[
  {
    "id": "q-05d64025-1",
    "eventId": "05d64025-f9d9-44b0-a5c3-4bc5a5a044ea",
    "text": "Will Christian Eriksen release an official statement announcing his retirement from professional football on or before July 7, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "An official statement is published by Christian Eriksen, his agent, his club VfL Wolfsburg, or the Danish Football Association (DBU) explicitly announcing that Christian Eriksen is retiring from playing professional football.",
    "noCondition": "No such official announcement of his retirement from professional football is made by July 7, 2026, or he explicitly states he intends to continue playing.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.dbu.dk/ (Read the official news section and press releases to see if a retirement announcement for Christian Eriksen is published)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.vfl-wolfsburg.de/ (Read the official club news and press releases to see if a retirement announcement for Christian Eriksen is published)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T18:27:53Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-07T18:27:53Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The player dies before any announcement is made"
    ],
    "classTag": "leadership-change"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-12b79b13-1",
    "eventId": "12b79b13-3454-4768-bd03-1e2dbe75de71",
    "text": "Will Latvia's Ministry of Defense or National Armed Forces officially identify the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, as being of Russian manufacture or ownership by July 8, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The Ministry of Defense of Latvia (mod.gov.lv) or the Latvian National Armed Forces (mil.lv) publishes an official statement, press release, or social media post on their verified accounts explicitly identifying the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, as being of Russian manufacture, origin, or ownership.",
    "noCondition": "No such official statement or press release is published by Latvia's Ministry of Defense or National Armed Forces by the deadline, or they officially attribute the drone to a country other than Russia (such as Ukraine or Belarus).",
    "primarySource": "https://www.mod.gov.lv/en/news (Read the official news releases published between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026, to see if they explicitly state that the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, was Russian.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.mil.lv/en (Read the official news and press releases of the Latvian National Armed Forces published between June 15, 2026, and July 8, 2026, to see if they explicitly state that the drone shot down on June 8, 2026, was Russian.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-08T07:35:01Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-08T07:35:01Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The Latvian Ministry of Defense or National Armed Forces officially states before the deadline that no drone was actually shot down on June 8, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-16d4db8b-1",
    "eventId": "16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1",
    "text": "Will the Council of the European Union formally adopt or approve the regulations implementing the EU-US trade agreement on or before July 3, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The Council of the European Union (also known as the Council of Ministers) formally adopts, approves, or gives its final rubber stamp to the regulations implementing the EU-US tariff/trade agreement (as approved by the European Parliament on June 16, 2026) on or before July 3, 2026.",
    "noCondition": "The Council of the European Union does not formally adopt or approve the regulations implementing the EU-US trade agreement on or before July 3, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/ (Read the official press releases page of the Council of the EU to see if a press release confirms the formal adoption or approval of the EU-US trade/tariff regulations on or before July 3, 2026.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/oj/direct-access.html (Check the Official Journal of the European Union for the publication of the adopted regulations, verifying if the signature/adoption date by the Council is on or before July 3, 2026.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-03T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-05T12:00:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The trade agreement is officially declared void or canceled by both parties before the Council can vote."
    ],
    "classTag": "policy-decision"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-16d4db8b-2",
    "eventId": "16d4db8b-3101-46a6-a0fb-f5adccb945a1",
    "text": "Will the EU-US trade agreement regulations approved by the European Parliament on June 16, 2026, be published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement (specifically the main regulation eliminating tariffs on US industrial goods and/or the regulation extending duty-free imports of US lobster) are published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026.",
    "noCondition": "No such regulations implementing the EU-US tariff agreement are published in the Official Journal of the European Union on or before July 10, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/oj/direct-access.html (Search the Official Journal of the European Union for published regulations concerning the elimination of customs duties on US industrial products or lobster imports published between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en (Check the European Commission's official press corner for announcements confirming the publication of the regulations in the Official Journal.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The European Union officially announces that the trade agreement has been completely abandoned or renegotiated from scratch, rendering the June 16 parliamentary vote irrelevant."
    ],
    "classTag": "indicator-threshold"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-2b08e558-1",
    "eventId": "2b08e558-8342-435b-9855-aab3e34ca37a",
    "text": "Will the flash estimate of Spain's annual Consumer Price Index (IPC) for June 2026, published by the INE, be 3.3% or higher?",
    "yesCondition": "The flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of the annual CPI (IPC) rate for June 2026, published by Spain's Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), is 3.3% or higher.",
    "noCondition": "The flash estimate (indicador adelantado) of the annual CPI (IPC) rate for June 2026, published by Spain's Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), is 3.2% or lower.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176802&menu=ultiDatos&idp=1254735976607 (Read the official press release for the June 2026 flash estimate 'Indicador adelantado del IPC' and check the annual rate 'tasa de variación anual estimada del IPC'.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.ine.es/ (Search the press room or publications section for the June 2026 'Indicador adelantado del IPC' and check the annual rate.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-05T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-05T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The INE does not publish the flash estimate for June 2026 by the deadline."
    ],
    "classTag": "indicator-threshold"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-2e4a0893-1",
    "eventId": "2e4a0893-4eae-40fc-ae25-f89b16956d13",
    "text": "Will Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un issue a joint statement during Xi's June 2026 visit to North Korea?",
    "yesCondition": "A joint statement, joint declaration, or joint communique signed or issued collectively by Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un (or on behalf of their respective governments/states) is officially published or reported by state media (such as KCNA or Xinhua) between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.",
    "noCondition": "No such joint statement, joint declaration, or joint communique is officially published or reported by state media (such as KCNA or Xinhua) between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://english.news.cn/ (Xinhua English) and http://www.kcna.kp/ (KCNA English). Read the official press releases and news reports covering the bilateral meetings of Xi Jinping's June 2026 visit to North Korea to determine if a joint statement or communique was issued.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://apnews.com/ (Associated Press). Search for coverage of Xi Jinping's June 2026 visit to North Korea to verify if a joint statement or joint communique was officially released.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T04:20:37Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-07T04:20:37Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The visit by Xi Jinping to North Korea is officially canceled or does not take place at all before July 7, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-356eb3b6-2",
    "eventId": "356eb3b6-ad28-4063-ae27-2d7a131a6d1a",
    "text": "Will Santos Cerdán resign or be formally removed from his position as a member of the Spanish Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) by July 2, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "Santos Cerdán officially resigns, is expelled, or otherwise ceases to hold his seat as a deputy (diputado) in the Congreso de los Diputados.",
    "noCondition": "Santos Cerdán remains an active member of the Congreso de los Diputados.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.congreso.es/\nCheck the official directory of deputies on the Congreso de los Diputados website. Search for 'Santos Cerdán León'. A YES is decided if his profile status indicates he has ceased to hold office ('causó baja') on or before the deadline. A NO is decided if he is still listed as an active deputy.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.elmundo.es/\nSearch for news reports regarding 'Santos Cerdán' and 'dimite', 'renuncia', or 'deja el acta'. A YES is decided if major Spanish national media confirm he has resigned or lost his seat in Congress. A NO is decided if no such event is reported.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-02T12:40:37Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-02T12:40:37Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The Spanish Congress of Deputies is dissolved entirely due to a call for snap general elections before July 2, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "leadership-change"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-37435e85-2",
    "eventId": "37435e85-30c2-46e3-a923-6fae6a7247e9",
    "text": "Will the Ukrainian State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate (SNRIU) or Energoatom report an increase in radiation levels above normal operational safety limits at the Central Spent Fuel Storage Facility (CSFSF) near Chernobyl?",
    "yesCondition": "The SNRIU or Energoatom officially reports that radiation levels at the CSFSF site have exceeded the established normal operational safety limits as a direct or indirect consequence of the June 7, 2026 strike.",
    "noCondition": "No official report of radiation levels exceeding normal operational safety limits at the CSFSF is published by the SNRIU or Energoatom within the specified timeframe.",
    "primarySource": "https://snriu.gov.ua/en (Read the official English or Ukrainian news updates of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine to see if they report radiation levels exceeding normal limits at the CSFSF.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases (Read the IAEA updates on Ukraine's nuclear safety to see if they report that Ukrainian authorities detected radiation levels exceeding normal limits at the CSFSF.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T09:01:21Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-07T09:01:21Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The CSFSF facility is completely destroyed by a subsequent military strike, making radiation monitoring at that specific facility impossible to report."
    ],
    "classTag": "indicator-threshold"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-3d03e1d7-1",
    "eventId": "3d03e1d7-2579-4036-ac20-5a9cc5267b86",
    "text": "Will Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha return his Polish Order of Merit before July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "A public announcement or official statement from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Polish Presidential Office, or Andrij Sybiha himself confirms that Sybiha has physically returned, formally renounced, or officially handed back his Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland (received in 2022) to Polish authorities.",
    "noCondition": "No such official confirmation of the return or formal renunciation of the award is published by the deadline, or the award remains in his possession.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.facebook.com/andrii.sybiha (Read the official Facebook posts of Andrij Sybiha to see if he confirms the physical return or formal renunciation of his Polish Order of Merit)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.pap.pl/en (Search for news reports regarding Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha returning his Polish Order of Merit)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "Andrij Sybiha is no longer the Foreign Minister of Ukraine due to death or permanent incapacitation before the return is executed."
    ],
    "classTag": "leadership-change"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-3d03e1d7-2",
    "eventId": "3d03e1d7-2579-4036-ac20-5a9cc5267b86",
    "text": "Will the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdańsk (Danzig) scheduled for June 25-26, 2026, be officially postponed or canceled?",
    "yesCondition": "An official announcement from the Polish government, the Ukrainian government, or the conference's official organizing committee states that the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdańsk, originally scheduled for June 25-26, 2026, has been postponed to a later date or canceled entirely.",
    "noCondition": "The conference takes place on June 25 and/or June 26, 2026, as scheduled, or is not officially postponed or canceled by the end of June 26, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy (Read the official press releases of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs to check for any postponement or cancellation announcements regarding the Gdańsk conference)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.pap.pl/en (Search for news reports confirming the postponement, cancellation, or successful commencement of the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Gdańsk)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-06-26T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-06-26T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The conference venue is affected by a force majeure event (such as a natural disaster or terrorist attack) unrelated to the diplomatic dispute, rendering the event physically impossible."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-3fe38d6e-1",
    "eventId": "3fe38d6e-888d-44f7-bb23-af091ea2dbdc",
    "text": "Will Keir Starmer remain the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "Keir Starmer continuously holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from June 18, 2026, through July 10, 2026.",
    "noCondition": "Keir Starmer ceases to hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between June 18, 2026, and July 10, 2026 (inclusive).",
    "primarySource": "https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister\nCheck the official UK government website to see if Keir Starmer is listed as the Prime Minister. If another individual is listed as Prime Minister, or if the office is vacant, the outcome is NO.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.bbc.com/news/politics\nCheck BBC News politics section to confirm if Keir Starmer has resigned, been replaced, or otherwise left office.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The UK government is dissolved or ceases to exist as a sovereign entity."
    ],
    "classTag": "leadership-change"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-481c3dfd-1",
    "eventId": "481c3dfd-4b59-4279-861e-8ee7ca74e014",
    "text": "Will the New York Knicks hold a public championship parade in New York City to celebrate their 2026 NBA title on or before July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "A public parade, rally, or official civic celebration honoring the New York Knicks' 2026 NBA championship is held in New York City (such as a parade through the Canyon of Heroes) on or before July 10, 2026.",
    "noCondition": "No public parade, rally, or official civic celebration honoring the New York Knicks' 2026 NBA championship is held in New York City on or before July 10, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.nba.com/knicks/\nRead the official news and announcements on the Knicks' official homepage to verify if a public championship parade or rally took place in New York City on or before July 10, 2026.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.nytimes.com/\nSearch the New York Times for reports of a public championship parade or civic celebration in New York City honoring the Knicks' 2026 NBA title on or before July 10, 2026.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The 2026 NBA Finals outcome is legally overturned or vacated by the NBA prior to the deadline."
    ],
    "classTag": "event-recurs"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-6c2b0c97-2",
    "eventId": "6c2b0c97-baa7-43ba-86bb-57938aedb322",
    "text": "Will Toy Story 5 be the number one film at the domestic weekend box office for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026, according to Box Office Mojo?",
    "yesCondition": "Toy Story 5 is listed as the #1 film by weekend gross in the domestic box office chart for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026.",
    "noCondition": "Any film other than Toy Story 5 is listed as the #1 film by weekend gross in the domestic box office chart for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/by-year/2026/ - Locate the row for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026 (usually Week 25) and verify if 'Toy Story 5' is listed as the #1 movie.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2026/06/19 - Verify if 'Toy Story 5' is listed as the #1 movie on the domestic weekend chart starting June 19, 2026.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-06-25T12:00:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-06-25T12:00:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "No domestic weekend box office data is published for the weekend of June 19–21, 2026 by either source by the deadline."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-7ab6c1d8-1",
    "eventId": "7ab6c1d8-d4c6-4e9f-abfe-5026213a7e34",
    "text": "Will Real Madrid officially announce the signing of Marc Cucurella from Chelsea on or before July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "Real Madrid officially announces on its website or verified social media channels that they have signed Marc Cucurella (or reached a definitive agreement for his transfer) from Chelsea.",
    "noCondition": "No official announcement of Marc Cucurella's signing is made by Real Madrid on or before July 10, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.realmadrid.com/en-US/news\nRead the official news feed of Real Madrid. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the signing or transfer agreement of Marc Cucurella, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news\nRead the official news feed of Chelsea FC. If an article is published on or before July 10, 2026, confirming the transfer of Marc Cucurella to Real Madrid, resolve YES. Otherwise, resolve NO.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The player Marc Cucurella retires from professional football before July 10, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "deal-closes"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-8d9dba5d-1",
    "eventId": "8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d",
    "text": "Will the Congress of Deputies of Spain approve a motion or amendment that formally urges or demands that President Pedro Sánchez dissolve the Cortes Generales and call general elections, during the plenary sessions scheduled for the week of June 15, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) of Spain votes on and approves (by simple or absolute majority) a motion, or an amendment to a motion (such as the PP motion regarding the government's weakness), that explicitly calls on, demands, or urges the President of the Government to dissolve the Cortes Generales and/or call general elections.",
    "noCondition": "The Congress of Deputies votes on such a motion or amendment and rejects it, or no such vote takes place during the specified period, or the motion is withdrawn without a vote.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.congreso.es/\nRead the official voting records, daily journal of sessions (Diario de Sesiones), or official press releases of the Congress of Deputies for the plenary sessions held between June 16, 2026, and June 20, 2026. If a motion or amendment urging the dissolution of the Cortes/calling of elections is recorded as approved (Aprobado), the resolution is YES. If it is rejected (Rechazado) or not voted on, the resolution is NO.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://elpais.com/\nSearch the national politics section of El País for coverage of the parliamentary votes in the Congress of Deputies on June 18, 2026 (or surrounding days of that week). If El País reports that the Congress approved the initiative/amendment demanding or urging Pedro Sánchez to call elections, the resolution is YES.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-06-23T10:27:57Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-06-23T10:27:57Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The plenary sessions of the Congress of Deputies for the week of June 15, 2026, are entirely suspended or canceled due to force majeure."
    ],
    "classTag": "policy-decision"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-8d9dba5d-2",
    "eventId": "8d9dba5d-61d3-4ad4-a657-4dfc16a25e1d",
    "text": "Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez officially announce the dissolution of the Cortes Generales and the calling of early general elections on or before July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "Pedro Sánchez, in his capacity as President of the Government of Spain, makes an official public announcement or decree proposing the dissolution of the Cortes Generales and calling for early general elections, with the announcement occurring between June 16, 2026, and July 10, 2026, at 23:59:00 UTC.",
    "noCondition": "No such official announcement or decree is made by Pedro Sánchez on or before July 10, 2026, at 23:59:00 UTC.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.boe.es/\nCheck the Official State Gazette (Boletín Oficial del Estado - BOE) for a Royal Decree (Real Decreto) signed by the King and countersigned by the President of the Government dissolving the Cortes Generales and calling elections, published on or before July 11, 2026 (reflecting a decision made on or before July 10, 2026). If such a decree is published, the resolution is YES.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/\nCheck the official press releases and statements from the Presidency of the Government (La Moncloa). If an official statement confirms that Pedro Sánchez has announced the dissolution of parliament and the calling of elections on or before July 10, 2026, the resolution is YES.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "Pedro Sánchez ceases to be the President of the Government of Spain (e.g., due to resignation, a successful motion of no confidence, or death) before any such announcement is made."
    ],
    "classTag": "policy-decision"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-a52acc1b-1",
    "eventId": "a52acc1b-16a2-40d9-a468-cc3feae5cc2b",
    "text": "Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the UK Government officially summon the Russian Ambassador to the UK for a formal diplomatic protest regarding the June 16, 2026 English Channel yacht incident before July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) or the UK Ministry of Defence officially announces that the Russian Ambassador to the UK (or the Russian Chargé d'Affaires) has been formally summoned to the Foreign Office specifically to receive a diplomatic protest or demand for explanation regarding the June 16, 2026 incident involving the Admiral Grigorovich and the British-registered yacht.",
    "noCondition": "No such official announcement of a formal summons of the Russian Ambassador or Chargé d'Affaires regarding this specific incident is made by the UK government, or the UK government explicitly states they will not summon the ambassador over this incident.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/foreign-commonwealth-development-office\nRead the official news, press releases, and statements section. A YES is resolved if a press release or official statement published between June 23, 2026, and July 10, 2026, confirms that the Russian Ambassador (or Chargé d'Affaires) was summoned to the FCDO over the June 16, 2026 English Channel yacht incident. Otherwise, NO.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.bbc.com/news/uk\nRead the UK news section. If the primary source is unavailable or lacks the information, a YES is resolved if the BBC reports that the UK Foreign Office has formally summoned the Russian Ambassador to protest the June 16, 2026 yacht shooting incident. Otherwise, NO.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The UK government or Russian government officially states before the deadline that the entire incident of June 16, 2026 (the alleged warning shots from the Admiral Grigorovich) was a fabrication and never took place."
    ],
    "classTag": "policy-decision"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-a6d095e7-1",
    "eventId": "a6d095e7-72e3-4cb7-9c32-915450def9df",
    "text": "Will the United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement to formally end the war or permanently extend the ceasefire by July 5, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The United States and Iran sign a bilateral agreement, treaty, or joint accord that formally ends the state of war or establishes a permanent/indefinite extension of the ceasefire, signed by authorized representatives of both nations.",
    "noCondition": "No such bilateral agreement is signed by both nations within the specified timeframe.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.state.gov/newsroom/\nRead the official press releases and statements from the US Department of State. A YES is decided if an official release confirms the signing of a bilateral peace agreement or permanent ceasefire extension with Iran between June 12, 2026, and July 5, 2026. Otherwise, NO.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/\nRead the Reuters Middle East news coverage. A YES is decided if Reuters reports that a bilateral peace agreement or permanent ceasefire extension has been signed by the US and Iran within the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-05T23:37:56Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-05T23:37:56Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The United States or Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign state before the deadline."
    ],
    "classTag": "deal-closes"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-a79d1f07-1",
    "eventId": "a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b",
    "text": "Will Spain's Social Security affiliation (afiliación media a la Seguridad Social) exceed 22.45 million in the official June 2026 data?",
    "yesCondition": "The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration (Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones) for June 2026 shows that the average number of affiliates (afiliación media) to the Social Security system is strictly greater than 22,450,000.",
    "noCondition": "The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration for June 2026 shows that the average number of affiliates (afiliación media) to the Social Security system is 22,450,000 or fewer.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.inclusion.gob.es/web/seguridad-social/estadisticas (Read the official press release or statistical report for June 2026, typically published in early July, to find the 'afiliación media' figure).",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.epdata.es/datos/paro-afiliacion-seguridad-social-datos-graficos-estadisticas/288 (Read the updated chart and text for June 2026 average affiliation).",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-02T07:12:21Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-02T07:12:21Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration does not publish the official June 2026 employment and affiliation data by July 2, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "indicator-threshold"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-a79d1f07-2",
    "eventId": "a79d1f07-aa23-40c1-940c-5062b3e8299b",
    "text": "Will the registered unemployment (paro registrado) in Spain fall below 2.28 million in the official June 2026 data?",
    "yesCondition": "The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy (Ministerio de Trabajo y Economía Social) for June 2026 shows that the total registered unemployment (paro registrado) is strictly less than 2,280,000 people.",
    "noCondition": "The official monthly report published by the Spanish Ministry of Labor and Social Economy for June 2026 shows that the total registered unemployment (paro registrado) is 2,280,000 people or more.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.mites.gob.es/es/estadisticas/index.htm (Read the official press release or statistical report for June 2026, typically published in early July, to find the 'paro registrado' figure).",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.epdata.es/datos/paro-afiliacion-seguridad-social-datos-graficos-estadisticas/288 (Read the updated chart and text for June 2026 registered unemployment).",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-02T07:12:21Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-02T07:12:21Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The Ministry of Labor and Social Economy does not publish the official June 2026 registered unemployment data by July 2, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "indicator-threshold"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-b0699fe8-2",
    "eventId": "b0699fe8-e4ca-4a5b-bb84-133cfb33fcff",
    "text": "Will Kevin Warsh deliver a public speech or hold a press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "Kevin Warsh, in his official capacity as Chair of the Federal Reserve, delivers a public speech, participates in a public Q&A session, or hosts an official press conference.",
    "noCondition": "Kevin Warsh does not deliver any public speech, participate in a public Q&A, or host a press conference during this period.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm (Read the Federal Reserve's official calendar of events and speeches. A YES is resolved if the calendar lists a public speech, testimony, or press conference delivered by Chair Kevin Warsh between June 24, 2026, and July 10, 2026, and the event is confirmed to have occurred. Otherwise, NO.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm (Read the Federal Reserve's press releases. A YES is resolved if a press release or transcript confirms a public speech or press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh during the specified timeframe. Otherwise, NO.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "Kevin Warsh resigns or is removed from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to July 10, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-b5d8bf44-1",
    "eventId": "b5d8bf44-cd6e-47bd-b071-907f2174391d",
    "text": "Will Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn officially name a successor to the throne between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The Bureau of the Royal Household or the Royal Gazette of Thailand officially announces that King Maha Vajiralongkorn has designated or appointed a specific individual as the heir apparent or successor to the throne.",
    "noCondition": "No official announcement designating or appointing a successor to the throne is made by the Bureau of the Royal Household or the Royal Gazette of Thailand during the specified period.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.royaloffice.th/ (Read the official announcements and press releases from the Bureau of the Royal Household to see if an heir apparent or successor is officially named.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.reuters.com/ (Search for reports from Reuters confirming whether the Thai King has officially designated a successor during the specified timeframe.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The King of Thailand dies or abdicates before a successor is named, rendering the question moot."
    ],
    "classTag": "leadership-change"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-ccdd5a0b-1",
    "eventId": "ccdd5a0b-2814-4c6a-8c75-19a30a756b95",
    "text": "Will Meta Platforms, Inc. issue an official press release or newsroom statement attributing the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity by July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "Meta Platforms, Inc. publishes an official statement, blog post, or press release on its official newsroom or corporate website between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly stating that the service outage on June 12, 2026, was caused by a cyberattack, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, or other external malicious actor activity.",
    "noCondition": "Meta Platforms, Inc. does not publish any official statement attributing the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity by July 10, 2026, or explicitly attributes the outage to internal technical issues, configuration changes, or routine maintenance.",
    "primarySource": "https://about.fb.com/news/ (Read the official Meta Newsroom articles and updates published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to determine if any statement attributes the June 12, 2026 outage to a cyberattack or external malicious activity.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/ (Search for Reuters reports published between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, citing official Meta spokespeople or statements regarding the cause of the June 12, 2026 outage.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "Meta Platforms, Inc. ceases to exist as a corporate entity before July 10, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "policy-decision"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-ccdd5a0b-2",
    "eventId": "ccdd5a0b-2814-4c6a-8c75-19a30a756b95",
    "text": "Will the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issue an official advisory or alert mentioning the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "CISA publishes an official alert, advisory, or press release on its official website between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, that explicitly references the Meta (Facebook, Instagram, or Messenger) outage of June 12, 2026.",
    "noCondition": "CISA does not publish any official alert, advisory, or press release referencing the June 12, 2026 Meta outage by July 10, 2026.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories (Review all cybersecurity advisories, alerts, and news releases published by CISA between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, to see if they explicitly mention the Meta outage of June 12, 2026.)",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news (Review all general news releases and statements published by CISA between June 19, 2026, and July 10, 2026, for any explicit mention of the Meta outage of June 12, 2026.)",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The CISA official website is permanently offline or inaccessible during the entire resolution window."
    ],
    "classTag": "policy-decision"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-cf1415d8-2",
    "eventId": "cf1415d8-df12-4397-8000-466b2059c81d",
    "text": "Will Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas hold an official bilateral meeting or joint press conference between June 25, 2026, and July 10, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the European External Action Service officially announces or documents that Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas held an in-person or virtual bilateral meeting, or appeared together in an official joint press conference.",
    "noCondition": "No official bilateral meeting or joint press conference between Gideon Sa'ar and Kaja Kallas is announced or documented as having occurred during the specified timeframe.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.gov.il/en/departments/ministry_of_foreign_affairs/govil-landing-page\nRead the official press releases and news updates of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs to verify if a bilateral meeting or joint press conference with Kaja Kallas took place.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/high-representative-vice-president_en\nRead the official schedule, press releases, and news updates of the EU High Representative to verify if a bilateral meeting or joint press conference with Gideon Sa'ar took place.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "Either Gideon Sa'ar or Kaja Kallas officially leaves their respective office before July 10, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-e8968a75-1",
    "eventId": "e8968a75-737a-4519-a446-0d1393681af2",
    "text": "Will Armand Duplantis win his next official pole vault competition held on or after June 14, 2026?",
    "yesCondition": "Armand Duplantis places first (including tied for first) in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.",
    "noCondition": "Armand Duplantis competes in but does not place first in his first official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition that takes place between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive.",
    "primarySource": "https://worldathletics.org/athletes/sweden/armand-duplantis-14634942\nRead the 'Results' tab for Armand Duplantis's profile to identify the first competition held on or after June 14, 2026, and verify if his final position is 1st.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.diamondleague.com/\nRead the official Diamond League meeting results or World Athletics news releases to determine the outcome of Duplantis's first competition in this timeframe.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-07T16:36:03Z",
    "announcementRule": "occurrence",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-07T16:36:03Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "Armand Duplantis does not participate in any official, World Athletics-sanctioned pole vault competition between June 14, 2026, and July 7, 2026, inclusive."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-fef4bee5-1",
    "eventId": "fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d",
    "text": "Will the UK Ministry of Defence or the National Crime Agency announce that the sanctioned oil tanker Smyrtos has been officially released from UK custody or anchorage?",
    "yesCondition": "The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), the National Crime Agency (NCA), or the UK Government officially announces that the oil tanker Smyrtos (intercepted on June 14, 2026) has been released from UK custody, detention, or its designated anchorage off the south coast of England, allowing it to resume its voyage.",
    "noCondition": "No such official announcement of the vessel's release is made by the UK MoD, NCA, or UK Government, or the vessel remains detained/monitored under UK custody.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-defence\nRead the official press releases and news updates on the UK Ministry of Defence homepage. A YES is decided if there is an official statement confirming the release of the vessel 'Smyrtos' from UK custody or anchorage. Otherwise, NO.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/news\nRead the official news releases of the National Crime Agency. A YES is decided if an official statement confirms the release of the vessel 'Smyrtos' from UK custody or anchorage. Otherwise, NO.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The vessel Smyrtos is proven to have sunk, been destroyed, or suffered a catastrophic accident before any decision on its release or continued detention is announced."
    ],
    "classTag": "policy-decision"
  },
  {
    "id": "q-fef4bee5-2",
    "eventId": "fef4bee5-257c-4317-b1bc-4c85cdb2c02d",
    "text": "Will Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issue an official press release or statement on its website specifically condemning or demanding the release of the vessel Smyrtos?",
    "yesCondition": "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation publishes an official statement, press release, or briefing transcript on its official website (mid.ru) that explicitly mentions the vessel 'Smyrtos' and condemns its interception by the UK or demands its release.",
    "noCondition": "No official statement, press release, or briefing transcript mentioning 'Smyrtos' and condemning its interception or demanding its release is published on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website.",
    "primarySource": "https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/\nRead the English-language press releases and statements on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs news portal. A YES is decided if any official statement or briefing transcript published between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly names 'Smyrtos' and protests, condemns, or demands its release. Otherwise, NO.",
    "fallbackSource": "https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/\nRead the Russian-language press releases and statements on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs news portal. A YES is decided if any official statement or briefing transcript published between June 21, 2026, and July 10, 2026, explicitly names 'Smyrtos' (Смиртос) and protests, condemns, or demands its release. Otherwise, NO.",
    "deadlineUtc": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "announcementRule": "announcement",
    "graceRule": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
    "voidConditions": [
      "The official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (mid.ru) is completely inaccessible and offline for the entire period from June 21, 2026, to July 10, 2026."
    ],
    "classTag": "competition-outcome"
  }
]