{
  "meta": {
    "tag": "005-run1",
    "protocol": "005-run1-prereg-v1.3",
    "seed": 20260711,
    "bootstrapReps": 10000,
    "resolutionLogSha256": "4c140ec9a4560579a8fb9e32ee17f4feb9365b3301b52bd5723783d1e5247abb",
    "questions": 28,
    "events": 22,
    "voidQuestions": [],
    "notes": [
      "Scores are birth-snapshot, complete-case (§7); VOIDs excluded and bounded (§10.6).",
      "All non-headline numbers are exploratory (§10.1); descriptive scores, never rankings (§11).",
      "ref-0.5 is the analytic uninformative reference, not an empirical baseline (§7.1).",
      "Murphy components are point diagnostics only, no CIs (§10.4)."
    ]
  },
  "headline": {
    "contrast": "fable-minus-prod",
    "snapshot": "birth",
    "weighting": "question",
    "nPairs": 28,
    "droppedPairs": 0,
    "meanPairedBrierDiff": -0.1536392857142857,
    "ci95": {
      "lo": -0.25383928571428566,
      "hi": -0.0716
    }
  },
  "headlineImputation05": {
    "contrast": "fable-minus-prod",
    "snapshot": "birth",
    "weighting": "question",
    "nPairs": 28,
    "droppedPairs": 0,
    "meanPairedBrierDiff": -0.1536392857142857,
    "ci95": {
      "lo": -0.25383928571428566,
      "hi": -0.0716
    },
    "note": "§11 sensitivity block: the 0.5-imputation re-scoring of failed calls (§7) — the primary contrast with failed forecasts on either side scored at p = 0.5"
  },
  "table1": [
    {
      "armLabel": "fable",
      "n": 28,
      "meanBrierQuestionWeighted": 0.1224,
      "meanBrierEventWeighted": 0.10771818181818182,
      "ci95": {
        "lo": 0.046289285714285686,
        "hi": 0.20680689655172413
      },
      "meanLogScore": 0.391756551290642,
      "unclippedEndpointForecasts": [],
      "failureRate": {
        "birth": {
          "failed": 0,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0
        },
        "mid": {
          "failed": 0,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "armLabel": "prod",
      "n": 28,
      "meanBrierQuestionWeighted": 0.2760392857142857,
      "meanBrierEventWeighted": 0.2725477272727272,
      "ci95": {
        "lo": 0.1568931034482759,
        "hi": 0.3974290322580646
      },
      "meanLogScore": 0.8420417789323063,
      "unclippedEndpointForecasts": [
        {
          "questionId": "q-7ab6c1d8-1",
          "snapshot": "mid",
          "p": 1
        }
      ],
      "failureRate": {
        "birth": {
          "failed": 0,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0
        },
        "mid": {
          "failed": 2,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0.07142857142857142
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "armLabel": "kimi-k2.6",
      "n": 25,
      "meanBrierQuestionWeighted": 0.17986400000000002,
      "meanBrierEventWeighted": 0.1846075,
      "ci95": {
        "lo": 0.08293461538461536,
        "hi": 0.2897653846153846
      },
      "meanLogScore": 0.5444928456099882,
      "unclippedEndpointForecasts": [
        {
          "questionId": "q-7ab6c1d8-1",
          "snapshot": "mid",
          "p": 1
        },
        {
          "questionId": "q-8d9dba5d-1",
          "snapshot": "mid",
          "p": 0
        }
      ],
      "failureRate": {
        "birth": {
          "failed": 3,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0.10714285714285714
        },
        "mid": {
          "failed": 2,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0.07142857142857142
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "armLabel": "glm-4.6",
      "n": 28,
      "meanBrierQuestionWeighted": 0.2887642857142857,
      "meanBrierEventWeighted": 0.30246136363636367,
      "ci95": {
        "lo": 0.17298124999999998,
        "hi": 0.41553571428571434
      },
      "meanLogScore": 0.8776285555389186,
      "unclippedEndpointForecasts": [
        {
          "questionId": "q-e8968a75-1",
          "snapshot": "birth",
          "p": 0
        },
        {
          "questionId": "q-7ab6c1d8-1",
          "snapshot": "mid",
          "p": 1
        }
      ],
      "failureRate": {
        "birth": {
          "failed": 0,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0
        },
        "mid": {
          "failed": 0,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "armLabel": "ref-0.5",
      "n": 28,
      "meanBrierQuestionWeighted": 0.25,
      "meanBrierEventWeighted": 0.25,
      "ci95": {
        "lo": 0.25,
        "hi": 0.25
      },
      "meanLogScore": 0.6931471805599453,
      "unclippedEndpointForecasts": [],
      "failureRate": {
        "birth": {
          "failed": 0,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0
        },
        "mid": {
          "failed": 0,
          "assigned": 28,
          "rate": 0
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "reliability": {
    "fable": [
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.034,
        "meanOutcome": 0,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.09000000000000001,
        "meanOutcome": 0.16666666666666666,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.308,
        "meanOutcome": 0,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.7050000000000001,
        "meanOutcome": 0.5,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0.16666666666666666,
          "hi": 0.8333333333333334
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.9499999999999998,
        "meanOutcome": 1,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 1,
          "hi": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prod": [
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.044000000000000004,
        "meanOutcome": 0.2,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.6
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.11666666666666668,
        "meanOutcome": 0.3333333333333333,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.6666666666666666
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.30599999999999994,
        "meanOutcome": 0.2,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.42857142857142855
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.7966666666666667,
        "meanOutcome": 0.3333333333333333,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.6666666666666666
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.96,
        "meanOutcome": 0.6666666666666666,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0.2,
          "hi": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "kimi-k2.6": [
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.054000000000000006,
        "meanOutcome": 0,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.11600000000000002,
        "meanOutcome": 0.2,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.6
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.246,
        "meanOutcome": 0.4,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.8
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.5519999999999999,
        "meanOutcome": 0.2,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.6
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.8879999999999999,
        "meanOutcome": 0.8,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0.25,
          "hi": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "glm-4.6": [
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.08,
        "meanOutcome": 0.4,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.8
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.19999999999999998,
        "meanOutcome": 0.16666666666666666,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 5,
        "meanForecast": 0.55,
        "meanOutcome": 0.2,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.6
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.7916666666666666,
        "meanOutcome": 0.3333333333333333,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0,
          "hi": 0.75
        }
      },
      {
        "n": 6,
        "meanForecast": 0.8799999999999999,
        "meanOutcome": 0.6666666666666666,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0.3333333333333333,
          "hi": 1
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "murphy": {
    "fable": {
      "reliability": 0.027947023809523817,
      "resolution": 0.14625850340136054,
      "uncertainty": 0.22959183673469385
    },
    "prod": {
      "reliability": 0.08085214285714287,
      "resolution": 0.02959183673469387,
      "uncertainty": 0.22959183673469385
    },
    "kimi-k2.6": {
      "reliability": 0.03306719999999999,
      "resolution": 0.07360000000000001,
      "uncertainty": 0.2176
    },
    "glm-4.6": {
      "reliability": 0.09516607142857142,
      "resolution": 0.033163265306122444,
      "uncertainty": 0.22959183673469385
    }
  },
  "updating": {
    "fable": {
      "completeCase": {
        "dropped": 0,
        "n": 28,
        "meanChange": -0.04577142857142858,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.13790666666666673,
          "hi": 0.031008000000000004
        }
      },
      "noNewArticles": {
        "n": 2,
        "meanChange": -0.0007499999999999937,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.0007499999999999937,
          "hi": -0.0007499999999999937
        }
      },
      "imputation05": {
        "n": 28,
        "meanChange": -0.04577142857142858,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.13790666666666673,
          "hi": 0.031008000000000004
        }
      }
    },
    "prod": {
      "completeCase": {
        "dropped": 2,
        "n": 26,
        "meanChange": -0.09089615384615382,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.20999166666666666,
          "hi": 0.0278818181818182
        }
      },
      "noNewArticles": {
        "n": 0,
        "meanChange": null,
        "ci95": null
      },
      "imputation05": {
        "n": 28,
        "meanChange": -0.09234999999999997,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.20739230769230768,
          "hi": 0.019072000000000006
        }
      }
    },
    "kimi-k2.6": {
      "completeCase": {
        "dropped": 3,
        "n": 25,
        "meanChange": -0.024864000000000025,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.1321791666666667,
          "hi": 0.07450434782608692
        }
      },
      "noNewArticles": {
        "n": 0,
        "meanChange": null,
        "ci95": null
      },
      "imputation05": {
        "n": 28,
        "meanChange": -0.031125000000000024,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.12763703703703705,
          "hi": 0.058075
        }
      }
    },
    "glm-4.6": {
      "completeCase": {
        "dropped": 0,
        "n": 28,
        "meanChange": -0.1307285714285714,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.25455357142857143,
          "hi": -0.024582142857142858
        }
      },
      "noNewArticles": {
        "n": 2,
        "meanChange": 0.11875000000000001,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": 0.11875000000000001,
          "hi": 0.11875000000000001
        }
      },
      "imputation05": {
        "n": 28,
        "meanChange": -0.1307285714285714,
        "ci95": {
          "lo": -0.25455357142857143,
          "hi": -0.024582142857142858
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "voidBound": {
    "contrast": "fable-minus-prod",
    "completeCase": {
      "resolvedPairs": 28,
      "voidPairs": 0,
      "voidDroppedIncomplete": 0,
      "bound": {
        "min": -0.1536392857142857,
        "max": -0.1536392857142857
      }
    },
    "imputation05": {
      "resolvedQuestions": 28,
      "voidQuestions": 0,
      "bound": {
        "min": -0.1536392857142857,
        "max": -0.1536392857142857
      }
    }
  },
  "questionFlow": {
    "screenFlagged": 352,
    "screenStruckEvents": 40,
    "wave1": {
      "drafted": 90,
      "draftingDuplicatesStruck": 5,
      "vettingStruckInToto": 85
    },
    "wave2": {
      "drafted": 88,
      "draftingDuplicatesStruck": 4,
      "atomicShortfall": 2,
      "vettingStrikesByReason": {
        "ambiguous-resolution": 53,
        "non-binary": 1,
        "malformed": 1,
        "already-decided-at-birth": 1
      }
    },
    "kept": 28,
    "resolution": {
      "YES": 10,
      "NO": 18,
      "VOID": 0
    }
  },
  "horizonCrosstab": {
    "note": "PREREG §1.2 preregistered descriptive stratification: kept questions by event birth DATE (UTC calendar date of the raw manifest birth) x horizon band, horizon = (deadlineUtc - birth) in days at whole-second precision (both sides floored to seconds, deviations row 23); bands 7-13 = [7,14) days, 14-20 = [14,21) days, 21-30 = [21,30] days.",
    "bands": [
      "7-13",
      "14-20",
      "21-30"
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-02",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 3,
        "total": 3
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-05",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 1,
        "total": 1
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-07",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 4,
        "total": 4
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-08",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 1,
        "total": 1
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-11",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 1,
        "total": 1
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-12",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 4,
        "total": 4
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-14",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 4,
        "total": 4
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-16",
        "7-13": 2,
        "14-20": 1,
        "21-30": 3,
        "total": 6
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-17",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 1,
        "total": 1
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-18",
        "7-13": 0,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 1,
        "total": 1
      },
      {
        "birthDate": "2026-06-19",
        "7-13": 1,
        "14-20": 0,
        "21-30": 1,
        "total": 2
      }
    ],
    "totals": {
      "birthDate": "TOTAL",
      "7-13": 3,
      "14-20": 1,
      "21-30": 24,
      "total": 28
    }
  },
  "crowdCaseStudies": [],
  "crowdCaseStudiesNote": "crowd-anchors.json absent — anchors are retrieved during the resolution/analysis phase (§8); empty array emitted",
  "cost": {
    "draft": {
      "calls": 96,
      "cost": 1.1682826155000003
    },
    "identity-assert": {
      "calls": 3,
      "cost": 0
    },
    "forecast": {
      "calls": 158,
      "cost": 1.4776627983479995
    }
  }
}