first in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://worldathletics.org/athletes/sweden/armand-duplantis-14634942\\nRead the 'Results' tab for Armand Duplantis's profile to identify the first competition held on or after June 14, 2026, and verify if his final position is 1st.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.diamondleague.com/\\nRead the official Diamond League meeting results or World Athletics news releases to determine the outcome of Duplantis's first competition in this timeframe.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T16:36:03Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T16:36:03Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"Armand Duplantis does not participate in any official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Armand Duplantis set a new official men's pole vault world record of 6.32 meters or higher before July 7, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Armand Duplantis successfully clears a height of 6.32 meters or higher in an official World Athletics-sanctioned competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive, establishing a new world record.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Armand Duplantis does not establish a new official world record of 6.32 meters or higher in any competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://worldathletics.org/records/by-discipline/jumps/pole-vault/outdoor/men\\nRead the official World Athletics men's pole vault world record page to see if the record has been updated to 6.32 m or higher with a performance date between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://worldathletics.org/athletes/sweden/armand-duplantis-14634942\\nRead the 'Results' or 'Honours' tab on Duplantis's official profile to check if any performance between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, is marked as a World Record (WR) of 6.32 m or higher.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-07T16:36:03Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-07T16:36:03Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [],\n \"classTag\": \"record-stands\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:06:55.961Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"e8c18ab5-8b53-4d81-97ad-d854d2a72bc4","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3388,"completionTokens":912,"cost":0.0131571,"latencyMs":789,"rawSha256":"4fe6b43f2980737ab839c4ed932d2f56aadb9604beccb6e64b30fa77b47554dd","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the European Union formally open the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine on Monday, June 15, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The European Union formally opens the first cluster of accession negotiations (the \\\"Fundamentals\\\" cluster) with Ukraine during an intergovernmental conference on June 15, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The scheduled intergovernmental conference on June 15, 2026, is postponed, canceled, or fails to formally open the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine by 23:59 UTC on June 15, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/\\nRead the official press releases published by the Council of the European Union on or immediately after June 15, 2026. If a press release confirms that the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine was formally opened at an intergovernmental conference on June 15, 2026, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en\\nRead the official press releases of the European Commission. If they confirm the formal opening of the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine on June 15, 2026, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-16T12:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-16T12:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The intergovernmental conference is held but the status of the opening of the cluster is legally disputed or ambiguous without clear official confirmation from the EU Council by the deadline.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the European Union formally open any additional negotiation clusters (Clusters 2 through 6) for Ukraine's accession before July 10, 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The European Union formally opens at least one additional negotiation cluster (specifically Cluster 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6) for Ukraine's accession process on or after June 16, 2026, and before 23:59 UTC on July 10, 2026.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The European Union does not formally open any additional negotiation clusters (Clusters 2 through 6) for Ukraine's accession process between June 16, 2026, and 23:59 UTC on July 10, 2026.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/\\nRead the official press releases published by the Council of the European Union between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026. If an official press release confirms the formal opening of any negotiation cluster other than Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) for Ukraine, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en\\nRead the official press releases of the European Commission. If they confirm the formal opening of any negotiation cluster other than Cluster 1 for Ukraine during the specified timeframe, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The accession negotiations with Ukraine are entirely suspended or terminated by the EU before July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:07:00.369Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"f18572bf-525b-4a2f-bb52-3468149a1280","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4700,"completionTokens":739,"cost":0.01356399,"latencyMs":690,"rawSha256":"302e1bbc344f1b2cffdae7e958f5b8b407c7005c5fc3baa8522fa0c8eb9da2dd","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Serena Williams be awarded a wild card entry into the women's singles main draw at Wimbledon 2026?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) officially awards Serena Williams a wild card entry into the women's singles main draw for the 2026 Wimbledon Championships.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"The final women's singles wild card is awarded to another player, or the tournament begins without Serena Williams receiving a singles wild card.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/news/index.html\\nRead the official announcements page for Wimbledon 2026 wild cards. If Serena Williams is listed as a wild card recipient for the Ladies' Singles main draw, resolve YES. If the final spot is allocated to someone else or the tournament starts without her in the singles draw, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com/\\nCheck the official WTA news or player profile for Serena Williams to confirm if she received a singles wild card for Wimbledon 2026.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-29T10:00:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-29T10:00:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 Wimbledon tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Venus Williams win her first-round singles match at the 2026 Bad Homburg Open?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"Venus Williams wins her first-round singles match (either by completing the match or via opponent retirement/walkover after the match starts) at the 2026 Bad Homburg Open.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"Venus Williams loses her first-round singles match, withdraws before the match begins, or does not participate in the singles main draw of the 2026 Bad Homburg Open.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.wtatennis.com/tournament/2033/bad-homburg/draws\\nCheck the singles main draw and match results for the 2026 Bad Homburg Open. If Venus Williams is recorded as winning her first-round match, resolve YES. If she loses or does not play, resolve NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://badhomburg-open.de/en/\\nCheck the official tournament website's news or draws section to verify the outcome of Venus Williams' first-round singles match.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-06-24T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"occurrence\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-06-24T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The 2026 Bad Homburg Open is cancelled or postponed beyond July 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T13:07:04.341Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"draft","attempt":1,"armLabel":"drafter","eventId":"fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3352,"completionTokens":933,"cost":0.01329075,"latencyMs":711,"rawSha256":"e65bcf5281cfa3c3987ea9231126dece3cc0b00627ed99480b069f1c1a4afde2","raw":"{\n \"questions\": [\n {\n \"text\": \"Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the National Crime Agency announce that the sanctioned oil tanker Smyrtos has been officially released from UK custody or anchorage?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), the National Crime Agency (NCA), or the UK Government officially announces that the oil tanker Smyrtos (intercepted on June 14, 2026) has been released from UK custody, detention, or its designated anchorage off the south coast of England, allowing it to resume its voyage.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No such official announcement of the vessel's release is made by the UK MoD, NCA, or UK Government, or the vessel remains detained/monitored under UK custody.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-defence\\nRead the official press releases and news updates on the UK Ministry of Defence homepage. A YES is decided if there is an official statement confirming the release of the vessel 'Smyrtos' from UK custody or anchorage. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/news\\nRead the official news releases of the National Crime Agency. A YES is decided if an official statement confirms the release of the vessel 'Smyrtos' from UK custody or anchorage. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The vessel Smyrtos is proven to have sunk, been destroyed, or suffered a catastrophic accident before any decision on its release or continued detention is announced.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"policy-decision\"\n },\n {\n \"text\": \"Will Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issue an official press release or statement on its website specifically condemning or demanding the release of the vessel Smyrtos?\",\n \"yesCondition\": \"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation publishes an official statement, press release, or briefing transcript on its official website (mid.ru) that explicitly mentions the vessel 'Smyrtos' and condemns its interception by the UK or demands its release.\",\n \"noCondition\": \"No official statement, press release, or briefing transcript mentioning 'Smyrtos' and condemning its interception or demanding its release is published on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website.\",\n \"primarySource\": \"https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/\\nRead the English-language press releases and statements on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs news portal. A YES is decided if any official statement or briefing transcript published between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly names 'Smyrtos' and protests, condemns, or demands its release. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"fallbackSource\": \"https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/\\nRead the Russian-language press releases and statements on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs news portal. A YES is decided if any official statement or briefing transcript published between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly names 'Smyrtos' (Смиртос) and protests, condemns, or demands its release. Otherwise, NO.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"announcementRule\": \"announcement\",\n \"graceRule\": \"2026-07-10T23:59:00Z\",\n \"voidConditions\": [\n \"The official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (mid.ru) is completely inaccessible and offline for the entire period from June 21, 2026, to July 10, 2026.\"\n ],\n \"classTag\": \"competition-outcome\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"wave":2,"modelId":"google/gemini-3.5-flash","provider":"Google"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:10:00.987Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"identity-assert","ok":true} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:10:32.097Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"identity-assert","ok":true} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:10:36.761Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4834,"completionTokens":614,"cost":0.00365484042,"latencyMs":5824,"rawSha256":"39ae3ae91e346961512af6bac75c2398f833d36d22c26b8dfa812632fa7a1a6a","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-05d64025-1\", \"probability\": 0.15, \"rationale\": \"Given Eriksen's second on-field collapse in 5 years, retirement is plausible but no announcement is imminent. In one month, he'll likely undergo medical evaluation before deciding; the absence of immediate signals suggests a low short-term likelihood.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:10:59.065Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5128,"completionTokens":1727,"cost":0.0097221564,"latencyMs":1339,"rawSha256":"64c8d6cea22afd68b7f620251d90ecfbd9cf2e3e9830d40df37e40e400246d37","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-05d64025-1\", \"probability\": 0.35, \"rationale\": \"Eriksen just suffered a second on-field cardiac incident, which significantly increases the likelihood of medical advice strongly favoring retirement and a prompt announcement within the one-month window. However, his quick recovery, the apparent proper functioning of his pacemaker, and his demonstrated resilience after the 2021 incident suggest he may still attempt to continue or delay a final decision beyond July 7.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"SiliconFlow"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:11:38.404Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4753,"completionTokens":1217,"cost":0.0052386345,"latencyMs":2737,"rawSha256":"e882b8323c466bfc45ef5b7bba343678811834fff1d4f4804f3d2a712e07b2e8","raw":"\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-05d64025-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.90,\n \"rationale\": \"Eriksen suffered a second on-field collapse today, which is a severe medical red flag that typically forces athletes to retire immediately for safety reasons. Given his age and the high likelihood of medical advice against continuing, an announcement before the July 7 deadline is highly probable.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Novita"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:12:04.800Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5270,"completionTokens":1050,"cost":0.0044434467,"latencyMs":1416,"rawSha256":"daa4fd556c9c2d37a5979e861f8a00043b90f4fa182ec9ee4d5a4d6f2ec7c4ff","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-05d64025-1\", \"probability\": 0.20, \"rationale\": \"After his second on-field collapse on June 7, Eriksen recovered quickly and has not announced retirement as of June 22. Given the short deadline and his previous return from a similar incident, an immediate retirement announcement is unlikely, but medical advice could prompt a quick decision.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:12:31.822Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5771,"completionTokens":3771,"cost":0.023655753,"latencyMs":1272,"rawSha256":"059d23bc1461e59d488115dd3616711cfbd46cdb42da0724e340159e1bfb57dc","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-05d64025-1\", \"probability\": 0.25, \"rationale\": \"While Eriksen's second on-field collapse creates serious pressure for a medical retirement decision before the 2026-27 pre-season, his stable recovery, history of returning from a more severe 2021 cardiac arrest, and the absence of any public retirement deliberation as of early June make a formal announcement by July 7 unlikely but plausible.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Together"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:12:58.148Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4984,"completionTokens":1984,"cost":0.00703494,"latencyMs":2322,"rawSha256":"d69d32439010cb68f90045d4e73aeea07e9662ed4f8703878384147d462d399c","raw":"\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-05d64025-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.20,\n \"rationale\": \"Eriksen collapsed recently (June 7), and while a second incident raises serious concerns about his career longevity, medical investigations and decision-making processes typically take longer than the remaining two weeks before the deadline. The current reports indicate he is stable and in good spirits, suggesting a definitive retirement announcement by July 7 is unlikely despite the health scare.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Novita"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:13:47.987Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3674,"completionTokens":911,"cost":0.00331359336,"latencyMs":1902,"rawSha256":"94c7ee7ac7e56f891cdbe6260c9feb69addad0b0e9ebd3c567540cddf5f203ea","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-12b79b13-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.65,\n \"rationale\": \"Initial reports suggest the drone likely originated from Russia, and the Latvian military has hinted at Russian involvement. However, past incidents involved Ukrainian drones that strayed, and official confirmation requires forensic analysis, which may not be conclusive by the deadline.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:14:10.750Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4134,"completionTokens":4718,"cost":0.01724890464,"latencyMs":1386,"rawSha256":"d28e3124c952176ecb0908997c9161118c8a27b9cf6fd6cd8d574d4538c36292","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-12b79b13-1\", \"probability\": 0.45, \"rationale\": \"Although media reports quote an army spokesman telling Reuters the drone came from Russia, the Latvian Armed Forces' official social media posts only described it as a foreign object affected by Russian electromagnetic warfare without explicit attribution, and recent regional incidents involving misidentified Ukrainian drones suggest authorities may remain cautious or silent on official channels. With a month to investigate, there is a moderate chance they will eventually publish explicit confirmation, but also a significant possibility they will not attribute it to Russia to avoid escalation or because the origin remains ambiguous.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:15:23.272Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3678,"completionTokens":91,"cost":0.0017003052,"latencyMs":731,"rawSha256":"7471afaaff7b6c3daa5e119bb94d021db0dbf59cea8f590dbead0d14b1882c5e","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-12b79b13-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.75,\n \"rationale\": \"Multiple sources report the drone entered from Russia and was described as Russian by some outlets, but Latvian officials have not yet explicitly confirmed its origin. Given the context and typical attribution patterns, official confirmation is likely within the deadline.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:15:27.404Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4379,"completionTokens":1331,"cost":0.00424508931,"latencyMs":798,"rawSha256":"68f3117832a49e1bc05b5e121278f64dbef28591da79c31a13dbfd3c683b6b18","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-12b79b13-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.15,\n \"rationale\": \"Early official statements (June 8) indicate Latvian authorities cannot yet determine the drone's origin, and the incident pattern—drones veering off course due to Russian electronic warfare—strongly suggests a Ukrainian drone, as seen in recent similar cases. While investigation could theoretically identify it as Russian, the low likelihood and precedent for attributing such stray drones to Ukraine make a YES resolution improbable.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:16:01.942Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4520,"completionTokens":2283,"cost":0.01329174,"latencyMs":1758,"rawSha256":"5ef3c7c6a8226afae2ed60d71fc7075338277cee4777ef0c46a4366a74e79b7f","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-12b79b13-1\", \"probability\": 0.10, \"rationale\": \"Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis stated on June 8 that determining the drone's country of origin or type was not possible, and subsequent reporting indicates it was likely a Ukrainian drone diverted by Russian electronic warfare, making an explicit official attribution to Russia by July 8 unlikely.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Cloudflare"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:17:31.593Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4309,"completionTokens":88,"cost":0.0019637541,"latencyMs":712,"rawSha256":"588b4714adc398c2a227f049f90cebf4749a684ce766af6db39a925d807e4a05","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-12b79b13-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.15,\n \"rationale\": \"Latvian officials have explicitly stated they cannot determine the drone's origin and attributed its entry to Russian electronic warfare without claiming Russian ownership. Recent precedent shows Baltic states often attribute such drones to Ukraine when origin is unclear.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:17:33.911Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4809,"completionTokens":988,"cost":0.00409074435,"latencyMs":9272,"rawSha256":"c184d192304adfec5b1154c71c8c2f1e38362373ec516b5fc15c18e75dea12be","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.98,\n \"rationale\": \"The European Parliament approved the regulations today, and EU member states have already endorsed the deal. The Council's formal adoption is a procedural rubber stamp expected within days to meet the July 4 deadline, making it highly likely by July 3.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.95,\n \"rationale\": \"After Council approval, publication in the Official Journal is a routine step to enact the regulations. Given the urgency to meet the July 4 deadline, publication by July 10 is almost certain.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:18:09.152Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5100,"completionTokens":3508,"cost":0.01594197,"latencyMs":942,"rawSha256":"c5df79f7446b94d8a1bc8408bad3f407aa9cbd268d85a9b53c09324f0ff0714e","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-1\", \"probability\": 0.90, \"rationale\": \"The European Parliament approved the deal on June 16 and EU capitals have already endorsed it, leaving only a formal Council rubber stamp; with the agreement targeting entry into force by July 4 and July 3 being the last working day before that Saturday deadline, adoption by then is highly likely but not certain due to potential procedural delays.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-2\", \"probability\": 0.94, \"rationale\": \"Since the regulations target entry into force by July 4 and Official Journal publication typically follows within days of Council adoption, the July 10 deadline provides ample buffer; even if Council approval slips slightly past July 3, publication is still very likely by July 10.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:18:42.498Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4653,"completionTokens":151,"cost":0.0022187187,"latencyMs":275,"rawSha256":"2e3d13e86b1875d65233f9cb175e1e4cdbcc5bc30959ac18dfb6d7b21198b4f5","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.85,\n \"rationale\": \"The European Parliament has approved the deal, and multiple sources indicate member states already endorsed it, with formal Council approval expected before Trump's July 4 deadline to avoid higher tariffs.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.80,\n \"rationale \" : \"Publication in the Official Journal typically follows Council approval within days, and the July 4 deadline pressure suggests rapid processing, though administrative delays could push it past July 10.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:18:44.618Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6005,"completionTokens":1400,"cost":0.00530862255,"latencyMs":1832,"rawSha256":"67ae2ad4ec410cf05a2e4785f216bd1e02732637745b769d8720766b1de86b4d","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.98,\n \"rationale\": \"EU capitals have already endorsed the deal and multiple sources report formal Council approval is expected on June 26, well before the July 3 deadline. The process is a formality, and the US deadline of July 4 adds pressure to ensure timely adoption.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.95,\n \"rationale\": \"Once adopted by the Council, publication in the Official Journal typically follows within days. With the US deadline looming, the EU is motivated to complete all steps quickly, making publication by July 10 highly probable.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:19:26.034Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6275,"completionTokens":5251,"cost":0.02402603775,"latencyMs":3631,"rawSha256":"13ceefad9c6bb1f7de2885836616c7d77c05120b05aa626edbf88c2a66630240","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-1\", \"probability\": 0.90, \"rationale\": \"EU capitals had already politically endorsed the agreement before the June 16 parliamentary vote, and multiple outlets expected the Council’s formal rubber stamp within days—specifically by June 26—making adoption by the July 3 deadline highly likely.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-2\", \"probability\": 0.93, \"rationale\": \"Official Journal publication routinely follows Council adoption within a few days, and the July 10 deadline provides ample buffer even if the Council’s expected late-June adoption slips slightly into early July.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"StreamLake"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:23:07.598Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5792,"completionTokens":179,"cost":0.0027518238,"latencyMs":738,"rawSha256":"55f48b575c02c4fbcde7af497eb0e41d669fc1e662b6c7ebd464c5e545b4475d","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.75,\n \"rationale\": \"The European Parliament approved the deal on June 16, 2026, and multiple sources indicate the Council's formal approval is expected in the coming days or weeks, with one source specifically mentioning June 26 as the likely date for the final nod.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-16d4db8b-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.70,\n \"rationale \" : \"After Council approval, publication in the Official Journal is typically a formality that follows within days. Given the tight July 4 deadline mentioned in the articles and the expected Council approval by late June, publication by July 10 seems likely.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:23:13.122Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5563,"completionTokens":1059,"cost":0.00559668384,"latencyMs":3994,"rawSha256":"d28eba5f6c228e928debdfa92f6b955d909966e84b389c4e1d9e0e09d17b71e2","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-2b08e558-1\", \"probability\": 0.40, \"rationale\": \"The national annual CPI remained at 3.2% in May for three straight months, with rising core inflation (3.0%) and upward pressure from transport/tourism, but offset by moderating food prices and government energy measures. A slight uptick to 3.3% in June is plausible but not assured given recent stability.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:23:45.185Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6008,"completionTokens":3150,"cost":0.01277487288,"latencyMs":629,"rawSha256":"225ac48c315a3bb1ad0615415179d8b33fe48b0dd52340bdb42ef21f19d55f68","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-2b08e558-1\", \"probability\": 0.43, \"rationale\": \"Spain's headline CPI has been stable at 3.2% for two months, restrained by falling energy prices and easing food costs despite core inflation accelerating to 3.0%. While transport and tourism remain elevated due to the Iran conflict, the recent monthly moderation to +0.1% and mixed regional data make a jump to 3.3% somewhat less likely than a flat or lower print, though upside risks remain material.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:24:43.701Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5299,"completionTokens":112,"cost":0.0024265395,"latencyMs":642,"rawSha256":"f233305aaced2e0cff3a0742c40279a9a3a8067dd5e7d5560095d0ea78d44554","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-2b08e558-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.45,\n \"rationale\": \"Spain's annual CPI has remained stable at 3.2% for three consecutive months through May 2026, with inflation pressures from transport and tourism offset by declines in clothing and food prices. Given this stability and ongoing geopolitical shocks, the probability of reaching 3.3% or higher in June appears slightly below even odds.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:24:46.012Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5742,"completionTokens":900,"cost":0.00454714722,"latencyMs":1627,"rawSha256":"f8ba7b7cefd2a3957b11087b813444c45d88407bcae778c563ca5f7a72095f09","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-2b08e558-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.92,\n \"rationale\": \"BBVA Research forecasts June inflation at 3.6–3.7%, and strong upward pressures from energy (Iran war) and services make a rise from May's 3.2% highly probable; the flash estimate is very likely to reach 3.3% or higher.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:25:14.349Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6344,"completionTokens":5621,"cost":0.0237563172,"latencyMs":1764,"rawSha256":"5138edc79aae1b6d7765d8fdfbcf03057855e7799c0f68f2c78a56b2b495eeb0","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-2b08e558-1\", \"probability\": 0.75, \"rationale\": \"BBVA Research explicitly forecasts June CPI at 3.6–3.7%, while Funcas projects a 3.4% annual average with the sharpest 0.8pp jump delayed until July. With May inflation already at 3.2% and core pressures accelerating, the balance of risks favors a June flash estimate of at least 3.3%, though base effects and the exact timing of fuel-price pass-through create meaningful downside uncertainty.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"SiliconFlow"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:27:12.366Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5545,"completionTokens":1477,"cost":0.006510636,"latencyMs":2185,"rawSha256":"bab6bf9dd3d183a12bdcac3f08d6644173deecea9b6c134db0fd750664209735","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-2b08e558-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.65,\n \"rationale\": \"Spain's inflation has remained at 3.2% for three consecutive months, with underlying inflation rising to 3% and experts forecasting a potential increase to 3.6-3.7% in June due to the withdrawal of fuel tax relief and ongoing geopolitical tensions.\",\n \"deadlineUtc\": \"2026-07-05T23:59:00Z\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"AtlasCloud"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:27:48.803Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4557,"completionTokens":756,"cost":0.00442211616,"latencyMs":1418,"rawSha256":"2ed4b8ec9bc37b7c17f178cb2d0b9b9684e9332195381ebfa1f8284796875d5a","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-2e4a0893-1\", \"probability\": 0.82, \"rationale\": \"Xi's visit is confirmed and both sides seek to project unity; despite North Korea's firm nuclear stance, a joint statement focusing on economic cooperation and bilateral ties is customary and highly likely.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:28:04.724Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":false,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":0,"completionTokens":0,"cost":0,"latencyMs":300003,"rawSha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","raw":"","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:33:04.728Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4788,"completionTokens":7962,"cost":0.041158854,"latencyMs":918,"rawSha256":"6c1aef13e0a642639418a281c015d759e32eb398d58692917c89a6968afce573","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-2e4a0893-1\", \"probability\": 0.10, \"rationale\": \"The articles indicate Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea begins on June 8, 2026, so any joint statement would typically be published during or immediately after the trip, before the June 14–July 7 resolution window. 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Recent articles emphasize the visit's significance and North Korea's focus on strengthening alliances, making a joint statement likely.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"AtlasCloud"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:34:03.675Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":3184,"completionTokens":2001,"cost":0.00433251126,"latencyMs":1744,"rawSha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","raw":"","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:34:52.460Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3184,"completionTokens":713,"cost":0.0027794151,"latencyMs":1256,"rawSha256":"5e03e87b34fc7357fb3f74ee285406df61aa512cea87b676528620890bd16463","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-2e4a0893-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.85,\n \"rationale\": \"Xi's state visit is described as 'historic' with plans to set a new direction for bilateral ties, making a joint statement highly likely. 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His defiant stance and the short timeframe (until July 10) make his removal likely, though resistance or procedural delays could allow him to survive.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:04.212Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4095,"completionTokens":110,"cost":0.0019105515,"latencyMs":298,"rawSha256":"76647ebdb9d5fe88e6c54bb803847fd5dd6da3c39cf526abf3981e2e86530daf","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-7ab6c1d8-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.85,\n \"rationale\": \"Multiple credible sources report a verbal agreement between Real Madrid and Chelsea for Cucurella, with Fabrizio Romano and others confirming the deal will be formalized after the World Cup. The July 10 deadline provides sufficient time for the official announcement, though no formal confirmation has yet been made by either club.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:56.621Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":4376,"completionTokens":1324,"cost":0.00783684,"latencyMs":1130,"rawSha256":"5a4438ce71d89530fabba97b78313bc12f7103de93b29a8bc7f3d9abd8e59279","raw":" ```json\n{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-6c2b0c97-2\", \"probability\": 0.99, \"rationale\": \"Pre-weekend industry projections estimated Toy Story 5 would open to $150–175 million domestically, which would easily make it the biggest debut of 2026, and Variety explicitly reported it would 'rule over North American charts.' With no major competing releases mentioned and a projected gross far ahead of any other film, it is virtually certain to be #1 for the June 19–21 weekend.\"}]}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:30.998Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"37435e85-30c2-46e3-a923-6fae6a7247e9","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":4821,"completionTokens":2293,"cost":0.00940464756,"latencyMs":1080,"rawSha256":"d858082ccce33c80b56fa9a0f94063742177f4cfef395c0c5d00e72a3f53bd63","raw":"```json\n{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-37435e85-2\", \"probability\": 0.05, \"rationale\": \"Ukrainian authorities and the IAEA immediately confirmed radiation levels at the CSFSF remained within established safety limits after the June 7 strike, which hit an empty reception building containing no spent fuel and caused a quickly extinguished fire. Given the absence of a radiological source in the damaged structure and the current stable readings, an official report of exceeded limits within the next month is highly unlikely, though not impossible if unforeseen structural degradation or subsequent events alter conditions.\"}]}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:46.139Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3762,"completionTokens":571,"cost":0.0025907409,"latencyMs":1128,"rawSha256":"32e146a3968b9730c0a9de3063eb64f2d2e9e9d01a1c0937777d1f03369b6b9a","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-481c3dfd-1\", \"probability\": 0.95, \"rationale\": \"Article 0 explicitly states that a ticker-tape parade and City Hall ceremony honoring the Knicks has been announced for June 18, 2026, which is well before the July 10 deadline. There is no information suggesting this event will be canceled or postponed.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:56.480Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4412,"completionTokens":603,"cost":0.00338714838,"latencyMs":2397,"rawSha256":"c49647af69c01c96a6e04fc50d7cc786ded1260ae6e1623ae71856145b49bd8f","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-6c2b0c97-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.99,\n \"rationale\": \"Toy Story 5 is opening this weekend with projected $150M+ domestic gross, far exceeding any competition; no other major releases are mentioned, making it virtually certain to be #1.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:07.654Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5107,"completionTokens":410,"cost":0.00431864928,"latencyMs":702,"rawSha256":"dc3ec22b08274c192a9a4e5f4abff5030ba6b7423781eec993a502621daedab3","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-7ab6c1d8-1\", \"probability\": 1.00, \"rationale\": \"Multiple credible sources report that Real Madrid officially announced the signing of Marc Cucurella on June 15, 2026, which is before the July 10 deadline. This satisfies the YES condition.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:36.799Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":5070,"completionTokens":1801,"cost":0.0077967846,"latencyMs":1350,"rawSha256":"b6a325696f4e55711727d72f19a3e2feb8469ebd4029cf643fb0dcc69aa7228e","raw":"```json\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-481c3dfd-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.95,\n \"rationale\": \"The Knicks won the 2026 NBA championship on June 13, and New York City has a strong tradition of holding ticker-tape parades for its major sports champions. With nearly four weeks until the July 10 deadline and immense fan demand after a 53-year drought, a public civic celebration is highly probable, though not guaranteed until formally announced.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:52.351Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5434,"completionTokens":762,"cost":0.00506987712,"latencyMs":2088,"rawSha256":"2349a61e914f72718caef4c4b3dded4f3df3a0e9d76123977d0c5d23a4d2766f","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-6c2b0c97-2\", \"probability\": 0.95, \"rationale\": \"Toy Story 5 is a major Pixar/Disney release with strong franchise legacy, positive early reviews from June 16, and no indication of significant competing openings on the same weekend. Historically, all Toy Story sequels have opened at #1 domestically.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:00.201Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":4541,"completionTokens":2224,"cost":0.010632897,"latencyMs":486,"rawSha256":"df9b1e374ba5836860fa7e775747fb44edf207a2b6f37dfe1340a9fd83b2e74d","raw":"{\"forecasts\":\":[{\",\":\":\"q-7ab6c1d8-1\",\"probability\":0.1,\"rationale\":\"Multiple reputable sources report a verbal agreement is in place but explicitly state the official announcement will be made after the 2026 World Cup, which ends on July 19—after the July 10 deadline. While an early announcement remains possible, the consistent reporting makes it unlikely.\"}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"ModelRun"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:57.923Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4220,"completionTokens":801,"cost":0.00351014202,"latencyMs":1162,"rawSha256":"de6a8235d83b552bf292266b4e27b2a1334773bb2b5080d6dc8df2a46e9aa5dd","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-7ab6c1d8-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.05,\n \"rationale\": \"Multiple reliable sources report a verbal agreement, but all indicate the official announcement will come after the World Cup (which ends July 19, past the July 10 deadline). Real Madrid typically avoids mid-tournament announcements for active players.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:43.018Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3849,"completionTokens":4110,"cost":0.0170610165,"latencyMs":370,"rawSha256":"c7f08071f6c1ef44c903d802b0755786bc062f28923b542b91cc0019b5769d24","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-481c3dfd-1\", \"probability\": 0.99, \"rationale\": \"Article 0 explicitly reports that an official ticker-tape parade and City Hall ceremony were announced for June 18, 2026, which falls before the July 10 deadline. Given that today is June 27 and no reports of cancellation or postponement were provided, the event has almost certainly already occurred as planned.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:30.999Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"3d03e1d7-2579-4036-ac20-5a9cc5267b86","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":7887,"completionTokens":4981,"cost":0.022231737,"latencyMs":1573,"rawSha256":"73ea531aaf635c60b80ee8560c73ae646f54e6807cd451336bfe058181445505","raw":"{\"forecasts\":\":[{\",\":\":\"q-3d03e1d7-1\",\"probability\":0.90,\"rationale\":\"Sybiha publicly promised to return his Polish Order of Merit and multiple reputable Polish outlets report that he and other top Ukrainian officials have already renounced their Polish decorations in solidarity with Zelenskyy. Given the escalating diplomatic dispute and the fact that the deadline is over two weeks away, official confirmation of his returned or formally renounced award is highly likely.\"}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"ModelRun"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:10.867Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5477,"completionTokens":1774,"cost":0.0101565585,"latencyMs":298,"rawSha256":"9cc3fea944523336cd4b77eb767c0776f9d29cbd9b234bceb220dce47885c0d9","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-7ab6c1d8-1\", \"probability\": 1.00, \"rationale\": \"Multiple reputable sources including Reuters and BBC report that Real Madrid officially announced Marc Cucurella's signing from Chelsea on June 15, 2026. Since this date is well before the July 10, 2026 deadline, the event has already occurred.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:30.999Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"3d03e1d7-2579-4036-ac20-5a9cc5267b86","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5369,"completionTokens":4424,"cost":0.0193156425,"latencyMs":2533,"rawSha256":"332a7137d1a9fafdf33cccc61efa111508150f40d5ab9137276274b121b64e76","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-3d03e1d7-1\", \"probability\": 0.78, \"rationale\": \"Sybiha explicitly wrote on Facebook that he sees no possibility of retaining his 2022 Polish Order of Merit and pledged to return it to Poland \\\"in the near future,\\\" making official confirmation within three weeks probable. 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No indication exists that he will announce dissolution by July 10, 2026.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"AtlasCloud"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:45.125Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4912,"completionTokens":129,"cost":0.0036449919,"latencyMs":674,"rawSha256":"dc3966c3728643ae48e1445ea5bdc41e810fd9c986c81b7172153a607c8592a5","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-a52acc1b-1\", \"probability\": 0.35, \"rationale\": \"The incident occurred outside UK territorial waters (20 nautical miles south of Isle of Wight), no injuries or damage occurred, and UK officials are already treating it as an isolated episode unrelated to the recent tanker seizure. While the incident is serious, the UK's measured response so far ('investigating reports') and the fact that warning shots at sea in international waters have ambiguous legal standing suggest formal diplomatic summoning is less likely than not, though tensions over Russian shadow fleet activity keep it plausible.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Decart"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:09.712Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"37435e85-30c2-46e3-a923-6fae6a7247e9","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4821,"completionTokens":1905,"cost":0.00796211856,"latencyMs":642,"rawSha256":"71bc376959f361fa8935c5e1bb044dd2e6fa842384372a2fe4ef9291d068548d","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-37435e85-2\", \"probability\": 0.05, \"rationale\": \"Ukrainian authorities (Energoatom) and the IAEA already confirm radiation levels remain within established limits after the June 7 strike, the damaged building contained no spent fuel, and the resulting fire was extinguished quickly, so a subsequent official report of exceeded limits within one month is unlikely but not impossible.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:46.378Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4254,"completionTokens":97,"cost":0.001955844,"latencyMs":440,"rawSha256":"5f6b76a052b483728a38ea2c6a8b7cb10bc4661c5bc94da1f8e90fc165b6d28c","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a52acc1b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.65,\n \"rationale\": \"The UK MoD is investigating the incident and has not ruled out a diplomatic response, but they currently treat it as isolated and unrelated to recent sanctions enforcement. Historical precedent suggests summoning is likely for such incidents, but the short timeframe and initial cautious tone reduce certainty.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:16.443Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":5070,"completionTokens":1814,"cost":0.0078408,"latencyMs":1353,"rawSha256":"d9b007f367adb4f306ffe2643205c6dde4f5fdd219a8c8831282f62628aa7f48","raw":"```json\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-481c3dfd-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.98,\n \"rationale\": \"The Knicks clinched the 2026 NBA title on June 13, and major-market teams virtually always hold public victory parades within days or weeks of winning. With nearly a month until the July 10 deadline and massive fan enthusiasm after a 53-year drought, a civic celebration in New York City is overwhelmingly likely.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:14.998Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4345,"completionTokens":1426,"cost":0.00524402208,"latencyMs":1233,"rawSha256":"1e530ce58459246530ae43fb60aef90b0cbfcbf791f1d7247e64f14af1884209","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.95,\n \"rationale\": \"Junts ha presentado una enmienda para exigir la disolución de las Cortes, y tanto el PP como Vox la apoyan; con sus 177 escaños suman mayoría absoluta para aprobarla en la votación del jueves 18 de junio, según confirman múltiples fuentes.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.30,\n \"rationale\": \"Aunque la presión del Congreso será intensa, la moción no es vinculante y Sánchez ha mostrado resistencia histórica a convocar elecciones anticipadas; además, podría intentar mantener la legislatura con apoyos puntuales del PNV u otros, por lo que la probabilidad de un anuncio antes del 10 de julio es moderada.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:23.354Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6184,"completionTokens":1165,"cost":0.00620364096,"latencyMs":1203,"rawSha256":"0b1860ac0edea622469f21dcfbe9f96928d82cb3b3a11b62d95ac4de22fb8d10","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.02,\n \"rationale\": \"The Mesa of the Congress blocked the PP and Junts amendments demanding elections for the June 18 plenary, leaving no such proposal on the agenda. With no alternative motion reported, a vote explicitly urging dissolution during this week is extremely unlikely.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.07,\n \"rationale\": \"Articles confirm Sánchez's firm refusal to advance elections, intending to govern until summer 2027. Despite Senate pressure, a unilateral official dissolution announcement by July 10 appears very improbable.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:42:53.213Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"37435e85-30c2-46e3-a923-6fae6a7247e9","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6309,"completionTokens":1536,"cost":0.010166904,"latencyMs":2889,"rawSha256":"c2a781341a33dc8be99c20d97b7d11bfe71b98d512efb5644a6a4b347faaf788","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-37435e85-2\", \"probability\": 0.02, \"rationale\": \"Energoatom and the IAEA both confirmed immediately after the June 7 strike that radiation levels remained within normal limits and no radioactive contamination occurred, as the struck building was empty and actual spent fuel was stored hundreds of meters away. With IAEA inspectors already on-site verifying no contamination, the chance that SNRIU or Energoatom will reverse this assessment and report exceeded limits by early July is negligible.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Novita"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:47.027Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3800,"completionTokens":647,"cost":0.00371169216,"latencyMs":2519,"rawSha256":"c1c7610a87a360b3c319ae14d0b831c06f365d87f80e9f7394cdc1d0e62f05fe","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-a52acc1b-1\", \"probability\": 0.20, \"rationale\": \"The UK government initially characterized the incident as a minor nautical event, minimizing its significance. While public and political pressure could prompt a summons, the current stance suggests a low probability of formal diplomatic escalation.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:00.668Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3861,"completionTokens":97,"cost":0.0017885439,"latencyMs":251,"rawSha256":"61661e6e3534e52102e9a47f72105530ae585f4dd8e879ff9509b99f3b936ea8","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a6d095e7-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.15,\n \"rationale\": \"Recent articles indicate ongoing military escalations and stalled ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, with both sides exchanging strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. The fragile ceasefire is under strain, and no progress toward a bilateral agreement is reported despite Trump's optimistic statements.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:44.914Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4461,"completionTokens":643,"cost":0.00346492377,"latencyMs":1904,"rawSha256":"a922344e050e867eeb99ae7096a1e404aa38616641cc27055fe0049a2d12f0e7","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a52acc1b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.65,\n \"rationale\": \"The incident is a serious provocation near UK waters, and the UK has a history of summoning the Russian ambassador for such acts. However, the UK may opt for a measured response pending investigation, and the incident occurred in international waters, reducing the certainty of a formal summons.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:55.901Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3966,"completionTokens":586,"cost":0.00374375232,"latencyMs":673,"rawSha256":"6cb434f6cf8819cd0dec1493ba45c9cada03cf9006f3d232f795f5be5b1f53f1","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a6d095e7-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.10,\n \"rationale\": \"Despite a fragile ceasefire since early April, negotiations are stalled, recent military exchanges continue, and Trump has hinted at alternative outcomes, making a permanent agreement by the July 5 deadline unlikely.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:42.103Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5884,"completionTokens":516,"cost":0.0033987888,"latencyMs":1056,"rawSha256":"06d0aea8112ae83d49c560d5154ebf1614ce94a4ffced24ff09d639c8002bd5f","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-1\", \"probability\": 0.05, \"rationale\": \"The Congress's Mesa has already blocked the PP and Junts amendments from being voted on, and there's no indication this decision will be reversed during the specified week.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-2\", \"probability\": 0.15, \"rationale\": \"Despite growing political pressure from multiple parties including key government partner PNV, Sánchez has consistently stated his intention to serve his full term until 2027.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:04.331Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4696,"completionTokens":90,"cost":0.0021319452,"latencyMs":578,"rawSha256":"3a16bb9796c34e99641b715a335bc666836ec0aa061b05e55371356107288e23","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a6d095e7-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.05,\n \"rationale\": \"The articles indicate ongoing military escalation and stalled peace talks between the US and Iran, with both sides exchanging strikes and negotiations at a deadlock. There is no evidence of imminent bilateral agreement signing, and the timeframe is very short.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:07.428Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6591,"completionTokens":162,"cost":0.0030626739,"latencyMs":239,"rawSha256":"560eb9f9d308aa73f383741922c31ae4511045d37ad6decb4e49127a03270713","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a79d1f07-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.85,\n \"rationale\": \"Current affiliation is 22.34 million in May 2026, and June typically sees increases due to seasonal employment trends, making exceeding 22.45 million likely.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a79d1f07-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.15,\n \"rationale\": \"Unemployment is at 2.32 million in May 2026, and while June usually sees declines, the drop would need to be over 40,000 to fall below 2.28 million, which seems unlikely given recent trends.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:01.782Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4797,"completionTokens":512,"cost":0.00424141344,"latencyMs":2964,"rawSha256":"6b860e26f740419c780cf5cf5d0ddc3f7eda145d1eb223de2feeb40d52015705","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-a6d095e7-1\", \"probability\": 0.02, \"rationale\": \"The US-Iran conflict remains active with ongoing strikes and stalled indirect talks as of June 7, 2026; no bilateral agreement seems imminent, and the deadline is only two weeks away, making a formal deal highly unlikely.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:09.130Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4376,"completionTokens":1666,"cost":0.0084835278,"latencyMs":355,"rawSha256":"d72a42609eedac99a1f882b542523fcfe81bf19969eca020eb8a7f8410b4c4d4","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-6c2b0c97-2\", \"probability\": 0.99, \"rationale\": \"Industry projections estimate a $150–175 million opening weekend for Toy Story 5, which would easily make it the highest-grossing film of the weekend and the biggest domestic debut of 2026. No competing blockbuster is positioned to challenge these numbers, making a first-place finish nearly certain barring an unprecedented collapse or data publication failure.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Inceptron"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:03.749Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4990,"completionTokens":2215,"cost":0.015795945,"latencyMs":553,"rawSha256":"96021ad995a0d9bbca71879062e12d14d7ab641e012de624846345779f77680e","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-a6d095e7-1\", \"probability\": 0.05, \"rationale\": \"The articles from early June describe active military exchanges, deadlocked negotiations, and incompatible demands regarding frozen Iranian assets, leaving only two weeks to resolve these issues before the July 5 deadline. Given the ongoing hostilities and lack of progress toward a settlement, the likelihood of a formal bilateral agreement or permanent ceasefire extension being signed is very low.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Together"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:49.100Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":3892,"completionTokens":3529,"cost":0.015117795,"latencyMs":914,"rawSha256":"5f138e71482f4c927b0f83c83122fcb54b070d3dd07b2a91b919ff99a866e5af","raw":" ```json\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a52acc1b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.15,\n \"rationale\": \"The UK government and Ministry of Defence are actively downplaying the incident as a mere 'nautical incident' caused by fog and a dangerous course, with Prime Minister Starmer relying on the MOD assessment to avoid a diplomatic escalation. Given this explicit de-escalatory posture and that nearly two weeks have already passed without a summons, it is unlikely the FCDO will formally summon the Russian Ambassador for a protest over this specific incident before July 10.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:50.366Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3775,"completionTokens":1690,"cost":0.0057363075,"latencyMs":2317,"rawSha256":"e5d8ba07492a5b693153c534823a2542c9983f23cc2ad168e0172fcab3cd38b5","raw":"\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-a52acc1b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.15,\n \"rationale\": \"The UK government has consistently downplayed the event as a 'nautical incident' involving a 'drifting warship,' suggesting a desire to avoid diplomatic escalation rather than provoke it. Given that nearly two weeks have passed without such action and the official narrative minimizes Russian intent, a formal summons is unlikely before the deadline.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Novita"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:15.493Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"b0699fe8-e4ca-4a5b-bb84-133cfb33fcff","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5403,"completionTokens":632,"cost":0.00401960097,"latencyMs":1054,"rawSha256":"4b367b63ab8da7df26b0c22008bce8759152ffbbe40f2fdea728fc333bc27b2b","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-b0699fe8-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.10,\n \"rationale\": \"Kevin Warsh has signaled a desire for fewer public speeches and press conferences, and the next scheduled FOMC meeting (which typically includes a press conference) is likely after July 10. No other public events are indicated in the near term.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:33.301Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"b0699fe8-e4ca-4a5b-bb84-133cfb33fcff","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5146,"completionTokens":88,"cost":0.002320065,"latencyMs":257,"rawSha256":"095ea07c2d67e44432c906479666c1ae0b6e517cbb1f51c88814204539dd557c","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-b0699fe8-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.15,\n \"rationale\": \"Kevin Warsh has signaled a preference for reduced public communication and fewer speeches, breaking from Fed tradition. The articles indicate he wants less intervention and presence, making a public speech or press conference unlikely during this short period.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:18.982Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4541,"completionTokens":5288,"cost":0.0216852669,"latencyMs":1130,"rawSha256":"fd3064f419b4e3b3d961b9c627003a76fc53793dd4454af7252148ddf19bacc4","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-7ab6c1d8-1\", \"probability\": 0.18, \"rationale\": \"Multiple reputable sources, including Fabrizio Romano and the BBC, report that Real Madrid and Chelsea have a verbal agreement for Cucurella to join after the 2026 World Cup, which concludes on July 19—after the resolution deadline—though there remains a modest chance Spain exits early and the announcement is accelerated.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Parasail"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:54.570Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":3,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":5070,"completionTokens":1820,"cost":0.007942374,"latencyMs":629,"rawSha256":"a8ed2b0faf0899e1c3bcf85d7a3cab6d99c7207fb07e2f654f3c0af761df2789","raw":"```json\n{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-481c3dfd-1\", \"probability\": 0.98, \"rationale\": \"The Knicks clinched the 2026 NBA title on June 13, and championship parades are standard practice that typically occur within days of a team winning. With nearly four weeks until the July 10 deadline, a public civic celebration in New York City for this historic first title in 53 years is virtually certain to be held.\"}]}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:06.607Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":6786,"completionTokens":2000,"cost":0.00785911104,"latencyMs":686,"rawSha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","raw":"","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:13.803Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6591,"completionTokens":759,"cost":0.0040985802,"latencyMs":1095,"rawSha256":"df999966a327480c9bd757b86c22850aae483ebcd3ccc4051b55d52731a6c813","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-a79d1f07-1\", \"probability\": 0.65, \"rationale\": \"May 2026 reached 22.337 million, needing 112,000 more to exceed 22.45 million. 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Without Meta attributing this to a cyberattack, CISA involvement seems less likely.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:41.728Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4011,"completionTokens":110,"cost":0.0018747927,"latencyMs":287,"rawSha256":"5dd5e679ea5587a40bd09f8d35d72b0a4f0665a56d5ad825d0bcfe59f5c339f0","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-e8968a75-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.00,\n \"rationale\": \"Armand Duplantis competed in the Diamond League meeting in Stockholm on June 7, 2026, and finished second, losing to Kurtis Marschall. This was his first official World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition on or after June 14, 2026, and he did not place first.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:34.687Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4122,"completionTokens":603,"cost":0.00388219392,"latencyMs":1290,"rawSha256":"eaffbe5c8060e2bcc95f33288628fd1f02aaf3e93ccc7e1be818bb964139e609","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-e8968a75-1\", \"probability\": 0.90, \"rationale\": \"Duplantis has won 40 consecutive competitions before this rare loss; his overall dominance suggests a very high likelihood of winning the next competition, though the upset introduces minor uncertainty.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:16.183Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"ccdd5a0b-2814-4c6a-8c75-19a30a756b95","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5020,"completionTokens":3917,"cost":0.017242731,"latencyMs":282,"rawSha256":"3df39c42102bfd4783442cba7ae4a9ccd49ea58d5c7bafd3c25d2271f55540a9","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-ccdd5a0b-1\", \"probability\": 0.05, \"rationale\": \"The outage lasted only about an hour and was resolved quickly with no early reports of external malicious activity. Meta typically attributes such brief service disruptions to internal technical issues rather than issuing press releases about cyberattacks.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-ccdd5a0b-2\", \"probability\": 0.03, \"rationale\": \"CISA generally does not issue formal advisories for social media outages unless critical infrastructure or widespread national security threats are involved. The available evidence indicates a routine internal technical disruption rather than an external attack campaign.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:53.002Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"b5d8bf44-cd6e-47bd-b071-907f2174391d","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5532,"completionTokens":3688,"cost":0.0168770844,"latencyMs":913,"rawSha256":"ef9641b280c1ebb537530a75c1551a88c64d1abc298e9e20284734cd85b8b5f7","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-b5d8bf44-1\", \"probability\": 0.10, \"rationale\": \"Despite the death of Princess Bajrakitiyabha on June 11 increasing urgency around succession, King Vajiralongkorn has not named an heir in over a decade. A formal designation during the brief remaining window—overlapping with national mourning—is unlikely without prior signals.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Parasail"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:24.960Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"3d03e1d7-2579-4036-ac20-5a9cc5267b86","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":7886,"completionTokens":7015,"cost":0.0316765647,"latencyMs":3538,"rawSha256":"bd457b8954d32296f569a4e1559d99925f04ac23452a8352895674f930cbcf32","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\":\"q-3d03e1d7-1\",\"probability\":0.85,\"rationale\":\"Sybiha publicly pledged to return his Polish Order of Merit after Warsaw revoked Zelensky's award, and Ukrainian officials are systematically renouncing Polish honors in solidarity, making official confirmation by July 10 highly likely.\"},{\"id\":\"q-3d03e1d7-2\",\"probability\":0.08,\"rationale\":\"No postponement or cancellation had been announced as of June 21, the conference is only days away, and both governments have strong strategic incentives to proceed with reconstruction talks despite the diplomatic dispute over historical symbols.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"StreamLake"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:43:16.580Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4797,"completionTokens":7878,"cost":0.02825478612,"latencyMs":629,"rawSha256":"e53c1611193c7156e79122b20c89896ec23125d8bb3dda619c4c888152bdb4f5","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-1\", \"probability\": 0.90, \"rationale\": \"PP, Vox, and Junts together hold a parliamentary majority and have both filed amendments explicitly urging dissolution and early elections for the Thursday vote, making passage highly likely unless the motion is withdrawn or procedurally blocked.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-8d9dba5d-2\", \"probability\": 0.25, \"rationale\": \"Sánchez retains the exclusive constitutional prerogative to dissolve parliament, and non-binding parliamentary pressure has historically not forced him into snap elections; an official announcement within three weeks remains unlikely despite the political tension.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:21.208Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"cf1415d8-df12-4397-8000-466b2059c81d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4919,"completionTokens":1417,"cost":0.0085193757,"latencyMs":1341,"rawSha256":"c12b592aafc484f0a9258359b7d914d0b0c59a8a9b7b1f088541c21c54b350c7","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-cf1415d8-2\", \"probability\": 0.02, \"rationale\": \"On June 18, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar announced he is severing all contact with EU High Representative Kaja Kallas until she retracts alleged remarks comparing Israel to apartheid South Africa. Given that Kallas has not yet retracted these remarks and the specified window begins in just one week, an official bilateral meeting or joint press conference before July 10 is extremely improbable.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"SiliconFlow"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:25.510Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":3,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":6786,"completionTokens":2000,"cost":0.003333090816,"latencyMs":705,"rawSha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","raw":"","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:44:27.113Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":3892,"completionTokens":2414,"cost":0.010684377,"latencyMs":148,"rawSha256":"2ac3470264655f42bbfd362f62283ba31584103a0ac7ab867bcd215c648ecdfa","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-a52acc1b-1\", \"probability\": 0.20, \"rationale\": \"UK officials are publicly characterizing the event as a minor \\\"nautical incident\\\" driven by fog and poor seamanship rather than a hostile act, and the affected couple has explicitly accused the government of trying to avoid a diplomatic incident. With this de-escalatory posture already established and nearly two weeks elapsed since the event, a formal summons before July 10 appears unlikely.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Inceptron"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:19.851Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"ccdd5a0b-2814-4c6a-8c75-19a30a756b95","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4239,"completionTokens":2438,"cost":0.0076180995,"latencyMs":2725,"rawSha256":"600e347bc91e15df73f260157a1e425bdebd1d63e8760afea0a9a453cd161c4a","raw":"\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-ccdd5a0b-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.05,\n \"rationale\": \"Historical precedents for short-lived global outages typically involve internal technical errors rather than cyberattacks, and companies rarely issue explicit press releases attributing service disruptions to malicious actors without overwhelming evidence. The outage was resolved quickly on the same day, suggesting a technical glitch rather than a sustained external attack.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-ccdd5a0b-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.05,\n \"rationale\": \"CISA generally issues advisories for systemic threats or critical infrastructure impacts, and a standalone social media outage without evidence of a broader cyber campaign is unlikely to trigger an official alert. The brief duration and likely technical nature of the incident further reduce the probability of federal agency involvement.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Novita"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:52.009Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4366,"completionTokens":862,"cost":0.0044374176,"latencyMs":684,"rawSha256":"9e1f05d83b8df1b5a019147be5f0bc2ba2568abc6b86f2e3293f18462e2c9d74","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-fef4bee5-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.18,\n \"rationale\": \"The Smyrtos was intercepted on 2026-06-14 and placed in provisional anchorage for monitoring and investigation, likely under sanctions laws. Given the political significance and typical length of such legal processes, a release within 26 days is improbable; similar detentions often last months.\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"q-fef4bee5-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.88,\n \"rationale\": \"Russia routinely issues official statements condemning seizures of its assets or vessels; the MoFA website is a standard platform for such diplomatic protests. The high-profile nature of this interception and the allocated timeframe make a specific, condemning press release very likely.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:33.772Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"cf1415d8-df12-4397-8000-466b2059c81d","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5657,"completionTokens":1652,"cost":0.0066782925,"latencyMs":2396,"rawSha256":"2163371072aa90efb2c83a7c0bc67fd31257181dea741bf213d80a2ebca0db1e","raw":"\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-cf1415d8-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.05,\n \"rationale\": \"On June 18, 2026, Sa'ar announced a complete break in contacts with Kallas until she retracts alleged apartheid comparisons, a condition she has not met. 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Quickly releasing the vessel would also undermine the UK government's strong political messaging about delivering a blow to Russia's shadow fleet.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-fef4bee5-2\", \"probability\": 0.25, \"rationale\": \"Russia's foreign ministry often avoids explicitly naming shadow fleet vessels in official statements to maintain plausible deniability regarding their links to Moscow. The narrow three-week window and requirement for an explicit mention of 'Smyrtos' on mid.ru make this unlikely, especially as no immediate reaction was reported by June 14.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"DeepInfra"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:44.529Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":4866,"completionTokens":2000,"cost":0.00646012224,"latencyMs":1522,"rawSha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","raw":"","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:25.089Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"cf1415d8-df12-4397-8000-466b2059c81d","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":6667,"completionTokens":3143,"cost":0.01294669332,"latencyMs":657,"rawSha256":"abec25b96a78b4bff0dc9c4edbd27808a30deda66a13ba360fab7da5c69181b1","raw":"```json\n{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-cf1415d8-2\",\n \"probability\": 0.05,\n \"rationale\": \"On June 18, Israeli Foreign Minister Sa'ar publicly severed all contacts with Kallas, conditioning their resumption on a retraction of alleged apartheid remarks that Kallas refused to deny or withdraw. With this diplomatic freeze in place and only about two weeks remaining until the July 10 deadline, an officially announced bilateral meeting or joint press conference is extremely unlikely.\"\n }\n ]\n}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Baidu"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:58.924Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5755,"completionTokens":956,"cost":0.0040839975,"latencyMs":1051,"rawSha256":"d7d8b1206cd7ad8062a9f55d26d70fdc4ea43e26a3b0f7f31e59c429425e808f","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-fef4bee5-1\", \"probability\": 0.25, \"rationale\": \"The vessel was just intercepted on June 14 and investigations are ongoing, making a quick release unlikely given the UK's strong stance on enforcing sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-fef4bee5-2\", \"probability\": 0.75, \"rationale\": \"Russia has previously condemned similar interceptions as illegal and 'bordering on international piracy,' and would likely issue an official statement protesting this high-profile boarding of a vessel linked to their oil exports.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:04.162Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"ccdd5a0b-2814-4c6a-8c75-19a30a756b95","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":4803,"completionTokens":5274,"cost":0.02155626,"latencyMs":1288,"rawSha256":"bf85fe7fbb2a3c87f102f5a8e3957f51f8d0aa2b8a022b7a82d85ea383bb8ddf","raw":"```json\n{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-ccdd5a0b-1\", \"probability\": 0.05, \"rationale\": \"The outage symptoms reported—sudden logouts, application error messages, and simultaneous failures across Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger—are characteristic of past Meta internal configuration issues rather than cyberattacks or DDoS. Meta has consistently attributed similar global disruptions to technical errors, and no external malicious actor has claimed responsibility.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-ccdd5a0b-2\", \"probability\": 0.02, \"rationale\": \"CISA advisories address threats to critical infrastructure, federal networks, or widespread software vulnerabilities, not routine outages at a private social media firm. Because the articles indicate the issue is confined to Meta platforms with no broader security implications, federal alerting is unlikely.\"}]}\n```","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Novita"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:46:24.544Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"prod","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4866,"completionTokens":1273,"cost":0.002155608576,"latencyMs":1338,"rawSha256":"f72b818d6055d55b4c0040a53951892d1c3c2aad4fdb559ada74eb941099643f","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-e8968a75-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.95,\n \"rationale\": \"Duplantis lost only once in three years due to a temporary lack of focus from his wedding; he is still the world record holder and historically wins almost every competition, so he is very likely to win his next meet if he competes.\"\n }\n ]\n}","unknownIds":[],"provider":"(withheld)"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:47.391Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":4789,"completionTokens":2000,"cost":0.0055036773,"latencyMs":1307,"rawSha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","raw":"","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"z-ai/glm-4.6","provider":"Venice"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:56.828Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":6680,"completionTokens":4668,"cost":0.0211251744,"latencyMs":1045,"rawSha256":"1b72815e36e028a5f5830325718d25ccb5370f8545b15b3c19fbdeb5475b5148","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-fef4bee5-1\", \"probability\": 0.15, \"rationale\": \"The vessel was intercepted just two weeks ago and an active sanctions investigation is ongoing with one arrest made and crew remaining aboard, making an official release announcement within the next two weeks improbable. Maritime enforcement actions of this nature typically require weeks or months of investigation, and the UK government has framed this as part of a sustained campaign, suggesting prolonged detention.\"}, {\"id\": \"q-fef4bee5-2\", \"probability\": 0.30, \"rationale\": \"While Russia has previously condemned similar interceptions as illegal, the MFA typically responds through general statements or embassy channels rather than dedicated mid.ru press releases explicitly naming individual shadow fleet vessels. The lack of an immediate response by June 15 and the narrow June 21–July 10 publication window make a specific statement possible but unlikely.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Parasail"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:47.140Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":5016,"completionTokens":7602,"cost":0.034821468,"latencyMs":2369,"rawSha256":"d9d2119ea400adfe67ca6a077d1795e8c9a7661462a7362973ec5edbdb0e74ed","raw":"{\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-e8968a75-1\", \"probability\": 0.55, \"rationale\": \"Duplantis wins roughly 90% of competitions he enters, but his recent wedding and the absence of confirmed meets in the June 14–July 7 window make his participation uncertain; if he does compete, he remains the odds-on favorite.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"AtlasCloud"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:45:37.851Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":1,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"birth","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4385,"completionTokens":6254,"cost":0.0332125695,"latencyMs":1539,"rawSha256":"8653590a35abac29c5e20d42e9e4aa11523e56329614ac0f30c8897053e7be8a","raw":" {\"forecasts\": [{\"id\": \"q-e8968a75-1\", \"probability\": 0.85, \"rationale\": \"Despite his shocking June 7 loss in Stockholm ending a 40-meet win streak, Duplantis remains the dominant pole vaulter in the world and is highly likely to enter at least one World Athletics-sanctioned competition between June 14 and July 7. His base rate of winning elite meets is still extremely high, though the recent uncharacteristic struggles at lower heights and potential fatigue slightly temper the probability from his previous near-certainty.\"}]}","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"Phala"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:46:22.407Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":3,"armLabel":"kimi-k2.6","eventId":"a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":8000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":false,"promptTokens":7388,"completionTokens":7998,"cost":0.02806848,"latencyMs":485,"rawSha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","raw":"","unknownIds":[],"modelId":"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6","provider":"ModelRun"} {"ts":"2026-07-11T14:47:04.830Z","tag":"005-run1","stage":"forecast","attempt":2,"armLabel":"glm-4.6","eventId":"e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2","snapshot":"mid","params":{"temperature":0.2,"maxTokens":2000,"responseFormat":"json_object"},"ok":true,"parseOk":true,"promptTokens":4789,"completionTokens":1060,"cost":0.0022341033,"latencyMs":934,"rawSha256":"7269ed1516962a7ecd046c4f16265f7795a433c46deb74f0606a14b33ff6f173","raw":"{\n \"forecasts\": [\n {\n \"id\": \"q-e8968a75-1\",\n \"probability\": 0.80,\n \"rationale\": \"Duplantis just suffered his first loss in 3 years but remains historically dominant with 40+ straight wins prior to this upset. 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Although an external malicious cause cannot be fully ruled out pending investigation, the base rate for such outages being attributed to cyberattacks is low.\"},{\"id\":\"q-ccdd5a0b-2\",\"probability\":0.05,\"rationale\":\"CISA generally issues formal advisories for active cyber threats, critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, or widespread malicious campaigns rather than for private platform service outages, and none of the current reports suggest a broader security threat or attack. 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